[EternalHope]

When it comes down to it SARS isn't much more deadly than normal viral pneumonia, and it came from a region where most new cold/flu viruses originate.

SARS is much more deadly than viral pneumonia, and much much more likely to put you in the hospital.

Some early mis-info on FR pointed out that hospital acquired pneumonia has a mortality rate of 9%, which was asserted to be higher than SARS. Hospital acquired pneumonia is more deadly than the pneumonia the public is generally afflicted with.

As an aside, the 4% mortality figure currently being used for SARS is computed by simply dividing the number of deaths by the number of victims. It is too soon to know how things will eventually work out, but the Hong Kong statistics are instructive. As of yesterday, Hong Kong had 970 cases. 800 were still in the hospital, some of whom will die. 142 had recovered, and 28 had died. I do not know the average length of a hospital stay, but based on the statistics it seems to be more than 2 weeks.

To say this is nothing more than a really bad cold is absurd.

[per loin]

Hospitalized Hong Kong SARS (Chicom Flu) cases

Time			Cases				Increase			Dispositon of Cases								Dead as % of cases at prior times
Day	Date		New	Week	Total		Day	Week		Hospital	%	Recover	%	Dead	%	Hospital Days		Day ago	3 Day	5 Day	Week	2 Week
Wed	03/19				150
Thu	03/20		23		173		15.3%
Fri	03/21		30		203		17.3%
Sat	03/22		19		222		9.4%
Sun	03/23		25		247		11.3%
Mon	03/24		13		260		5.3%
Tue	03/25		26		286		10.0%
Wed	03/26		30	166	316		10.5%	110.7%								Start
Thu	03/27		51	194	367		16.1%	112.1%								figure
Fri	03/28		58	222	425		15.8%	109.4%								of 4000
Sat	03/29		45	248	470		10.6%	111.7%						10	2.1%	is a low		2.4%	3.2%	3.8%	4.5%
Sun	03/30		60	283	530		12.8%	114.6%						13	2.5%	Estimate:		2.8%	3.5%	4.5%	5.3%
Mon	03/31		80	350	610		15.1%	134.6%						15	2.5%			2.8%	3.5%	4.7%	5.8%
Tue	04/1		75	399	685		12.3%	139.5%						16	2.3%	4,000		2.6%	3.4%	4.4%	5.6%
Wed	04/2		23	392	708		3.4%	124.1%		603	85.2%	89	12.6%	16	2.3%	4,603		2.3%	3.0%	3.8%	5.1%	10.7%
Thu	04/3		26	367	734		3.7%	100.0%		619	84.3%	98	13.4%	17	2.3%	5,222		2.4%	2.8%	3.6%	4.6%	9.8%
Fri	04/4		27	336	761		3.7%	79.1%		645	84.8%	99	13.0%	17	2.2%	5,867		2.3%	2.5%	3.2%	4.0%	8.4%
Sat	04/5		39	330	800		5.1%	70.2%		673	84.1%	107	13.4%	20	2.5%	6,540		2.6%	2.8%	3.3%	4.3%	9.0%
Sun	04/6		42	312	842		5.3%	58.9%		704	83.6%	116	13.8%	22	2.6%	7,244		2.8%	3.0%	3.2%	4.2%	8.9%
Mon	04/7		41	273	883		4.9%	44.8%		733	83.0%	127	14.4%	23	2.6%	7,977		2.7%	3.0%	3.2%	3.8%	8.8%
Tue	04/8		45	243	928		5.1%	35.5%		765	82.4%	138	14.9%	25	2.7%	8,742		2.8%	3.1%	3.4%	3.6%	8.7%
Wed	04/9		42	262	970		4.5%	37.0%		801	82.6%	142	14.6%	27	2.8%	9,543		2.9%	3.2%	3.5%	3.8%	8.5%
Thu	04/10		28	264	998		2.9%	36.0%		814	81.6%	154	15.4%	30	3.0%	10,357		3.1%	3.4%	3.8%	4.1%	8.2%
Averages			39	290			9.1%	88.6%			83.5%		13.9%		2.5%			2.7%	3.1%	3.7%	4.5%	9.0%

[Conservomax]

Granted, but I still don't think it would be an effective bio-weapon. At least one to throw money after.

[Route66]

'It is too soon to know how things will eventually work out, but the Hong Kong statistics are instructive. As of yesterday, Hong Kong had 970 cases. 800 were still in the hospital, some of whom will die. 142 had recovered, and 28 had died. I do not know the average length of a hospital stay, but based on the statistics it seems to be more than 2 weeks.'
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I have been reading similar statistics from reports in other cities affected by the disease. Aside from the concern over potential fatalities, most coverage of this seems to be missing the point that this disease brings HUGE numbers of extremely sick and highly contagious people to local hospitals for long stays and usually infects at least some medical caregivers, especially early on in the outbreak.

Look carefully at the numbers of those who have been and are still being hospitalized. A hospital with 200 beds is a good sized facility. In our country, most of our facilities are already being well used and filled with all other medical maladies. You can preserve a SARS death rate of 'only' 4% for as long as you have hospital beds and care available for those seriously affected in order to help them pull through.

Once medical resources in an area are overwhelmed and exhausted, not only would the death rate be expected to rise quickly from this disease, but people will not be able to receive the same care they do now for other urgent medical problems. During an outbreak in any given area, the high need for hospitalization which could fill all available beds, plus the risk of contamination and loss of medical personnel to the disease could create an across the board medical crisis.

Like everyone else, I'm trying to sort the fact from the fiction concerning this disease, but these seemingly undisputed facts concerning hospitalizations are disturbing to me.

[Tauzero]

"142 had recovered, and 28 had died."

And 28 / (142+28) is 16%.