[cinFLA]

You premis on launch cycle rates is based on history; not the rate that was planned. Thus your "lifetime" figure is off.

[Vic3O3]

I always thought the good engineer's motto was underpromise & overdeliver. NASA's (re: shuttle flight schedule)seems to be overpromise & underdeliver!

While yes, my projected launch cycle is based on history (that's all we have!) if NASA was going to ever speed it up, you'd think that in 22 years they'd have managed it!

Since they never have sped it up, my lifetime figure is more accurate (being based on actual launch #s) than their projected one!