Poll shows independents tipped scales to GOP (Minnesota)

A new Pioneer Press poll shows Republicans swept to victory in Minnesota's top races Tuesday by doing what both major parties sought to do nationwide: winning vast amounts of independents' votes.

The poll also confirmed that a unique Minnesota event — the controversial Paul Wellstone memorial that took on the tone of a Democratic rally — was the turning point that drove previously undecided voters to Republican Norm Coleman rather than Democrat Walter Mondale in the U.S. Senate race.

"You've got a situation where anywhere from one out of four to one out of five got on his bandwagon after the memorial service," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., which conducted the poll of 625 registered voters contacted Wednesday and Thursday. The poll is the first glimpse at Minnesota voters' motivations; a nationwide exit-polling firm failed to deliver results on election night, leaving a gap where there is usually data about what types of people supported each of the major candidates.

Wellstone's service, televised live one week before the election, took on a decidedly partisan tone. Republican U.S. Sen. Trent Lott and Independence Party Gov. Jesse Ventura were booed by many in the crowd of 20,000, and longtime Wellstone friend Rick Kahn implored everyone to "help us win this election for Paul Wellstone!'"

Larry Sabato, University of Virginia political scientist who closely watches elections around the country, said the memorial was "quite possibly the most serious mistake made by a political party in recent memory anywhere. … It offended Republicans, of course, but it also offended independents."

High-profile Democrats apologized for the event's political tone, Republicans decried the event and Gov. Jesse Ventura, who walked out in the middle, used his bully pulpit to say he felt abused and manipulated.

"I am solidly convinced (Coleman's boost) was the result of the Wellstone memorial and the governor throwing gasoline on the fire. … The governor gave Coleman an assist," said Coker.

The poll showed that the majority — two-thirds — of people who do not identify with any party went for Coleman in the Senate race. That's more than a third of his total vote, according to the poll.

The margin of error in the poll is plus or minus 4 percentage points on data from the entire group of people surveyed, but higher for subgroups.

Many independent voters across the nation tilted toward Republican candidates, leading the GOP to victory in tight races, said Sabato.

"The memorial service ticked me off. I like Mondale as a man, and I leaned a little bit, but when they turned it into a political rally, it really soured me," said Colbenson, 74, of Windom. He also said he liked Coleman's pro-gun, anti-tax stances.

In the governor's race, independent voters also boosted Pawlenty to victory. Nearly half of people who do not identify with a party voted for him.

That's a crucial part of the electorate. Like Coleman, Pawlenty owes a third of his votes to people who don't cleave to any party or to people who consider themselves Independence Party voters.

Far more than Democratic-Farmer-Labor candidate Roger Moe, Pawlenty also benefited from voters' slide away from the Independence Party's Tim Penny.

Although polling in the summer and fall showed the governor's race nearly a dead heat between Pawlenty, Moe and Penny, in the campaign's last few weeks voters began slipping away from Penny. On Election Day, Pawlenty ended up with 44 percent of the vote, Moe got 36 percent and Penny had just 16 percent.

Although voters saw Penny as having a strong character and solid experience, they weren't swayed by his positions in education or social and moral issues, according to the poll.

Moe got his largest chunk of support — about a third — from voters who liked his position on education. He was endorsed by the state's teachers union and campaigned on his intent to improve schools through more funding.

More than a quarter of Pawlenty voters said they liked his stand on social and moral issues and that's primarily why they voted for him.

Although Pawlenty is anti-abortion and pro-gun, he didn't really campaign on those issues. He did, however, have powerful and well-organized friends who campaigned on his behalf on those issues.

Both Minnesota Citizens Concerned for Life, the state's largest anti-abortion organization, and the National Rifle Association endorsed him. Both sent mailings to their members encouraging them to vote for Pawlenty.

Pawlenty also pledged not to raise taxes, despite a projected $3 billion state budget deficit.

While one of seven Moe voters and one of six Penny voters think the new governor and Legislature will rely only on tax increases to balance the budget, only one Pawlenty voter in 20 thinks that would be his sole solution, according to the poll.

"The people who voted for Pawlenty were pretty convinced he would not raise taxes," said Lilly Goren, chair of the political science department at the College of St. Catherine's. Forty-seven percent of his voters think he will not go near the idea.

