German Scientist Sees No Global SARS Epidemic

Rueters ^ | Mar 27, 2003 | Kerstin Gehmlich

[TaxRelief]

BERLIN (Reuters) - A top German scientist said on Thursday he did not expect the mysterious pneumonia which has killed more than 50 people to mushroom into a global epidemic and predicted it was likely to abate in the next few weeks.

Microbiologist Bernhard Fleischer, head of Hamburg's Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine (BNI), said his institute had probably identified the virus causing severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).

"I don't assume that there will be a worldwide epidemic which will spread among the population," Fleischer told Reuters in an interview. "We are lucky that this disease is not as contagious and does not spread as easily as first assumed." Scientists from the BNI, Germany's top tropical diseases institute, worked on identifying the virus by analyzing tissue samples taken from a doctor from Singapore who was being treated in Frankfurt after showing symptoms of SARS. Fleischer said his institute had developed a test with which experts could detect within one or two hours whether a patient had caught the virus. A group of microbiologists from the University of Hong Kong said on Thursday they had also identified the virus and believe it is a new strain from the family of coronaviruses, the second leading cause of colds in humans. The finding was confirmed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Coronaviruses, so named because they have a crown-like appearance when seen under a microscope, are often responsible for upper respiratory infections in premature infants. SARS, which is reported to have killed 50 people globally and made more than 1,300 sick, has caused many travelers to cancel trips to the most affected countries -- Singapore, Hong Kong and Southern China. Hong Kong and Singapore have announced quarantines for thousands of people with flu-like symptoms and have closed schools until April 6.

WIDE-RANGING IMPACT

The disease is hitting Asia economically, with airlines in the region cutting flights and suffering steep share price falls as the virus spreads. News of the growing number of infections in Asia has raised concerns the disease may be airborne. But Fleischer said he believed it is spread through droplets by sneezing and coughing and therefore can only be caught through very close contact with an infected person. "I expect it to abate in the next few weeks," he added. Fleischer also said he believed the disease was not very contagious before a patient started to show symptoms, such as high fever and shortness of breath. Other viruses are highly contagious from the moment of infection. Developing a serum against SARS could take years, Fleischer said, but he added that a new vaccination may not be necessary as known medications against viruses could help to combat it.

"It first needs to be examined whether known and existing medication can help," he said.

The Hong Kong research team said patients were responding well to a cocktail of anti-viral drugs and steroids.

Fleischer said his institute and U.S. scientists had independently found that the cause of SARS was very probably a coronavirus. It had probably been transmitted from animals to human beings, he said.

However, other labs that analyzed samples from patients had said they found what looked like a new kind of paramyxovirus, which causes measles and respiratory disease in babies.

Fleischer said identifying the virus was a first step to finding a treatment for SARS, which WHO officials believe is linked to an outbreak in China that began in November.

He noted that the World Health Organization had not issued a travel warning for China. "There is no need for that," he said. "If one is taking certain precautions, there is hardly a danger of infection."

The disease has spread to Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, Canada, Germany, Japan, United States, France and Britain.

[Domestic Church]

And how long until the first airport screener comes down with SARS? Or will they make them wear N95 masks? We don't know how long the contagious period overlaps the incubation. It is far better to fully crack down on this now and demand quarantine and isolation barriers, Take the economic loss now as it will be far less than the economic loss (not to mention loss of life) down the road.

[freeperfromnj]

And how long until the first airport screener comes down with SARS?

I guess they didn't think of that. This is all very strange. This past week I saw two Asian women walking through the streets of Manhattan wearing surgical masks. I guess they worry about it getting into their communities via overseas travelers.

[Domestic Church]

"two Asian women walking through the streets of Manhattan"

Smart gals! Certainly would keep the muggers away!