Countdown to war

Can Saddam Hussein change? The Iraqi leader must start actively to prove he has no weapons of mass destruction, or the timetable of events suggests he will face war within weeks

MILITARY strategists contend there always has to be some flexibility built into the timetable. And so there is. But for Saddam Hussein, the countdown to war has begun. President George Bush has bluntly indicated that the Iraqi dictator now has only “a matter of weeks” to start actively co-operating with arms inspectors to prove that his country no longer has any programmes connected to nuclear, chemical or biological weapons. Failure to do that would mean America leading an invasion force to topple him, with or without a new United Nations resolution.

The strategy was mapped out when Mr Bush played host to America’s staunchest ally, Britain’s prime minister, Tony Blair, in Washington, DC, on January 31st. Mr Bush said Iraq remains “a danger to the world.” While time will be allowed in which to seek a second UN resolution, a number of countries have already pledged support to America. France and Germany, however, insist on a second resolution before war. Russia supports that view, but may yet line up behind America. Countries in other parts of the world are as divided as Europe, although some, like Australia, have already sent troops to join the 150,000 soldiers massing in the Gulf region.

The next significant event will take place on February 5th, when Colin Powell, America’s secretary of state, presents to the UN Security Council details from intelligence reports. These reports, say members of Mr Bush’s administration, will not only show that Saddam is concealing weapons of mass destruction but that Iraq also has links to al-Qaeda, the terrorist organisation blamed for the September 11th attacks on America.

That evidence is thought to include spy pictures which show Iraqi forces moving weapons material from sites before UN inspectors arrive. As for the links with al-Qaeda, one official has said there are indications that the assassination last October of an American diplomat in Jordan was orchestrated by a Baghdad-based al-Qaeda operative. Once Mr Powell has made his presentation, those countries that have demanded to see a higher standard of proof than America has provided so far will be given only a short time to consider whether or not the new evidence amounts to that.

Meanwhile, the inspections will continue in Iraq as the pressure on Saddam intensifies. Iraq has asked Hans Blix, the chief UN inspector, and Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, to come to Baghdad for talks ahead of the inspectors’ next report to the Security Council, on February 14th. On Friday, Mr ElBaradei said they were willing to go, but only if Iraq made some concessions. These included allowing interviews to be held with Iraqi scientists in the absence of government minders, and letting American spy planes carry out surveillance flights. “We need to make sure before we go that they are ready to move forward on these issues,” said Mr ElBaradei.

In the inspectors' report to the Security Council on January 27th, Mr Blix said Iraq did not appear to have reached a “genuine acceptance” of the disarmament process that was demanded of it. While the inspectors had not found any strong evidence of banned arms activities, plenty of questions remain unanswered. These include the whereabouts of nerve gas, material for biological weapons, more than 500 artillery shells filled with mustard gas and 6,500 chemical bombs. Mr ElBaradei said his team had found no evidence that Iraq had resumed the nuclear programme it discontinued in the early 1990s. He asked for several months to complete the inspection work.

That is unlikely to be granted unless Baghdad shows a change of heart. Whatever progress has been made will be reported back to the Security Council at the February 14th meeting. If Iraq is then still deemed to be prevaricating, that could be the point at which Mr Bush decides whether or not to seek a second resolution from the Security Council.

While members of Mr Bush’s regime say a new UN resolution backing military action against Iraq would be “desirable”, the president has made it clear he is prepared to go to war without one. Such a campaign could be launched swiftly, although it is likely that Saddam will be given one last chance. That might involve his agreeing to go into exile. This idea has been floated by a number of Arab diplomats; Iraq's neighbours are desperate to avoid warfare in the region.

American officials, however, think it highly unlikely that Saddam and members of his regime would ever agree to relinquish power and leave Iraq voluntarily. Some of Saddam’s officials have stated publicly that they will fight to the last. In a few weeks, they may have to.

But for Saddam Hussein, the countdown to war has begun. President George Bush has bluntly indicated that the Iraqi dictator now has only “a matter of weeks” to start actively co-operating with arms inspectors to prove that his country no longer has any programmes connected to nuclear, chemical or biological weapons.

My prediction:

In a few weeks, Saddam will start "actively cooperating" with inspectors. This of course means nothing since, as President Bush reminded us in his SOTU speech, a single "vial, canister or crate" of the WMD Saddam possesses would be quite enough to wreak "a day of horror like none we have ever known," and therefore is more than adequate to deter any US attempt to kill or remove Saddam. Anyway, as a result of the "active cooperation" war will be avoided for another several weeks, at which point the "suffocating heat of the Iraqi summer" will provide the pretext to delay war another six months. This will suit both parties, given the underlying nuclear-biological stalemate that prevails.

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