[2oakes]

Every year, 65 million people in the US get the flu. Half of them will seek medical treatment. Of those, 300 thousand are hospitalized. And 25,000 people die.

Thats about 0.04%

With SARS running at just over 2%, thats 50 times higher, giving over 1.25 million US deaths, assuming 65 million get it. Seems like if its something new, then nearly all of us will get it, making almost 6 million deaths....

And as hospitalization reaches 80%, thats a LOT of beds...

Not at all funny.

Posted because of the room 911, but now I'm thinking harder...

[TBall]

Another thing that is not funny is that experts do not know if SARS outbreaks will be reoccurring like herpes.

[EternalHope]

Not at all funny.

That's for sure.

The 2% mortality you cite is almost certainly low, too.

The 2% (and 3%) numbers often cited come from simply comparing current deaths with total cases. However, given the rapid growth in the number of cases plus the long hospitalizations of patients, the number of deaths is lagging significantly behind the number of cases.

The CDC and WHO are using 4%, but I have not seen how they came up with their number. Based on the publicly available information, mortality rates as high as 8% to 9% are indicated. Per loin's table supports rates this high for Hong Kong, as do the statistics for Hanoi, Singapore, and Toronto.

Regardless of the "correct" mortality rate, the assumption is that the vicitms will get proper medical treatment. In a full fledged pandemic, that would certainly not be the case. For instance, imagine what would happen if SARS broke out in the slums of Mexico City. Besides turmoil in Mexico, the United States would have a flood of refuges trying to enter the U.S.