Beijing's SARS Attack

Time ^ | , April 8, 2003 | SUSAN JAKES

[CathyRyan]

A physician at Beijing's Chinese People's Liberation Army General Hospital (No. 301) in a signed statement provided to TIME, says that at one Beijing hospital alone, 60 SARS patients have been admitted of whom seven have died. That indicates the number of patients infected with SARS in Beijing may be significantly higher than those totals made public by China's Ministry of Health. Last Thursday Chinese Minister of Health Zhang Wenkang announced to the press that China's capital had seen just 12 cases of SARS of whom three had died. Today's edition of the official China Daily put the number of SARS infections in Beijing at 19 with four dead.

[DJtex]

Thanks so much for maintaining this data. I've never had confidence that even "advanced" medical establishments (like Canada) will "control" SARS. Give them the benefit of the doubt and assume that one "Typhoid Mary" carrier who causes 400 cases can still be contained. Also assume that Singapore and even Hong Kong (a real threat since it can't be isolated from world commerce) can contain SARS, for now.

The incredibly scary thought is that this epidemic is not dying out in China--that it is uncontrolled and spreading. Even if China becomes a pariah nation who's entire population is persona non grata in the civilized world, we will still not keep SARS from jumping beyond her borders again and again.

So this disease is occasionally highly communicable and kills 3% of it's victims. I have been pessimistic about it's containability since day one. We've been talking about a "new world order," asymetrical warfare, and the war on terror. If this disease hits 20% of a population and kills 3% of its victims (even more with no medical care), then we are seeing the new world order, the new terrorism, and the new asymetrical warfare being played out biologically. China cannot hope to be admitted into the community of nations--which she desperately wants--not while she practices 1960's "Soviet style" disinformation and coverup.

Her dreams of maintaining her dictatorship and lies while getting a seat with the "big players table" is impossible. This is just an early proof of her need for reform.

[theFIRMbss]

>The official word I've heard is 100 dead worldwide. We must be listening to different officials.

1) CDC and the
World Health Organization
provide up-to-date

numbers on cases
and deaths. Interestingly,
all over the globe

the death rate from SARS
hovers around 5 percent.
With the exception

of the United
States. Here the death rate is nil.
More than a hundred

cases, and no deaths. [!]
You decide if you believe
our health officials.

2) Last week, the US
"officially" had about
70 SARS hits.

This week there are more
than 140.
Even if the death

rate is 3%,
can you calculate the deaths
after, say, six months,

with a case count that
doubles every week?* Of course,
nature is never

linear, but if
this delta doesn't change fast,
the future looks tough.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
* calculate the deaths after six months with a case count that doubles every week?

x = 72

For 1 to 24
    x*2 = x
End For

Print "cases:", x
Print "deaths:", x * .03

[discostu]

Why'd you devide your post into a long series of haikus?