Here's my prediction: Lincoln Chaffe will use these very same accusations as HIS reason for leaving the Republican party.
NewsMax.com
Monday, Nov. 4
Georgia 'Shocker': Cleland in Trouble
Democrat Sen. Max Cleland "should have coasted to an easy re-election,” UPI noted Monday, but his votes against the popular Bush administration have hurt him. The latest poll, released Sunday by Zogby International, indicated Republican challenger Saxby Chambliss "had a slight edge,” the leftist Atlanta Journal-Constitution admitted Monday. A previous poll by the J-C showed Cleland with "a slim lead.” Says UPI: "This race could be the shocker of 2002 and is now on the watch list.”
Louisiana: It Ain't Over
In the Bayou nonpartisan system of congressional elections, the top finishers have a run-off a month later if no one gets 50 percent plus one. Democrat Sen. Mary Landrieu has been running in the mid-40s for most of the fall, according to UPI and the New Orleans Times-Picayune. If she falls short of 50 percent, control of the Senate might not be decided until early December.
New Hampshire: Bob Smith the Wild Card?
The U.S. Senate race between Democrat Gov. Jeanne Shaheen and Republican U.S. Rep. John E. Sununu is statistically dead even, according to a new Concord Monitor poll. The polls shows Shaheen with 47 percent, Sununu with 46 percent, and 4 percent undecided. Three percent of voters said they planned either to write in U.S. Sen. Bob Smith, who lost September's GOP primary to Sununu, or to vote for Libertarian Ken Blevens or another candidate. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points. Smith has rejected any write-in effort and endorsed Sununu.
Minnesota: Coleman Nips at Mondale
A poll conducted for the Pioneer Press/Minnesota Public Radio showed Sunday that Republican Senate nominee Norm Coleman had 47 percent to 41 percent for Democrat Walter Mondale, within the margin of sampling error. The latest Star Tribune Minnesota Poll, conducted Wednesday through Friday and published Sunday, showed Mondale at 46 percent and Coleman at 41 percent, but that also falls within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
Missouri: Talent Even With Carnahan
Unelected Democrat incumbent Sen. Jean Carnahan and GOP challenger Jim Talent each had 46 percent of likely voters, according to a Zogby International poll done for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and released Sunday. Six percent remain undecided.
Illinois: Ryan Catches Up
In the race for governor, Republican Jim Ryan had pulled even with Democrat Rod Blagojevich, according to a poll published Sunday, the Copley News Service reported.
Iowa: Harkin Leads Ganske
Democrat Sen. Tom Harkin led Republican challenger Greg Ganske in the statewide Iowa Poll published Sunday by the Des Moines Register, 50 percent to 41 percent, with 4 percent of voters undecided. Harkin held a more than 20-point lead in a statewide poll published over the weekend by the Cedar Rapids Gazette.
Colorado: Strickland or Allard?
The latest Denver Post/9News/KOA poll has Democrat challenger Tom Strickland leading, 42 percent to GOP Sen. Wayne Allard's 41 percent, based on interviews ending Friday, but a new poll by MSNBC says Strickland has jumped out to a huge lead of 53 percent to 44 percent.
Arkansas: Huckabee Lead Steady; Pryor Pulls Ahead
An MSNBC/Arkansas Gazette/Zogby Poll shows Gov. Mike Huckabee ahead 51 percent to 40 percent. Huckabee leads big in the north, but he and Democrat Jimmie Lou Fisher are tied in the rest of the state.
For the Senate race, Mark Pryor has pulled way ahead in the new Zogby poll and leads Republican Sen. Tim Hutchinson 55 percent to 44 percent. The latest poll by the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette showed Pryor leading by a margin of 53 percent to 42 percent.
Texas: Open Senate Seat up for Grabs
The Dallas Morning News and the Houston Chronicle report this morning that Democrat Ron Kirk trails Republican state Attorney General John Cornyn by 6 to 9 points. However, a recent MSNBC-Zogby poll puts the race almost even. Bush is expected in the state today for a final campaign swing.
