Posted on 02/13/2003 2:20:43 PM PST by HAL9000
WASHINGTON, Feb 13 (AFP) - A top US intelligence official has predicted that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein could launch a pre-emptive strike into Kurdish-controlled areas of northern Iraq ahead of any US-led military action against his country, and could also attack Israel.
The forecast, made Vice Admiral Lowell Jacoby, director of Defense Intelligence Agency, introduces an element of unpredictability into current war plans that, as widely reported, call for US troops to use Kurdish areas of northern Iraq as a staging area before a thrust toward major oil field around the cities of Kirkuk and Mosul.
Since the end of the Gulf war in 1991, Iraqi Kurds have enjoyed de-facto independence from Baghdad, protected by US and British air power patrolling the northern "no-fly zone" imposed on Iraq by the two powers.
The scenario also raises the possibility of a direct clash between Iraqi and Turkish troops, some of which are already on Iraqi Kurdish soil, with more forces building up along the border.
"Saddam's conventional military options and capabilities are limited, but I expect him to preemptively attack the Kurds in the north, conduct missile and terrorist attacks against Israel and US regional or worldwide interests," Jacoby told the Senate Armed Services Committee.
During these attacks the Iraqi leader is likely to use weapons of mass destruction and his regime's alleged links with the al-Qaeda terror network built by Osama bin Laden and blamed for the September 11 attacks on the United States, said the DIA director.
Jacoby warned that Saddam Hussein will attempt to energize "the Arab street" by calling for attacks against US and allied targets and encouraging actions against Arab governments that support US policy toward Iraq.
"If hostilities begin, Saddam is likely to employ a 'scorched-earth' strategy, destroying food, transportation, energy, and other infrastructures, attempting to create a humanitarian disaster significant enough to stop a military advance," said the DIA director.
He added that he expected the Iraqi leader to use chemical and biological weapons against his own people in order to exacerbate the humanitarian situation, complicate allied operations, and shift the blame on the United States and its allies.
On Monday, Turkey invoked NATO's mutual defence treaty after three countries -- Belgium, France and Germany -- vetoed a US request to begin sending military hardware to Turkey ahead of a possible US-led war in Iraq.
Oh yeah, that'll stop us. Wasn't the Arab street supposed to do something in the Gulf War and Afghanistan and .........
I am only surprised that he hasn't already unleashed. This will not be pretty, and there is no way to put the cork back in this bottle. We are advancing, and he knows we are not going to retreat one inch. Ever.
No, there are other possible motives for pre-emptives trikes, like for example "since I'm going down, I'm going to try to take as many people with me as possible."
You sure have that right.
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