Posted on 11/05/2002 6:40:13 AM PST by End Times Sentinel
HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) -- Rep. George W. Gekas said he wasn't worried about his chances Tuesday, when voters in one central Pennsylvania district decided which incumbent congressman they wanted to keep.
"I expect the numbers will be favorable," Gekas, stumping in his hometown, said Monday in predicting the results of his race against Democratic Rep. Tim Holden -- one of four campaigns nationwide in which incumbents were pitted against each other as a result of redistricting.
"I'm judging from where I go and how I'm received," Gekas said, "and I have a feeling of confidence."
But ranking Republicans in Harrisburg and Washington agreed that the white-knuckle race likely would be decided Tuesday by one or two percentage points -- and that a Gekas victory is far from certain.
As he sought out voters on Harrisburg's main drag Monday morning, a group of men hanging out in a doorway gave Gekas a thumbs-up. Cars honked their support. And Mary McArthur of Harrisburg, spotting Gekas through a storefront window, popped outside to declare: "I'm a Democrat, but I'm voting for you."
Even so, Republicans were banking on a low turnout -- and poor weather -- in the U.S. House district in central Pennsylvania to put a lid on the support garnered by Holden among GOP faithful throughout the campaign. Holden, who is seeking a sixth term, has always run, and won, in districts dominated by Republican voters.
"I think it's really going to come down to turnout," state GOP Chairman Alan Novak said. Gekas "has come from behind" but "it's inevitable it would be close," Novak said.
Holden, meanwhile, held a late-afternoon "Rally in the Alley" block party Monday at his campaign headquarters near the state Capitol in his last-day attempt to pump up supporters and motivate voters to the polls.
"We can't have one Democrat that's on our side to stay home," said Leo W. Gerard, international president of United Steelworkers of America. He was joined by union members for nurses, firefighters, government employees and black community leaders.
Holden said the election likely would not be decided before 10 p.m. Tuesday, and might even be called around midnight. Polls close at 8 p.m.
"We've got to get our people out to vote -- and I don't just mean Democrats," Holden said. "I mean people where we have support. And that's what it's going to come down to."
The tightness of the race in the 17th Congressional District mirrored federal elections nationwide. Six seats will determine the balance of power in the House next year, a margin that U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., described as "tissue-paper thin" during a Capitol rally for Republicans Gekas, Rep. Joe Pitts, and gubernatorial hopeful state Attorney General Mike Fisher.
Gently poking at Gekas's tenure in the House, where he has served for 20 years, Specter described the 72-year-old lawmaker as "on the verge of challenging Strom Thurmond in seniority in the United States Congress." Thurmond, the retiring Republican senator from South Carolina, has served in the U.S. Senate for 48 years and turns 100 next month.
The 17th District race was the marquee House election in Pennsylvania this year, although at least two other elections -- both in the Philadelphia suburbs -- are expected to be close.
Both Democratic candidates in those races -- education policy guru Dan Wofford in the 6th District and incumbent Rep. Joe Hoeffel in the 13th -- were hoping to coattail on a strong party turnout for former Philadelphia Mayor Ed Rendell, who is running for governor. But polls have consistently shown GOP state Sen. Jim Gerlach leading Wofford, and Republican challenger Melissa Brown, an ophthalmologist, appeared to be surging against Hoeffel.
"These are just going to be incredibly close elections," said Villanova University congressional scholar John R. Johannes. "If I were a betting man, I'd head for the sidelines."
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Holden plays well in this district. He's pro-gun and pro-life, and looks far more energetic than the cadaver that is Gekas. This district was drawn for Gekas and he blew it - now the utterly ineffective Holden will hold it for the next 20 years.
The topping was when, during a debate Holden was bemoaning the thousands of manufacturing jobs lost in the district since 2000, and said how those people were now working at "Arby's and Burger King"
Gekas responded that we ought to be happy that those "burger joints" are around to give work. Yeah, that went over great. Gekas is a dope.
Also, I thought he should have emphasized Holden's vote against impeachment. At the time, 80% of the people in our district favored Clinton't impeachment but Holden caved to his party leadership.
It still will boil down to turnout as to who wins. So far, from what I've heard, it's been fairly heavy.
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