Replies

>>Do you feel that SARS is a real emergency?<<

I think it is a new viral pneumonia with a mortality rate of 4% +/- 2%, and that it is rather surprisingly contagious in closed and semi-closed public places.

I think allowing exposed but not yet symptomatic persons into the US is absurd.

Calling it an emergency may be hyperbolic, but it is certainly unusual. Absent intervention, the number of infected persons could become quite large.

>Absent intervention, the number of infected persons could become quite large.

Have you seen any
official "models" of SARS
yet? Has anyone

predicted how large
the US outbreak could be?
My rough, informal

extrapolation
was very disheartening.
At the CDC,

I'm sure computers
can forecast based on current
data. They should share...

Jim said: I think it is a new viral pneumonia with a mortality rate of 4% +/- 2%, and that it is rather surprisingly contagious in closed and semi-closed public places.

Bones: Dammit Jim... it's not that contagious! RSV, Rotavirus, and Influenza have similar risks given mucous membrane exposure!

(LOL)

Jim: I think allowing exposed but not yet symptomatic persons into the US is absurd.

Bones: It is difficult to separate asymptomatic carriers from the totally unexposed. The only factor would be travel history in the last two weeks (presuming the etiologic agent actually does have an incubation period of 10 days). If this agent actually has an incubation period of 14-21 days (like variola or varicella), then closing borders will be totally inept. In this latter scenario, the disease virus would already circulating in our nation and has a significant number of asymptomatic carriers. If see individual cases popping up in the US ICU's in the next 14 days, then we will know.

If (and I suspect this is the case) we do NOT see US ICU cases in the next 14 days, closing travel to endemic areas (INCLUDING THE CANADIAN AND MEXICAN BORDER) may be helpful for the next 4-6 weeks. (What do you think Jim?)

Jim: Calling it an emergency may be hyperbolic, but it is certainly unusual. Absent intervention, the number of infected persons could become quite large.

Bones: I agree. Starfleet Command needs to stay aware of the situation and consider a planetary quarantine if the disease shows evidence of increased mortality rates. However, I doubt this will occur. The mortality rate does not seem to be much different than other severe viral infections. The reality is that the mortality rate is declining because doctors are simply admitting more cases and making the diagnosis with greater sensitivity (which decreases the acuity of the cases admitted to the hospital).

This thing seems more like overblown bureaucrats escalating public hysteria to support more line-items in the centrally controlled healthcare budgets. Really now... how many cases of SARS in the US now?

just want to make sure it was clear that my "dammit Jim" was a reference to ST: TOS and NOT an expression of exasperation.