[MichiganMan]

Perhaps, but I'll believe it when I see it, we've heard this kind of good news before. I've no doubt that the administration is doing everything possible to find him in case he is alive, but I am still of the opinion that he is an unidentifiable smear of dusty red paste under a few tons of rock in a cave some where. I mean a guy who couldn't stay away from a video camera for more than a few weeks suddenly can only make written (LOL) and audio statements. The only alternative explanation is that he was disfigured/blinded etc. in the Tora Bora attack and would therefore not be an effective rallying force on video. Its in our interest to not officially speculate that he's dead in case he does pop up somewhere, and because his continued pursuit does keep a few of the weak-kneed on board with the war.

I'd be thrilled to be wrong though.

[Quilla]

The only alternative explanation is that he was disfigured/blinded etc. in the Tora Bora attack ....

There is also the possibility that bin Laden has altered his appearance to avoid recognition. Releasing video as well as audio would give away this disguise.

[NEPA]

A few days ago Ijaz had a good explanation for UBL's reluctance to be video taped. He pointed out the change in appearance of K S Mohammed and said that UBL probably also looks different from his old tapes and does audio now to keep his new appearance unkown.

[He Rides A White Horse]

I've no doubt that the administration is doing everything possible to find him in case he is alive, but I am still of the opinion that he is an unidentifiable smear of dusty red paste under a few tons of rock in a cave some where. I mean a guy who couldn't stay away from a video camera for more than a few weeks suddenly can only make written (LOL) and audio statements. The only alternative explanation is that he was disfigured/blinded etc. in the Tora Bora attack and would therefore not be an effective rallying force on video.

I was of the mind to think him dead at one point, but I'm not so sure as of late.

There is another alternative explanation. Sheik Mohammed appears to have an altered appearance, whether it be from disguise or having gone under the knife.

If bin Laden is utilizing this tactic also, it would not prudent to give videotaped messages showing off your new look.