Stratfor's 2-5 iraq analysis

stratfor ^ | 2-5-2003 | Dr. George Friedman

[jays911]

excellent analysis of the impending war in iraq and its geopolitical consequences.

[Monti Cello]

Most significant, countries like Saudi Arabia and Syria will be living in a new and quite unpleasant world.

Payback's a bitch.

[Libertarianize the GOP]

bump

[mercy]

Look for a reinstitution of the draft soon after Iraq falls. We are going to have to keep at least 250,000 troops in our new protectorate/base of operations for the foreseable future as Islamist terrorism is the new norm from here on.

We'll need another million or so to keep the lid on in fifty or so other trouble spots around the globe.

[RobFromGa]

Great post.

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[68skylark]

We'll need another million or so to keep the lid on in fifty or so other trouble spots around the globe.

There are a lot of people in the U.S. who share your gloomy outlook.

I'm glad to say I'm not one of them -- I think the people of Iraq will be happy to be liberated. Muslims in other countries will likely grumble about our actions, but on the other hand everybody admires a winner. And when they see the people of Iraq aren't badly treated I think the overall reaction will be muted.

We're soon going to see if you're right -- it won't take long after the war begins to see how the population of Iraq (and the rest of the region) react to Saddam's overthrow.

[bert]

Saudi Arabia is part and parcel of the planning. Rather than being surrounded, Saudi Arabia will be at the center.

Power radiates from the center.

Stratfor sees the situation, but misses the objective.

[GiovannaNicoletta]

bump

[gaspar]

I disagree. The report was the usual mish-mash. Dr. Friedman, whose claim to fame is an office in Austin, Texas and, formerly, a mini-think tank at LSU, seems incapable of organizing an essay or even using sub-chapter headings to help organize his thoughts. Thus it comes off as the blatherings of a drunk at a 2AM faculty blow-out. The only thing that was missing was "heartland" and "rimland", and, frankly, his loose use of "geopolitics", (which ever since the Nazi era has been considered the quintessence of anti-science) is a sad reminder why political geography was eliminated from most university curriculum.

[agincourt1415]

Lets make it So! LETS ROLL!

[Dog Gone]

I don't think it's a given at all that Turkey will lay claim to the northern Iraqi oilfields, or that if they try, we would allow it.

I think what Turkey gets out of this is our commitment to keep northern Iraq under Iraqi control and not allow a Kurdistan to be declared. That, and perhaps the opportunity to invest in those northern oil fields.

[gaspar]

Saudi Arabia IS part of the planning, and you are so right. At this moment the US is trying to sway the membership of the Arab League to provide peacekeeping forces once Saddam is ousted. The US has no intention of repeating the Bosnia scenario and the Secretary of State's in-house think tank (DOS-S) is presently working on plans for post-war nation building and peace keeping in Iraq. As for Syria, the next move is for the United States to force Syria from Lebanon and neutralize the Iranian-backed Hizbollah from there. Third, if Arafat can be forced from power the whole Middle East equation will have to be re-calculated, and peace with Israel might be possible. Finally, State is following very closely events in Iran. It is unlikely that the theocracy can be ousted tomorrow, but day by day the Iranian people are stretching their wings.

[jays911]

i think that's what the author meant. and we are finding out just who are friends are. i have a bulgarian partner, and it is good to see our eastern european friends lining up with us. i think all those years under the bootheel of the soviets makes them a lot more sanguine about the true state of events in the world.

[Torie]

Almost everything Stratfor said about the Kosovo campaign was trash, and consistently wrong. They kept writing that taming the place would be a near insuperable task, and kept chatting about lines of communication, points of entry, etc. I don't believe anything the outfit says.

[Torie]

The Turkish seizure thing is ludicrous.

[jays911]

my sentiments exactly!

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Thanks very much for the ping !

The 2003 war with Iraq will be about redefining the status quo in the region.

Absolutely!

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[mercy]

Oh I'm not being gloomy.

Granted, the mounting evil of Islamism is gloomy but if we will confront it straight on ... it need not be nearly so horrible.

As to the draft ... I look forward to it. Our nation's youth have become a callow lot. A couple years of discipline and dodging bullets will be good for them. Providing they live through the experience.

[Free the USA]

BTTT!

[bert]

Finally, someone else on Free Republic that understands.

You mentioned the Arab League. I prefer to think the active institution is the Gulf Cooperation Council composed of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Quatar, United Arab Emirates and Oman. I think the other majors are Jordan and Egypt and who are members of the Arab League.

I think the GCC is calling the shots and the others in the Arab League will tag along. The GCC has the economic power and the nonmembers perhaps would like to join the club.

My view is the Arab league is the past. The GCC is the future.