Where's Bob Graham headed?

The Hill ^ | February 12, 2003 | Allison Stevens

[LdSentinal]

Sen. Bob Graham will not seek reelection to the Senate if he decides to run for president, his spokesman said Friday.

The Florida Democrat's decision raises the likelihood that Democrats will lose a popular incumbent from one of the country's most competitive states to retirement.

Graham, 66, postponed his decision on a presidential bid to undergo heart surgery last week. Insiders say he's leaning toward a presidential bid -- even though he would be virtually guaranteed reelection to a fourth Senate term.

In making a president run, however, Graham would face stiff competition in an already crowded presidential primary race that is well underway. Graham is recovering from surgery at his daughter's house in Northern Virginia and will make his announcement by March 1, Graham's communications director, Paul Anderson, said.

"If he gets in the race for president, he will be running for president," Anderson said. "He will not be hedging his bets, so to speak, on a Senate race or anything else. He will be fully committed to the presidential race."

When asked what Graham might do if he loses out the presidential primaries, Anderson said, "If he runs for president, he runs for president. He's not hedging his bets. He's not running for reelection if he runs for president."

The prospect of losing Graham to retirement comes as a blow to Democratic hopes of regaining control of the Senate in 2004. They had been counting on the popular three-term senator and former governor to help them hold their ground in what is shaping up as an unfavorable political landscape.

If Graham retires, he would open up what would no doubt be a hard-fought battle for a seat in one of the country's most evenly divided electorates.

Florida law prohibits a candidate from running for two federal offices at the same time. But skeptical political insiders still speculate that Graham might still be tempted to run for reelection to the Senate if he loses the presidential primary, despite his spokesman's seemingly unequivocal statement to the contrary.

He would have plenty of time to make the transition from a nationwide to a statewide campaign, they say, noting that the Democratic presidential nominee will likely be known months before the Sunshine State's July filing deadline. Graham, who had $243,000 in the Senate campaign bank at the end of the year, could also transfer funds from a presidential campaign account to a Senate campaign account after an audit.

Having easily won five statewide campaigns, two of them for the governorship, Graham would enter the Senate race as the prohibitive frontrunner. In 1978, he won a contested gubernatorial contest with 56 percent of the vote, becoming the only Florida politician currently in office to win a statewide campaign on the first try.

Eight years later, he won his first Senate bid with 55 percent of the vote, a margin of victory that has grown wider in each of his subsequent elections.

Still, a campaign for the presidency is a far different exercise than seeking statewide office. It would compel Graham, a political centrist, to position himself to the left to win the votes of Democratic primary voters, who tend to be more liberal than general election voters at large.

Democrats aren't overly concerned that such a move would threaten Grahamâ's chances for reelection to the Senate. But they do concede that postponing a Senate campaign until after the presidential primaries could set back their hopes of retaking majority control of the upper chamber.

Indeed, Democrats might have to wait well into the spring of next year for word of Grahamâ's plans, leaving them without a candidate in one of the country's most competitive and expensive states.

The uncertainty could even last through the summer: Graham could bow out of the presidential race but remain on the short list as a possible vice presidential running mate. That's happened several times over: former President Clinton and former Vice President Gore had both placed Graham on their short list of potential running mates before finally going elsewhere.

"This could put Democrats at a disadvantage if it got to the election year," Democratic strategist Jim Krog said.

Dan Allen, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, echoed his sentiment.

"This is an advantage for Republicans because the fact is we're getting out there and focusing on the Senate race, whereas the Democrats, nationally and at the state level, have to worry about who their candidates are going to be," Allen said. "They could be left in the situation of going into next year where they're told that they have to start from scratch."

Graham's stance already has Democratic hopefuls waiting in the wings.

"I have done things over the last six or seven weeks to be in a position to be a full-time candidate for the U.S. Senate if Sen. Graham chooses not to run," said Rep. Peter Deutsch, a six-term Democrat who already has amassed a $2.5 million war chest. "I've also said, all of that is dependent on what Sen. Graham does. He is more than entitled to take his time to make a decision."

Deutsch is one of a handful of Florida Democrats who are being mentioned as possible successors. Others include Rep. Alcee Hastings and Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas. Meanwhile, Republicans are getting a head start in what they assume will be an open Senate seat in 2004.

"That [he will not seek reelection] is the indication [Graham] is giving pending his recovery from surgery," said former Rep. Bill McCollum, a Florida Republican who lost by five points to Sen. Bill Nelson in the 2000 race and is gearing up for a return to the playing field.

"That's the general impression. I'm sure he's conveyed that through many of his supporters. A lot of people think it's an open seat," McCollum said.

McCollum, who has not opened a Senate campaign account but has just under $150,000 remaining in his congressional campaign account, is just kicking off a fundraising drive to raise $10 million for the September 2004 primary.

McCollum will face a tough rival in five-term Rep. Mark Foley (R), who has not officially announced his candidacy but has said he will run regardless of what Graham does. He has already raised $1.7 million for the venture and is busy traveling through the state and putting together a campaign team and grassroots organization.

"It's perfect, I love it," Foley said. "Peter Deutsch has to sit on the sidelines and be respectful. While I'm out organizing, they're playing the waiting game, but I'm building up a pretty strong head of steam."

[LdSentinal]

Pretty much of the same. Bill McCollum (R) and Mark Foley (R) will run regardless of Graham's decision. Though, I wonder if it's a good idea if the Florida legislature would move the filing dealine from July 2004 to a late date in January of 2004.