New York: Pataki Holds Lead
A Newsday/NY1 poll shows Democrat challenger Carl McCall trailing Gov. George Pataki 43 percent to 27 percent - with Independence candidate Tom Golisano trailing in third place with 16 percent.
New Hampshire: Sununu Slips to Even With Shaheen
In the race for the Senate, Republican Rep. John Sununu, once leading by 15 points, has slipped to a statistical dead heat with Democrat Gov. Jeanne Shaheen.
North Carolina: Dole Loses Ground
Republican Elizabeth Dole has lost ground to Democrat Erskine Bowles in the race for Sen. Jesse Helms' seat. The latest poll still has her 10-point lead diminishing to 6 points.
Friday, Nov. 1
California: 'Poll Holds a Warning for Davis'
Look out, Gov. Gray Davis: "An unusually high share of still-undecided voters in a Field Poll released Thursday suggests Davis' seven-point margin (41 percent to 34 percent), unchanged since July despite his $67 million war chest, could be undercut," the Sacramento Bee reported Friday in a story headlined "Poll holds a warning for Davis."
However, the poll showed GOP nominee Bill Simon "had yet to generate the support from crossover Democrats and nonpartisan voters that Republicans typically need" to win in the increasingly Democrat-dominated state.
Minnesota: Dems' Exploitation of Wellstone Backfires
As some experts predicted, there appears to be a voter backlash against Democrat pick Walter Mondale after the disgraceful way Democrats hooted and hollered at a partisan "memorial service" for the late Sen. Paul Wellstone. The St. Paul Pioneer Press reported Friday that because of "the uproar," a Democrat aide admitted, "virtually overnight, polls moved against the Democrats, making the Senate race very tight."
A Minneapolis Star Tribune poll taken from Wednesday through Friday had Mondale at 46% and Coleman at 41%, but that's within the poll's margin for error. In other words, it's a dead heat.
Texas: Republicans Look Safe
Republican Gov. Rick Perry led Democrat challenger Tony Sanchez 50 percent to 35 percent, despite the whopping $59 million that businessman Sanchez has already spent in the gubernatorial race, according to a poll conducted for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
The survey showed that Republican candidate John Cornyn led Democrat nominee Ron Kirk 44 percent to 35 percent in the race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Phil Gramm.
Colorado: Allard Leads, but Only Within Margin of Error
Sen. Wayne Allard leads Democrat challenger Tom Strickland 43 percent to 39 percent, according to a Talmey-Drake poll of 501 likely voters published in the Rocky Mountain News. The New York Times reports that 18 percent of voters are still undecided over this race.
New Jersey: Lautenberg Lengthening Lead, Sort Of
Democrat Frank Lautenberg, 78, has increased his lead over Republican Douglas Forrester, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll, which gives Lautenberg a 50 to 39 percent lead among likely voters, closely approximating the results of the four other polls that came out this weekend.
The odd thing in the Quinnipiac poll is that in that both Lautenberg and Forrester seem to have lost support, with Lautenberg getting two percent fewer 'votes' and Forrester getting 4% fewer than last week.
Hawaii: There Will Be a Female Governor
In the race for governor, Republican Linda Lingle has 44 percent and Democrat Mazie Hirono has 43 percent, according to the latest Honolulu Advertiser/News 8 Hawaii Poll. Thursday, Oct. 31
Michigan: Posthumus Lags Behind Granholm
Jennifer Granholm, the Democrat candidate for governor, had a 13-point lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Dick Posthumus in a Detroit Free Press/WXYZ-TV poll of 513 registered voters. Granholm led 54 percent to 41 percent, with only 5 percent undecided. The survey was taken Oct. 27-29 and had a margin of error of 4.5 percent.
Wisconsin: GOP Governor in Trouble
The latest Badger Poll, conducted by the University of Wisconsin Survey Center Oct. 24-29, had Democrat challenger Jim Doyle leading incumbent Republican Gov. Scott McCallum 41 percent to 34 percent. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel poll of 501 likely voters had a 4.5-point margin of error.
