Escalation of Drug Use in Early-Onset Cannabis Users vs Co-twin Controls

JAMA ^ | 1/22/2003 | Michael T. Lynskey, PhD; Andrew C. Heath, DPhil; Kathleen K. Bucholz, PhD; Wendy S. Slutske, PhD; Pa

[unspun]

For your perusal. Humbly suggest that comments be focused upon the study and report.

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[Wolfie]

While covariates differed between equations, early regular use of tobacco and alcohol emerged as the 2 factors most consistently associated with later illicit drug use and abuse dependence.

Then why are they hyping cannabis?

[jammer]

Just off the top:
1. Telephone interviews? Ohhhh, no chance for investigator bias there, huh?
2. 69% responding? 31% not responding? Well, better than an internet "survey", I suppose, but there might just be a bit of self-selection there, huh?
3. Causal relationship? Absolutely not shown. Here again, even if this sham were a prospective, double-blind study, the cause is not shown. There may be correlation, but one cannot infer cause.

Our long prior knowledge is reinforced about two things:

1. Psychologists who do research will always come up with the inference that satisfies their employers, i.e., governments who supply grant money.

2. JAMA is a political, quasi-medical, organization who should be ashamed to publish this.

[RonF]

So, what they seemed to have proved is that people who use one drug are quite likely to use another. I don't see where they've proved that use of one particular drug in turn leads to the use of others. Seems to me that you could just as easily, and probably more accurately, sum up the study as "People who are prone to use drugs find marijuana most readily available and inexpensive, and its use easiest to conceal." God knows my 16-year old son would find it a lot easier to buy and use marijuana than tobacco or alcohol.

I don't see anything here to tell me that use of marijuana led to the use of other drugs, and that if the person involved had not used marijuana, they wouldn't have picked up some other drug later on.

[unspun]

The JAMA's report in full, on the twins study, FYI.

[Kerberos]

"The association may arise from the effects of the peer and social context within which cannabis is used and obtained. In particular, early access to and use of cannabis may reduce perceived barriers against the use of other illegal drugs and provide access to these drugs."

Translation: When the subjects learned that they had been lied to about the harmful effects of marijuana and that they did not in fact turn into raping murdering lunatics, they concluded that maybe they had been lied to about other drugs and that it would be ok to try them also.

[bigfootbob]

"The JAMA's report in full, on the twins study, FYI."

Political science as usual. Wonder if these guys have ever worked for the United States Fish and Wildlife Service or the National Marine Fisheries Service?

[Wolfie]

The other glaring error in design study (which they sort of cop to in the quote in my previous post) is that nowhere do they control for what came first. I find it hard to believe that these people didn't try cigarettes and alcohol before marijuana. My guess is this "study" was put together as pure propaganda to counter the RAND study of a few months ago.

[goodnesswins]

DAY of SUPPORT....FLY your flags (US, a British one, Hungarian, Australian and Japanese one, too if you have them)....and put up your BUSH/CHENEY signs, (and the BIG W's on your SUV's) for the STATE of the UNION next Tuesday, Jan 28th, if you support the President, our MILITARY and the United States of America. PSST....pass it on.

[William Terrell]

The JAMA's report in full, on the twins study, FYI.

Calling out the support personal, hey? They'll be here as soon as they can get a pass to use the ward computer.

[RonF]

Then why are they hyping cannabis?

Because alcohol and tobacco producers have already won their battles in the War Against Some Drugs. Big business, don't you know. And they've also proven that Prohibition of their products doesn't work. Whereas Prohibition of cannabis doesn't have any deleterious effects (;P)

[Wolfie]

Its pretty funny though:

"Marijuana, Weed, Cannabis, Dope, Weed, Marijuana,...oh yeah, tobacco and alcohol are the greatest factors in association with later problems, now back to our regularly scheduled program...Marijuana, Weed, Grass, Dope..."

[Hemingway's Ghost]

Devastating? Exactly how so?

Conclusions Associations between early cannabis use and later drug use and abuse/dependence cannot solely be explained by common predisposing genetic or shared environmental factors. The association may arise from the effects of the peer and social context within which cannabis is used and obtained. In particular, early access to and use of cannabis may reduce perceived barriers against the use of other illegal drugs and provide access to these drugs.

I agree it's not as fun as cheering on a cop for gunning down a dog and suggesting everyone "move on," but this is lazy for you, Kevin.

[monkey]

I don't have time to read through the whole thing right now. However, the conclusion:

Associations between early cannabis use and later drug use and abuse/dependence cannot solely be explained by common predisposing genetic or shared environmental factors. The association may arise from the effects of the peer and social context within which cannabis is used and obtained. In particular, early access to and use of cannabis may reduce perceived barriers against the use of other illegal drugs and provide access to these drugs.

is (while not ridiculous) at least overstated, based on first principles. We can't say why people choose marijuana in the first place, they may be inherently greater risk takers, experimenters or whatever. No two people grow up in the same environment, or are biologically identical. Some twins I've known would actually make deliberately different choices in life, in order to show independence from each other. Some people may simply be predisposed to using drugs, and no amount of correcting for other variables is going to capture that fact.

However, this is still the best approach to study the problem. Thanks for the flag.

[Kerberos]

"The other glaring error in design study" Well the whole gateway theory was found to be invalid years ago but I went ahead and started to read some of this as it does present information in some type of factual format. However, after just a couple of page down's it was obvious that it was riddled with so many assumptions and doubletalk as to be meaningless.

I did find the following line interesting.

" Stage theory posits that there is an invariant sequence in initiation and use of drugs, with use of cannabis preceding the use of "hard" drugs such as cocaine and heroin.8-10 This theory has been highly influential in drug policy debates and has provided a major rationale for sustaining prohibition against cannabis,11 as it is assumed that delaying or preventing early cannabis use may reduce risks of other illicit drug use.

So in the one part they are telling you that it is imperative that the gateway theory be validated as that is a key component in supporting the whole prohibition against marijuana, they then go on to tell you in the next part of the sentence that the whole gateway theory is assumed.

[tacticalogic]

The other glaring error in design study (which they sort of cop to in the quote in my previous post) is that nowhere do they control for what came first. I find it hard to believe that these people didn't try cigarettes and alcohol before marijuana. My guess is this "study" was put together as pure propaganda to counter the RAND study of a few months ago.

If I read it correctly, they did identify some individuals who had used some other classes of drugs prior to trying marijuana, and excluded them from the test. They don't seem to have made any attempt to determine if alcohol was used prior to trying marijuana. Curiously, they consider the tendency for an individual to become alcohol dependent after early exposure to marijuana to be of significance.

[unspun]

I picked up those involved in prior discussions, WT.

[William Terrell]

Ok, let me amend my earlier post to, "The drug warrior part of your bump list will be here as soon as they can get a pass to use the ward computer.