SARS is much worse than is being reported

Personal American friends living in Hong Kong | CometBaby

[EternalHope]

You have better odds of being struck by a bolt of lightning or being blown up by a homocide bomber or dying in an auto accident than falling a victim to SARS. It helps to keep it in perspective.

Basic math: It takes the same number of doublings to go from 1 to 1000 as it does to go from 1000 to 1,000,000.

To put it differently, the number of cases of SARS have been increasing by an average of 11% per day. If this kept up it will double every week. That means it will take two months for a single case to grow to 1000. It will then take two more months to grow to 1,000,000. This is just basic math. An actual epidemiological model is much more complex, but the basic concept is the same.

Hence the efforts to stop SARS now. It appears that the steps being taken in some countries to stop this are effective, which means it is still possible to keep this in the box. Let it loose in the general population and you will get to see exponential growth in action.

It appears that steps can be taken that would stop this thing. If those steps are not taken and this disease gets loose, it will be more a failure of political will than a failure of medicine.

[vollmond]

But SARS could become an issue with AIDS activists because it seems it would be more likely to attack someone with a compromised immune system, as those with AIDS.

Actually, it will become an issue with AIDS activists when funding for AIDS research has to compete with funding for SARS research. If SARS is as bad as it's potentially looking, there could be serious cuts for AID research. Of course, is there anyone bold enough to make that kind of choice left in government? Probably not.

[pttttt]

A lot of diseases, like the common cold, which were thought for years to be airborne are really contact-borne (not smallpox unfortunately; that's airborne). But a study shown some time back on ABC 20-20 (I think - I remember this report though haven't found a cite for it) proved that the common cold viruses didn't spread through the air, only by contact. Studies have been done on this, showing how often people touch their mouths and noses, usually unconsciously. SARS may also be spread like this.

So the same preventive measures for common cold may also help avoid SARS.

Some specific ideas:

-Keep your hands away from your face.

-Keep your hands clean and carry hand cleaner/antiseptic gel (all this must be tough for obsessive-compulsives; they've been proven partially right).

-Hot salt water gargle, I'm told, actually changes the chemical environment in your throat so that viruses can't live as easily in it. That's why it helps with sore throat. Have so far not found any double-blind studies or research reports which prove this. But it's not expensive to try. See Salt Water Gargle and Other Virus Remedies.

. Zinc supplements and nasal spray/gel; see e.g. http://www.drhoffman.com and go to the "Coldbusters" link. This actually features a research report on why zinc works on rhinoviruses. SARS may be affected similarly.

[zook]

Thanks for your good advice. We'll have masks (the proper kind) and I suspect that the airports and planes will be quite empty. We'll be staying in a private house in Beijing. In Beijing itself, our hostess tells us there is really no problem. I think we'll be fine.

[Revolting cat!]

Where are the Rolling Stones?????

The Rolling Stones postponed, though you can be sure it wasn't Keef who made the decision - he's survived much worse!

[nanny]

Absolutely!!!

[nanny]

Oh, my goodness - it seems like I may be insensitive again - what is this oriental vs. asian?

But you know there are some people who just live to be insulted and they will find something if it doesn't exist - or invent it.

[nanny]

If, as I have read, it can be spread thorugh contaminated objects? I wonder if that means anything or must it be food - we get oranges from China I know - but what about all the gee gaws we import from China - better stay out of Wal Mart and Dollar stores!!!!

[Jim Noble]

>>We'll ping you in six months<<

Try six weeks.

[null and void]

The number of cases doubled in my city last week. At this rate it will take 18 weeks to infect everyone. Closer to six months than six weeks...

[Nov3]

Actually, CDC has been very forthcoming about this. We know exactly how contagious it is.

Actually up until a week ago or so the official line was said it could only be transmitted by close personal contact like someone coughing in your face. Now it is being reported as totally airborne requiring respirators and HEPA filtration, negative pressure rooms etc in the vicinity of the victim. It was being treated that way in China before but we in America were not told this by health authorities. Do a search on SARS or china mystery disease.

Are you with the CDC? The information may have been handled internally in the CDC in an open manner but the information reported to the public downplayed or failed to communicate the Airborne nature and contagiousness of this disease. We don't need a panic.