South Dakota: Double Hope for Republicans
In this crucial race, which could determine who controls the Senate, incumbent Democrat Tim Johnson is still in trouble. The latest Mason-Dixon poll has him with 47 percent and GOP challenger Rep. John Thune with 45 percent. Fox News reported Thursday that some polls show Thune ahead, but none have either candidate with an advantage greater than a poll's margin of error.
President Bush is campaigning hard for Thune, and Senate plurality leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., is trying to help his protege Johnson.
Republican Gov. Bill Janklow led Democrat attorney Stephanie Herseth for South Dakota's only U.S. House seat, 47 percent to 42 percent, in a KELO-TV poll of 600 likely voters conducted Oct. 1-7, United Press International reported Thursday. The poll had a margin of error of 4 percent.
North Carolina: Dole's Lead Narrows
Republican Elizabeth Dole's once-formidable lead over Clinton Democrat Erskine Bowles has shrunk to 6 percentage points in the race to replace Sen. Jesse Helms, according a Mason-Dixon poll released Wednesday. Only two weeks ago, she led by 10 percentage points.
South Carolina: Republicans Strong
In the race for governor, Republican Mark Sanford has widened his lead over incumbent Democrat Jim Hodges, 49 percent to 42 percent, a statewide voter poll shows. In the race to replace GOP Sen. Strom Thurmond, Republican Lindsey Graham leads Democrat Alex Sanders, 53 percent to 36 percent, a Mason-Dixon poll reveals.
Minnesota: Dead Heat in That Other Race
Though the attention has been on the U.S. Senate, the governor's race is a nail-biter. In a poll published Wednesday by the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Republican Tim Pawlenty had 33 percent, Democrat Roger Moe had 29 percent, Independence Party nominee Tim Penny fell to 19 percent, and Green Party candidate Ken Pentel had 5 percent. The difference between Pawlenty and Moe was within the poll's margin of error.
Arizona: Salmon Swims After Napolitano
Republican Matt Salmon has narrowed the gap against Democrat Janet Napolitano in race for governor. She leads him 42 percent to 37 percent in a telephone poll of 600 registered voters published Wednesday in the Arizona Republic.
Two third-party candidates had support from a combined 9 percent of those surveyed, and 11 percent remained undecided.
New York: Pataki Whomps McCall
Gov. George Pataki has a 20-point lead over Democrat challenger Carl McCall, with a third-party billionaire candidate running 30 points behind the two-term Republican, a statewide poll showed Wednesday. The poll, from Marist College's Institute for Public Opinion, had Pataki leading McCall 47 percent to 27 percent among likely voters, with Tom Golisano at 17 percent.
Florida: Bush Forges Ahead
Gov. Jeb Bush leads Democrat challenger Bill McBride 51 percent to 43 percent in the final week of the race, according to a telephone poll of likely voters conducted for the Orlando Sentinel, WESH/NewsChannel 2 and other Florida media. Also, the poll shows one in five Democrats supports Bush.
Vermont: A Serious Republican Candidate
In left-wing Vermont, home to America's only admitted socialist congressman, Republican Jim Douglas has a chance to replace Democrat Gov. Howard Dean, who is retiring to launch a doomed campaign for president. Democrat nominee Doug Racine had 42 percent in one poll, with 37 percent for Douglas, 12 percent for independent Cornelius "Con" Hogan, 2 percent divided among seven little-known candidates and 9 percent undecided, the Associated Press reported Wednesday.
Wednesday, Oct. 30
Georgia: Chambliss Gains on Cleland
An independent poll shows the lead of Sen. Max Cleland, D-Ga., down to around 6 percentage points against challenger Rep. C. Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga., prompting President Bush to schedule campaign stops in the state Saturday.
Daily tracking polls show an even closer race, with the two almost dead even, the Washington Times reported Wednesday.
Maryland: Kennedy Townsend Trails Ehrlich
In the race for governor, Republican Bob Ehrlich leads Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend 48 percent to 44 percent, according to a new Maryland Poll by for the Baltimore Sun and the Gazette newspapers. Ehrlich's lead just exceeds the poll's margin of error, which is 3.4 percentage points.
