The Euro Effect: The Real Reason for the War in Iraq (Currency cited as reason for war, Long)

"EV World" ^ | W. Clark

[americanbychoice]

Another 40% ? This is just as ridiculous as the arguments I listened to in 2000 that the Dow will go to 30 000, when the basic trend lines were showing a major decrease coming. I forcast that one back then, even ridiculing those talking experts, who, just like now, use hype to "sell" their stupid positions for gain. Just look at the economic condition of the countries using the Euro. They are close to bankruptcy already. You believe the 40% theory. I have Swampland in Florida to sell you.............

[dennisw]

Government currency reserves are an even bigger story - I'd guess at least twice as large as private cash holdings.

Our objective is for foreign governments to have US Treasury notes in the "vaults" to back up their own local currency. This is what a reserve currency does. Plus as you say it helps us that US 20$ bills and 100$ bills circulate world wide, are considered as good as gold. More trusted than the local currency. This circulation helps our trade deficit somewhat.

[pkpjamestown]

http://english.pravda.ru/main/2003/01/23/42466.html

[RightWhale]

The seams in my foil hat seem to be secure. This article is having no effect.

[Jhoffa_]

Thanks for reading it Dennis, I was very curious what the FReepers would think about this. I knew some of the more economically savvy FReepers would deconstruct this thing and clarify it.

Yes, it does sound plausible.

I still think I disagree with the leftist assertion that "it's all about oil", "the dollars for oil" and such because Iraq didn't switch to the Euro until 2000.

So that does rule currency, and oil out as a motivation for the first gulf war.

As far as the prime motivation for this current conflict, I simply hope the author is mistaken. Because that would make us the instigators and Iraq's refusal to trade in dollars the justification for an attack.

[Jhoffa_]

The seams in my foil hat seem to be secure. This article is having no effect.

LOL!

I think it's the very best "it's all tied to oil" type argument I have ever seen.

It's going to get far more traction and contemplation than the "Texas oil buddies" scenario.

Imho.

[americanbychoice]

Just think about this one: Since we only take 4.1% of Iraqs oil for food What the hell would the Euro bother us? Do you know who our top 5 oil suppliers are? :)

[Torie]

So if I hand Saudi a bunch of Euros it won't sell me any oil? What currency oil prices are denominated in doesn't see to me to be relevant. What is relevant is the desire of foreigners to use dollars as an actual medium of exchange and hold US treasuries. I don't think who has influence in what oil producing country has much to do with that. The author just makes assertions that are not backed up with any empirical evidence or economic macroeconomic contruct. Instead, all we have is nutter stuff about a Bush/CIA oligarchic conspiracy to prop up the dollar through war. Just why the oligarchy would want to do that is not addressed, even if the premise of the author is accepted, since the exchange rate is the balancing wheel of trade.

Frankly, the major benefit the US gets from the dollar being used as a medium of exchange is that the dollars abroad represent an interest free loan to the US. What with interest rates so low, that benefit these days is close to rounding error.

Then the canard is thrown in the the CIA/Bush oligarchy wants US dependence on foreign oil, and thus is against alternative energy sources? Just why is that? How does that prop up the dollar?

Reading this article is sort of like taking a Mr. Toad wild car ride, as one careens here and there, crashing in to this and that, and getting absolutely nowhere in the end, except perhaps into a mental hospital.

[dennisw]

Thanks .... I looked at it.

[RightWhale]

that does rule currency, and oil out as a motivation for the first gulf war

The Gulf War was to prevent Israel's nuclear entry. A side note is that the Russian gear that made up the main mass of Iraqi armor was quickly reduced to slag.

This time it is still about Israel, but it is also kind of a CYA for certain things that were done in the Cold War years. Clean up on aisle 5.

[dennisw]

USDollar vs. Euro is just one factor. This guy makes it out to be the prime (or only) factor for this upcoming war.

[Jhoffa_]

Since we only take 4.1% of Iraqs oil for food What the hell would the Euro bother us?

I think the author's contention is that it will all be purchased in dollars and sanctions will be non-existent following the war?

The potential ramifications of this and it's viability as a "conspiracy" is exactly what I had hoped reading the responses here would clarify.

When you start talking oil, global markets, wars and gigantic conspiracy theories, I get lost.

[Amerigomag]

"Use dollars or we will take over your country and install someone who will.."

Shades of gray.

From my perspective the author's premise was that this was a wilfull plot to weaken or cripple the US economy. An agressive act intending harm.

I agree that the typical US citizen won't buy that the possibility of a long range economic scheem offers a threat sufficient to warrant bloodshed.

Thankfully the average American doesn't usually direct our long range, startegic planning. However your point is taken and this argument will be removed from my talking points with typical Americans.

[Diddley]

Does Clark normally go by “W”?
According to him:

No international coalition to militarily disarm Saddam

No evidence of a reconstituted Iraqi WMD program.

No links between Saddam Hussein and Al-Qaeda.

Only became “aware” of N. Korea after congress voted on the Iraq Resolution.

Although completely suppressed in the U.S. media, the answer to the Iraq enigma is simple yet shocking.
The Real Reason for this upcoming war is this administration's goal of preventing further OPEC momentum towards the euro as an oil transaction currency standard. However, in order to pre-empt OPEC, they need to gain geo-strategic control of Iraq along with its 2nd largest proven oil reserves.

OK. I give up. You found us out.
There are no WMDs in Iraq.
Saddam does not present a threat to us.
Saddam doesn’t/won’t support terrorists.
We held back on what we knew about N. Korea, and the situation with N. Korea is really about Rice-Dollars.
We tried to fool the world, but Clark found us out. Dang it!

[Calvin Locke]

But what about rewarding the families of suicide bombers? What about the "practice" airliner for skyjackers? Where are
the records for the destruction of all that nasty stuff he had back in '91? Why are those three massive cargo

ships going around in circles while the inspectors are there? How about...?

Oh h&ll, I forgot to watch the bent one tonight for answers to these and other questions. Yeah, right. Whatever.

[Diddley]

Boy. Are you right.
Of course, the weasels (including the UN) will claim that none of that has been verified.

Let's go!

[ggekko]

The underlying assumption behind the article is wrong. The article implies that if the Gulf States swithced to the Euro en masse that the Euro would supplant the Dollar as the world's reserve currency.

The problem with this line of thinking is that almost all the counrties in the world need to clear trades of one sort or another in Dollars. The reality is that a currencies value as a reserve currency is related to overall trade flows not just oil transactions. During the 1970s several Gulf States switched to clearing all their oil sale transactions in Gold because of weakness in the Dollar at that time. It was abandoned a few years later because it made transactions with the US too troublesome particularly with regard to weapons purchases.

The costs to countries in dumping the Dollar for the Euro would simply be too great for them to contemplate in any serious way. When the Pound crisis occurred in the last 1950s Central Banks did largely replace their Pounds with Dollars; they did this largely in recognition of that fact the trade flows had diminished sharply in the Pound bloc. This is not the case with Dollar now especially in view of the fact of the unfinished nature of European Union integration.

[Binghamton_native]

Article is by Wesley Clark...FOB from Arkansas and appointed by Slick to head our military.

[Diddley]

Can you just see Third-world countries (other than Iraq-like) giving up dollars for euros?