"A full half of the people expect him to do this by cutting spending. They don't even want to hear the word taxes come off his lips. … They are taking him at his word," said Coker.

Still, more than half of all voters and more than a third of Pawlenty voters expect tax increases to be at least part of the solution.

David Nething, a 74-year-old retired farmer from Litchfield, said he voted for Pawlenty because of his fiscal policies. "The Democrats have the best intentions, but the stuff they want to give away costs money, and someone has to pay for it," Nething said.

As the race grew closer and people got to know Pawlenty and Moe, they also moved away from Penny and Green Party candidate Ken Pentel.

That was largely because people became more impressed by someone else, or because they didn't want to "waste" their votes on someone who didn't appear likely to win, according to the poll.

The wasted-vote factor is something Pentel finds disappointing. Two percent of voters went for Pentel in the election.

The solution, he said, is to allow instant runoff voting, which would allow voters to rank candidates in order of preference.

"People want the variety, and they would probably like to relieve themselves of the wasted-vote feeling," he said.

Losing those votes came at a high price for the Greens. Because they didn't get 5 percent of the vote in any statewide election, the Greens lost major-party status. That means no public financing in the next election, and higher hurdles for getting on the ballot.

Kevin Jones was one voter who veered away from Greens to vote for Moe and Mondale.

"I kind of wanted to vote for the Green Party. … (But) I felt that it was going to be a very tight race," said Jones, 35, of Columbia Heights, who does not align himself with any party.

This poll of Minnesota voters was conducted Wednesday and Thursday for the St. Paul Pioneer Press by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. of Washington, D.C.

The survey included 625 registered voters who said they voted in Tuesday's election. Respondents were chosen by telephone numbers selected at random, and they were interviewed by telephone.

In theory, 19 times out of 20, a sampling of that size should yield results differing by no more than 4 percentage points in either direction from the responses that would be received by questioning the entire population.

The error margin is greater for smaller groups. Errors also can be introduced by the wording of questions and other factors.

This needs a little editing to make it match with reality:

High-profile Democrats saw the poll results the next morning and then apologized for the event's political tone,

Let's give some credit to Jesse Ventura. He behaved like a gentleman and played it like a consummate politician. If not for him, the Wellstone fiasco might not have had such a big impact in Minnesota. He made sure that everyone in the state knew about it and that no one had a chance to forget about it.

Come to think of it, Governor Ventura was a third party candidate in Minnesota.

Way to go, Minnesota -- you folks are not party line voters.

... The poll also confirmed that a unique Minnesota event ? the controversial Paul Wellstone memorial that took on the tone of a Democratic rally ? was the turning point that drove previously undecided voters to Republican Norm Coleman rather than Democrat Walter Mondale in the U.S. Senate race ...
I read an article title at democratunderground.com: HOW DARE THEY TELL US HOW TO MOURN.

How indeed.

Rick Kahn believes he did nothing wrong. I spoke from the heart, he said.

Indeed. The heart. It has a logic all its own.

Apparently all we need to do to win elections is to allow our Democrat brothers and sisters to express themselves and then simply maintain our composure long enough for the electorate to express itself.

I never thought it possible, but our President has created a political environment in which dignity and respect actually mean something.

If not for him, the Wellstone fiasco might not have had such a big impact in Minnesota.

It was not Kaplan or Wellstones Son, or Jesse Ventura's poor little feelings that did Mondale in. It was the picture of Mondale laughting his Butt off with his ole buddy Bill Clinton at Wellstones funeral that did him in.

Voters were offended by Mondale for pretending to be in grief when he was seen laughing his butt off at the memorial service.

We'll likely never know (because they won't talk), but I suspect that at least some of the Minnesota media felt taken for suckers.

Here was a four hour long 'memorial service', carried live, as I understand it, that turned into free campaign propaganda for the DFL.

If I was an executive bean counter at those stations, I'd want to know 'why weren't we paid for this?'

And if I was a reporter with a brain, I'd be thinking 'what kind of fool do they think I am?'

We'll likely never know (because they won't talk), but I suspect that at least some of the Minnesota media felt taken for suckers.

We do know, because some of them have talked.

The news director for KSTP has explicitly stated that he was suckered, and that he and the station management had discussed pulling the plug while the broadcast was in progress.

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