In the last Maryland Poll a month ago, Townsend led by 2 percentage points. With her visibility as lieutenant governor, her famous name and the advantage of campaigning in a heavily Democrat state, she had once been considered a shoo-in.
South Carolina: Republican Graham Poised for Victory
Republican U.S. Rep. Lindsey Graham faces Democrat Alex Sanders in the race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Strom Thurmond.
"Polls have shown Graham leading Sanders by as many as 17 percentage points," the Associated Press reported Wednesday.
Minnesota: Mondale Leads Coleman
The latest Minnesota Poll by the pro-Democrat Minneapolis Star Tribune shows Democrat Walter Mondale "with a comfortable 47 percent to 39 percent lead" over Republican Senate nominee Norm Coleman. The survey was taken before Democrats came under fire for turning Paul Wellstone's memorial service into a foot-stomping campaign rally.
Earlier, the Evans-Novak newsletter reported that a GOP poll showed Mondale with 2 percent lead over Coleman.
Illinois: Blagojevich Leads Ryan
In the race for governor, a Chicago Sun-Times/Fox News Chicago Poll had Democrat Rod Blagojevich leading Republican Jim Ryan 50 percent to 38 percent.
Tuesday, Oct. 29
Massachusetts: O'Brien Inches Past Romney
Democrat gubernatorial nominee Shannon O'Brien leads GOP rival Mitt Romney 44 percent to 38 percent, narrowly outside the poll's margin of error, a new Boston Herald poll shows.
``This is the first time since the primary that Shannon O'Brien's lead is beyond the margin, and it suggests that her position has solidified in the past two weeks,'' said Herald pollster R. Kelly Myers.
Arkansas: Hutchinson, Pryor Close
Republican Sen. Tim Hutchinson is even with Democrat nominee Mark Pryor, the son of former Sen. David Pryor, but has not been above 50 percent in any independent poll all year. "Pryor remains a slight favorite here," United Press International reported.
Missouri: Carnahan in Trouble
GOP challenger Jim Talent has 47 percent and Democrat Sen. Jean Carnahan has 46 percent in poll by KOMU-TV. "Turnout in St. Louis" – where massive Democrat fraud occurred in the 2000 election – "will decide this race," UPI reported.
South Dakota: Daschle's Protege at Risk of Losing
GOP Rep. John Thune is challenging Democrat Sen. Tim Johnson in what UPI calls "perhaps the nation's most hotly contested Senate race." Since July 4, every independent poll has shown this race to be within any survey's 4 percent margin of error. The mid-October Zogby poll had Thune ahead by 2 points with 10 percent undecided.
Wild card: Democrats were caught registering dead Indians to "vote."
Minnesota: Tight Race Between Mondale and Coleman
A GOP poll of 600 likely voters conducted Sunday night, two days after Sen. Paul Wellstone's death in a plane crash, showed probable replacement Walter Mondale with 45 percent and Republican nominee Norm Coleman with 43 percent. That is a statistical tie, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
Hawaii: Finally a Republican Governor?
Linda Lingle, former mayor of Maui County, hopes to become the Aloha State's first GOP governor since 1962. A new Honolulu Advertiser poll of 750 likely voters found her ahead of her Democrat opponent, Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono, by 44 percent to 40 percent, the Washington Times reported. However, an Oct. 17-24 survey of 600 likely voters for the Honolulu Star-Bulletin had each candidate with 40 percent. Two months earlier, the same poll had Lingle leading 43 percent to 31 percent.
Though Hawaii is once of the most left-wing states, constant Democrat scandals are finally hurting the party. The Times noted, "Eight Hawaii public officials — all Democrats — went to jail in the last 18 months on charges ranging from ethics violations to embezzlement."
California: Unpopular Davis Leads Unpopular Simon
California Gov. Gray Davis, seeking re-election, leads GOP nominee Bill Simon 45 percent to 36 percent among likely voters, according to the latest poll by the left-wing Los Angeles Times, completed Sunday night. Eleven percent backed other candidates, and 8 percent were undecided. The numbers were largely unchanged from a poll the Times conducted four weeks ago.
