Posted on 02/08/2003 2:22:45 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
caption in black: U.S. News, "DoD confirmed". reduction of Army, defense with precision weapon using Navy/Air Force.
caption in blue: American troop withdrawal, reduction seriously considered
Rethinking South Korea's defense:
The Bush administration may reduce the number of U.S. troops in South Korea
BY MARK MAZZETTI
Even as it is locked in an uneasy standoff over nuclear weapons with North Korea, the Bush administration is weighing whether to make a fundamental shift in both the U.S. military's peacetime presence in South Korea and its plans for war should North Korea attack across the 38th parallel, U.S. News has learned.
The United States maintains a "trip-wire" force of 37,000 in South Korea?most stationed close to the concrete and barbed-wire fortification that marks the Korean demilitarized zone?which constitutes the most visible symbol of America's commitment to defending South Korea. Yet in interviews with defense officials and outside experts with ties to the Pentagon's civilian leadership, U.S. News has learned that the Pentagon, in conjunction with the South Korean government, is seriously re-examining the U.S. military posture on the peninsula. Top aides to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld contend that advances in military technology, along with the improved capability of South Korea's Army, allow the United States to consider drawing down some of the U.S. ground forces in Korea without abandoning its responsibility to protect a close U.S. ally.
The presence of U.S. troops has become a growing political issue within South Korea, particularly among younger South Koreans who have grown up accustomed to a hostile North. With fewer U.S. ground forces, the Pentagon could place greater emphasis on Navy and Air Force long-range strike weapons, relying on South Korea to bear a greater ground force burden, including along the DMZ. "This is probably something we've neglected taking a hard look at for at least 10 years," says as senior defense official. "This is a very sober assessment."
Plans are still in their early stages, and officials fear that any major changes now would send the wrong message amid escalating tensions between Washington and Pyongyang. "The last thing you want is for this to be connected to the current crisis," says Victor Cha, a Korea expert at Georgetown University. "It has to be handled in a way that doesn't look like the North Koreans have won." The Pentagon has already committed to reducing the number of bases on the peninsula from 41 to 23.
On Monday, as the Pentagon put B-52 bombers on alert for possible deployment to Asia, Rumsfeld met with an envoy of South Korean President-elect Roh Moo-hyun, and the two agreed that changes to the U.S.-South Korean military relationship were overdue. Defense officials say they hope to have a rudimentary plan to present by the end of the year.
A new force structure in South Korea would also mean retooling the Pentagon's war plan for a Korean conflict, known as Plan 5027. In the event of a North Korean attack on the south, the war plan is believed to require up to five Army and two Marine divisions to rapidly deploy to the peninsula to reinforce U.S. forces already on the ground. Yet given new demands in the war on terrorism, the Pentagon is examining how contingency plans can be rewritten to require a smaller ground commitment and a greater role for precision weapons. "They are really looking hard at the ground force requirement in Korea," says one defense expert familiar with Pentagon planning. Given Seoul's proximity to North Korean rockets and artillery, Pentagon war gaming has usually resulted in considerable destruction to the capital, along with massive casualties to U.S. troops.
With combined armed forces of nearly 700,000, South Korea had taken great strides in recent years to close the gap in capabilities with its northern neighbor, which has an army of over a million. The hope in the Pentagon is that changes in the alliance will allow South Korea to take a greater responsibility for its own defense. As a senior State Department official puts it, "We want to stay in the area, but our footprint should not be the same." At the Pentagon, planners are also looking to make changes to the alliance's military command structure, which currently would put a U.S. four-star general in command of all American and South Korean forces in the event of a war.
Yet in a military alliance that spans five decades, change is never easy. Experts point out that U.S. military commanders in Korea have historically tried to block plans for troop reductions and may resist the wholesale changes the Pentagon is considering. Former U.S. ambassador to South Korea James Lilley remembers a fight he encountered in 1988. He pressed the brass to move the U.S. 8th Army's golf course out of downtown Seoul, a source of anger for residents of the capital. "We finally got it moved," he recalls. "But it was no picnic."
With Tom Omestad in Seoul
This rereminds me a lot of the Philippines in 1941. Our 36,000 troops, mostly support, would be like a speed-bump to a bulldozer.
We've been there 50 years! We just rotate our people in and out.
Plan 5027... HA! 5 army and 2 Marine divisions?! Yea right... how long did it take us to get our forces set up for Iraq?
These forces do not exist! Move the golf course and just wait for that throaty sound of 11,000 NK tubes and over 1000 tanks.
ROK forces will behave like ARVN...
The artillery tubes can do a lot of damage. But as for 1,000 tanks, they are not really useful unless they can drive on mountains.:) There are only a few approach roads to Seoul. Only the tiny fraction of them need to be blown up to block the advance of N. Korean troops. And there are other obstacle courses ready for N. Korea troops. They have to first pass through crowded commuter towns. Street battle will ensue in those towns where defenders can pick off advancing troops behind numerous conrete buildings in the area.
Obviously, this plan does not consider other wars America could be engaged in.
This problem needs to be dropped into the lap of the East Asian powers - South Korea, Japan, and most of all China.
Well, that in itself is IMO a bigger problem than the NK's using them directly, given Islamkazees. After Iraq, NK!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/836745/posts?page=109#109
To: Thud
"NK refugee comments about ordinary soldiers having lost discipline, i.e., acting like thieves, indicates that the rot has spread from the top to the ranks."An inherent problem of running a corrupt state, is that corruption has to be restricted to very limited number of people. This is for two reasons:
- A widely corrupt state is an ineffecient one, and the damage expands geometrically every time it drops a level. There is a huge difference between a few people skimming some off the top and everyone and their brother taking a cut. Once people realize that their supervisors are corrupt, and they can get in the act, they will. Anyone with anything to offer will start to cut deals.
- A widely corrupt state is breeds intrigue, deception, and paranoia. People who risk their lives to cut deals will make sure that their tracks are covered, and that the books are well cooked. Every time that information changes hands, it may change substantially, to reflect the needs of whoever is passing it. This means that high level officials have no reassurance that they know what the real situation is, or who they can really trust. The real economy and centers of power exist off-line; the official line is an obstacle, not to be used except as required.
As the corrupt leaders of North Korea have sown, so shall they reap; a nation rotten to the core, with schemers, liars, and opportunists at every level.
109 posted on 02/05/2003 4:53 PM PST by Steel Wolf
The big question is whether the NPKA still has the capability of smoking Seoul with artillery. I think it does, but a reasonable argument can be made that they don't anymore.
I agree. To cite an example, there are many funny-looking gates over the road to the north of Seoul. They have two concrete slabs working as pillars on each side of a road. And the really big concrete slab on the top, too big. Once N. Korean troops invades, the pillars are to be demolished and the top part will be on the ground, blocking the advance of N. Korea columns.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.