Posted on 11/13/2002 9:45:07 PM PST by scannell
Landrieu on top in SLU poll
11/12/2002
HAMMOND -- A poll released Tuesday by Southeastern Louisiana University shows incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu leading Republican challenger Suzanne Haik Terrell in the U.S. Senate runoff. Landrieu received 51.4 percent to Terrell’s 36.4 percent in the poll of 554 Louisiana voters. Just over 12 percent of those polled were undecided or refused to state a preference. According to SLU associate professor of political science Kurt Corbello, who conducted the survey, turnout among black voters is critical to Landrieu. “The lower black voter turnout versus white voter turnout, the smaller becomes Landrieu’s lead,” Corbello writes. “If black voters turnout at a rate ten percent lower than white turnout, Landrieu leads Terrell by about 50 to 38 percent. At 20 percent lower black turnout, Landrieu leads Terrell by about 48 to 39 percent. If black voter turnout is 30 percent lower than white voter turnout, then Landrieu leads Terrell by only 47 to 41 percent.” According to the survey, Landrieu leads Terrell among women by 55 to 30 percent. Both hold onto their party supporters, though independent voters are split at about 45 to 36 percent. In addition, Landrieu does best in her home region of Southeast Louisiana, leading Terrell by 58 to 30 percent. The margin of error for the poll is 4.2 percent.
Republican candidates recieved 51% of the vote on November 5th and if the two other Republican candidates endorse Suzanne Haik Terrell, Mary Landrieu will be in trouble. IMHO Terrell is in the cat-birds seat and it's her race to lose, Mary Landrieu is out of touch and should be defeated soundly when one considers how fragmented the republican party was in her state. Like I said, It all depends on the republicans uniting behind Terrell. I would like to see 60 republicans in the Senate, but 52 will do just fine :-)
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