"Davis' advantage stems almost entirely from the fact that, unpopular as he is, Simon is held in even worse regard," the Times reported.
Monday, Oct. 28
U.S. House: Neither Party Leads
The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll on the races for control of the House of Representatives is inconclusive. The "generic" congressional ballot shows that 49 percent of likely voters say they will vote for the Democrat candidate in their district, and 46 percent will vote for the Republican. Because that 3-point difference is within the poll's margin of error (plus or minus 4 points), the outcome is too close to call.
Colorado: Tight Race for U.S. Senate
Republican Sen. Wayne Allard, seeking re-election, led Democrat Tom Strickland 41 percent to 37 percent in a Denver Post/Ciruli Associates poll of 400 likely voters queried Oct. 19-22 and released Thursday. He gained 1 percent since the last Denver Post poll, but 19 percent were undecided, and Allard's lead was within the poll's 4.9 percent margin of error, United Press International reported Monday.
A Rocky Mountain News/News4 poll of 501 likely voters conducted Oct. 22-24 had Strickland ahead 39 percent to 38 percent with 23 percent undecided, a statistical tie well within the poll's 4.4 percent margin of error.
President Bush campaigned Monday for Allard. Andy Busch, associate professor of political science at University of Denver, told UPI that the visit should motivate Republican voters to turn out and "could sway some of the undecided voters, probably not a huge number."
North Carolina: Bowles Nips at Dole
Challenged by Democrat Erskine Bowles, who was Bill Clinton's White House chief of staff, Republican nominee Elizabeth Dole "has seen her lead in the polls dwindle from 60-30 in July, before the primary elections, to 49-35 in September and to 50-40 in mid-October in the last two Mason Dixon polls," the Charlotte Observer reported Sunday. "Worried? You bet."
They are vying to replace Sen. Jesse Helms.
New Jersey: Lautenberg Leads Forrester
Democrat former Sen. Frank Lautenberg, a replacement for the disgraced and unpopular Sen. Robert Torricelli, had a 9-point lead over Republican businessman Doug Forrester, UPI reported Monday. Forrester had a 13-point lead in the polls when Torricelli dropped out Sept. 30.
A Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 16-20 found Lautenberg leading Forrester 52 percent to 43 percent, the Washington Times reported Monday.
New Hampshire: Too Close to Call
New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, facing Republican Rep. John Sununu for a seat in the U.S. Senate, has cut his lead in polls to just 2 points, UPI reported Monday.
However, a Becker Institute poll conducted Oct. 22-23 and released Monday shows Shaheen leading Sununu 48 percent to 42 percent, with 2 percent for Blevins and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 5 percent.
Tennessee: Alexander Ahead
Republican former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander, seeking to succeed GOP Sen. Fred Thompson, leads Democrat Rep. Bob Clement 50 percent to 40 percent with 10 percent undecided in a Mason-Dixon poll of 625 likely voters Oct. 21-23. The poll had an error rate of 4 percent.
A poll conducted for the Nashville Tennessean and the Chattanooga Times Free Press also had Alexander ahead by 10 points, though Clement has gained from previous polls, the Tennessean reported Monday. But a survey by WBIR-TV/Survey USA released Wednesday had the race much closer, said UPI, which did not give details.
New York: Pataki Stands Pat
Republican Gov. George Pataki, seeking re-election, maintains a commanding 15-point lead in a SurveyUSA/ABC News poll of likely New York voters. The survey of 576 likely voters, conducted Oct. 22 and 23, found Pataki with 44 percent, Democrat state Comptroller Carl McCall with 29 percent, Independence Party candidate B. Thomas Golisano with 23 percent and Right to Life candidate Gerard Cronin with 1 percent. The poll had a margin error of plus or minus 4.2 percent.
* * * Sunday, Oct. 27
Florida: Jeb's Lead Widens
Bush 51 percent
McBride 43 percent
The Herald/St. Petersburg Times Poll October 27, 2002
Analysis: Bush's lead has widened from his 50 to 44 advantage four weeks ago.