[Blueflag]

I disagree. Field artillery is an easy target for the right munitions and is easily pin-pointed by counter-battery systems and RPVs and JOINTSTARS etc., etc. They would indeed inflict damage, but would die rapidly.

the Korean capital is a problem because it is in range right now. That's a severe tactical issue, but would not alter the outcome.

[John H K]

Well, one thing is I constantly see the TOTAL number of artillery tubes the DPRK has along the DMZ used as the number of DPRK artillery tubes that can hit Seoul from BEHIND the DMZ..those number in the hundreds, not thousands as you see claimed so often.

And I think people are assuming the population of Seoul is simply going to politely stand in the streets and stay in their high-rise buildings while the bombardment goes on.

They aren't; they're going to head to the subways, to basements, or south away from Seoul (and the traffic problems thus caused are a headache themselves, of course.) But humans have an amazing ability to survive bombardment that you would assume to be unsurviveable, AS LONG as you can avoid the creation of a firestorm. And I suspect that won't happen in Seoul.

There hasn't been a conventional war or invasion or bombardment in the history of the world that has killed "millions" of civilians in a few days or weeks, and there never will be.

Of course, people are going to talk about chems, which are somewhat overrated, even against civilian populations.

It's questionable how sustainable a DPRK application of Chems is going to be against Seoul.

When the Iraqis gassed Halabja I believe they spent an entire day spraying the place with helicopters; the DPRK isn't going to be able to air-deliver any chems at all, most likely.

And their artillery will eventually be found and taken out, especially if it tries continuous bombardment.

And I don't think the North Korean Army itself will make it to Seoul.

You're looking at several thousand South Korean civilians killed in the first few days; that's bad enough.

I think hundreds of thousands or millions is a silly estimate.

The problem with numbers is that people like big ones, and they especially like it when you get to a million or more (look at the longevity of the myth that the US estimated we'd have "1 million troops dead" in an invasion of Japan.)

[jackbill]

I disagree. Field artillery is an easy target for the right munitions and is easily pin-pointed by counter-battery systems and RPVs and JOINTSTARS etc., etc. They would indeed inflict damage, but would die rapidly.

Those artillery pieces are not sitting out in the middle of the field. They are buried in caves and otherwise "hidden". Fire and move.

And, estimates are that the N. Koreans have 30,000 to 40,000 of them, within range of Seoul.

Sure, we would eventually get them, but at what cost to the residents of Seoul?