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Hong Kong SARS Turns Deadlier.
perloin
Posted on 04/15/2003 6:55:12 AM PDT by per loin
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1
posted on
04/15/2003 6:55:13 AM PDT
by
per loin
To: aristeides; InShanghai; riri; EternalHope; CathyRyan; blam; flutters; Petronski; Domestic Church; ..
fyi
2
posted on
04/15/2003 6:56:07 AM PDT
by
per loin
To: All
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3
posted on
04/15/2003 6:58:20 AM PDT
by
Support Free Republic
(Your support keeps Free Republic going strong!)
To: per loin
I'm a bit thick.
Is your chart saying 75.7% of those who have gotten sick are still in the hospital?
How many are still on respirators, or is that figure available?
If that many are still in the hospital, and SARS gets out among the general population with a high contagion rate, it will quickly overwhelm health services - including available respirators. This means the death rate will skyrocket.
Am I wrong?
4
posted on
04/15/2003 7:16:34 AM PDT
by
Gritty
To: Gritty
Saw some idiot family on the perkie today show this morning. The father actually went to the village where the virus is believed to have originated to pick up his newly adopted child. He and the child are now in quarantine in Austin. That's all we need is an outbreak in Texas.
5
posted on
04/15/2003 7:27:14 AM PDT
by
shadeaud
(Liberals suffer from acute interior cornial craniorectoitis)
To: Gritty
I might take issue with the word 'skyrocket,' but yes, there are several of us who are convinced that there will be a significant (order of magnitude) increase in the mortality rate once the healthcare facility capacity has been reached.
6
posted on
04/15/2003 7:27:56 AM PDT
by
Petronski
(I'm not always cranky.)
To: Gritty
Is your chart saying 75.7% of those who have gotten sick are still in the hospital?Yes, the chart says that. I've not got figures of how many are on respirators, but about 120 are in intensive care units. I suspect you are right about what happens if SARS spreads widely through the population.
7
posted on
04/15/2003 7:33:45 AM PDT
by
per loin
To: Gritty
I should explain this further. I would think of 'skyrocket' as a current mortality rate of 4% and a new mortality rate of something like 90%. With SARS, just based on instinct alone, I think the real mortality rate will be in the teens or twenties.
Brutal, true, but not 'Captain Tripps.'
8
posted on
04/15/2003 7:39:01 AM PDT
by
Petronski
(I'm not always cranky.)
To: per loin
Thank you for keeping up with this chart and posting it for all of us. I like your new feature (the descriptions at the bottom). Great work!
9
posted on
04/15/2003 7:50:58 AM PDT
by
flutters
(God Bless The USA)
To: Petronski
I think the real mortality rate will be in the teens or twenties.That would be more than "brutal".
People have been comparing this disease to the emergence of the Spanish flu. If I recall, the mortality rate was much less than that. Not only that, but the rehab rate was a lot shorter. You either died or you didn't. You didn't linger long either way.
The picture seems very ominous. It doesn't seem like the disease is being well contained and it isn't burning itself out.
I think I'll run out today and get some surgical masks before the run starts.
10
posted on
04/15/2003 7:53:45 AM PDT
by
Gritty
To: flutters
It was getting too big to read on a single screen, and the figures are hard to follow if you have to keep scrolling up and down.
11
posted on
04/15/2003 7:58:28 AM PDT
by
per loin
To: Gritty
Let us know if you find that they are already sold out. Several people have found that so in their areas.
12
posted on
04/15/2003 7:59:52 AM PDT
by
per loin
To: per loin
SARS killed nine more people on Tuesday and infected 42.
Of the 42 newly infected patients, 11 were health-care workers.
Yesterday's total of 7 was the previous record for the most killed in a single day.
I have to wonder how much longer we will be able to trust the numbers coming from Hong Kong.
To: shadeaud
The father actually went to the village where the virus is believed to have originated to pick up his newly adopted child. He and the child are now in quarantine in Austin. That's all we need is an outbreak in Texas. It's already in Texas .... Lubbock, Houston and Collin County all have reported cases.
14
posted on
04/15/2003 8:03:38 AM PDT
by
Centurion2000
(We are crushing our enemies, seeing him driven before us and hearing the lamentations of the liberal)
To: Gritty
I think I'll run out today and get some surgical masks before the run starts. The run has already started. The prices for the masks are increasing.
15
posted on
04/15/2003 8:04:25 AM PDT
by
Centurion2000
(We are crushing our enemies, seeing him driven before us and hearing the lamentations of the liberal)
To: EternalHope
They have all but admitted that they deliberately played with last Thursday's figures. An attempt to finesse the "1000 stricken" headline into a less prominent position in the weekly news cycle.
The continuing infection of health workers bodes ill for the long run. Are the steps that have been taken for isolation ineffective?
16
posted on
04/15/2003 8:11:25 AM PDT
by
per loin
To: per loin
I am worried about the health care workers...How long before they stop showing up for work?
To: CathyRyan
I've wondered that too. These workers have families and friends, and as they see other health workers catching SARS, they have to be worried that they could be bringing the disease home with them to those families and friends. With the death rate now above 5% and rising, many may soon find the risk not worth taking.
18
posted on
04/15/2003 8:26:21 AM PDT
by
per loin
To: CathyRyan
"I am worried about the health care workers...How long before they stop showing up for work?" They are braver than me. I would have quit about two weeks ago. The disturbing thing is that health care workers must be smarter and more aware of how to avoid the virus than the general population.....still they are falling. Not good.
I've read that Asians in this country are causing a shortage of surgical masks by sending them to friends and family in Asia.
19
posted on
04/15/2003 9:29:28 AM PDT
by
blam
To: per loin
excerpt from yesterdays Pro Med update
According to documents obtained by CTV News that were circulated among health officials on Sunday and Monday, SARS infections have been spreading among "a religious group associated with the Centenary/funeral home case." The "Centenary funeral home case" refers to one of the original SARS infections in Toronto. A person infected with SARS was known to have visited a local funeral home, and people who had visited that funeral home were asked to be on the lookout for symptoms of SARS. Those cases were apparently misdiagnosed when they originally turned up in family medical practices and emergency rooms, rather than being screened through the SARS clinics that had been set up in the past 2 weeks. The misdiagnoses raise the possibility that the infections have spread further into the general population.
"Some of these cases were initially given a diagnosis other than SARS despite multiple visits to hospital emergency rooms," according to a Sunday memo by Dr. Sheela Basrur, Toronto's chief medical officer. "This was due to the apparent lack of a clear epidemiological link to a known SARS case."
This sort of incompetence is astounding to me. If these people were in waiting rooms and god know where else, Toronto could be a time bomb ticking.
20
posted on
04/15/2003 9:34:14 AM PDT
by
riri
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