1. Lott has said he will not resign from the Senate.
2. Even if he did resign from the Senate, Mississippi must hold an election for a replacement within 90 days. The republican candidate is the overwhelming favorite, as long as he can walk and chew gum at the same time.
3. Assume an interim dem replacement for that 90 days. The senate is still 50-50 and ties are broken with the Vice PResident's vote. We win.
4. So, will Lincoln Chaffee jump ship because of an interim dem replacement for Lott? He would be crazy to do so. We will likely take back the senate in 90 days and he loses his chairmanship because he is no longer with the majority. Plus, the dems will have a very rough time taking the Senate in 2004. Why would he jump ship to a likely minority party in two years?
The reality here is that any way this plays out, the Republicans are likely to keep control of the Senate. Now look at the 'other hand.'
Let's say we give into our fears and keep Lott as SML. Do you think that America would be a better place had Thurmond's Dixiecrats run the country since 1948? Their main platform was segregation now, segregation forever. Real segregation enforced by law.
I for one do not think so. I do not want my party lead by a man who says that he thinks the Dixiecrats being elected would be a peachy idea. Not only is that statement immoral. It is incredibly stupid for him to have done so in front of CSPAN cameras. Had he given this a moment's thought, he would have understood just how stupid that statement would sound.
Either he is a rascist. Or he is very, very stupid. Neither is acceptable in a SML for the Republicans.
Don't blame this on the dems. They can no more resist race-baiting than can a junkie resist a loaded needle. Lott knows that and opened his mouth anyway. Lott has only himself to blame for this fiasco.
Republicans are shooting themselves in the head with this strategy.
I read where there has to be a special election only if the person dies or resigns before the next Congress. If Lott waited until the next session opens, then the Mississippi governor can appoint someone for the remainder of the term, which would be until Jan. 2007 in this case.
Reminds me of that line by DeNiro in "Casino" about the slots manager:
"If he knew about it, he's gone. If he didn't know, then he's too stupid to stay. Either way, he's gone."
With all due respect to Vannrox, I believe your analysis is correct. Lott may be a dolt but he's proven himself unable to control his tongue. All that talk about him resigning his Senate seat is just that. Talk.