Hong Kong SARS Turns Deadlier.

perloin

[per loin]

Hospitalized Hong Kong SARS (Chicom Flu) Cases

Time			Cases				Increase			Disposition														Dead as % of prior time
Day	Date		New	Week	Total		One Day	Week		Got well			Dead			Total Gone			Now In Hospitals			Total Hosp Days		Week	2 Week	3 Week
										Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%
Wed	03/12		10		10														10	10	100.0%	10
Thu	03/13		14		24		140.0%												14	24	100.0%	34
Fri	03/14		5		29		20.8%												5	29	100.0%	63
Sat	03/15		8		37		27.6%												8	37	100.0%	100
Sun	03/16		5		42		13.5%												5	42	100.0%	142
Mon	03/17		53		95		126.2%												53	95	100.0%	237
Tue	03/18		28	123	123		29.5%												28	123	100.0%	360
Wed	03/19		27	140	150		22.0%	1400.0%		5	5	3.3%	5	5	3.3%	10	10	6.7%	17	140	93.3%	500		50.0%
Thu	03/20		23	149	173		15.3%	620.8%		0	5	2.9%	1	6	3.5%	1	11	6.4%	22	162	93.6%	662		25.0%
Fri	03/21		30	174	203		17.3%	600.0%		2	7	3.4%	0	6	3.0%	2	13	6.4%	28	190	93.6%	852		20.7%
Sat	03/22		19	185	222		9.4%	500.0%		0	7	3.2%	2	8	3.6%	2	15	6.8%	17	207	93.2%	1,059		21.6%
Sun	03/23		25	205	247		11.3%	488.1%		0	7	2.8%	2	10	4.0%	2	17	6.9%	23	230	93.1%	1,289		23.8%
Mon	03/24		13	165	260		5.3%	173.7%		5	12	4.6%	0	10	3.8%	5	22	8.5%	8	238	91.5%	1,527		10.5%
Tue	03/25		26	163	286		10.0%	132.5%		2	14	4.9%	0	10	3.5%	2	24	8.4%	24	262	91.6%	1,789		8.1%
Wed	03/26		30	166	316		10.5%	110.7%		2	16	5.1%	0	10	3.2%	2	26	8.2%	28	290	91.8%	2,079		6.7%	100.0%
Thu	03/27		51	194	367		16.1%	112.1%		3	19	5.2%	0	10	2.7%	3	29	7.9%	48	338	92.1%	2,417		5.8%	41.7%
Fri	03/28		58	222	425		15.8%	109.4%		6	25	5.9%	1	11	2.6%	7	36	8.5%	51	389	91.5%	2,806		5.4%	37.9%
Sat	03/29		45	248	470		10.6%	111.7%		18	43	9.1%	1	12	2.6%	19	55	11.7%	26	415	88.3%	3,221		5.4%	32.4%
Sun	03/30		60	283	530		12.8%	114.6%		21	64	12.1%	1	13	2.5%	22	77	14.5%	38	453	85.5%	3,674		5.3%	31.0%
Mon	03/31		80	350	610		15.1%	134.6%		15	79	13.0%	2	15	2.5%	17	94	15.4%	63	516	84.6%	4,190		5.8%	15.8%
Tue	04/1		75	399	685		12.3%	139.5%		5	84	12.3%	1	16	2.3%	6	100	14.6%	69	585	85.4%	4,775		5.6%	13.0%
Wed	04/2		23	392	708		3.4%	124.1%		5	89	12.6%	0	16	2.3%	5	105	14.8%	18	603	85.2%	5,378		5.1%	10.7%	160.0%
Thu	04/3		26	367	734		3.7%	100.0%		9	98	13.4%	1	17	2.3%	10	115	15.7%	16	619	84.3%	5,997		4.6%	9.8%	70.8%
Fri	04/4		27	336	761		3.7%	79.1%		1	99	13.0%	0	17	2.2%	1	116	15.2%	26	645	84.8%	6,642		4.0%	8.4%	58.6%
Sat	04/5		39	330	800		5.1%	70.2%		8	107	13.4%	3	20	2.5%	11	127	15.9%	28	673	84.1%	7,315		4.3%	9.0%	54.1%
Sun	04/6		42	312	842		5.3%	58.9%		9	116	13.8%	2	22	2.6%	11	138	16.4%	31	704	83.6%	8,019		4.2%	8.9%	52.4%
Mon	04/7		41	273	883		4.9%	44.8%		11	127	14.4%	1	23	2.6%	12	150	17.0%	29	733	83.0%	8,752		3.8%	8.8%	24.2%
Tue	04/8		45	243	928		5.1%	35.5%		11	138	14.9%	2	25	2.7%	13	163	17.6%	32	765	82.4%	9,517		3.6%	8.7%	20.3%
Wed	04/9		42	262	970		4.5%	37.0%		4	142	14.6%	2	27	2.8%	6	169	17.4%	36	801	82.6%	10,318		3.8%	8.5%	18.0%
Thu	04/10		28	264	998		2.9%	36.0%		12	154	15.4%	3	30	3.0%	15	184	18.4%	13	814	81.6%	11,132		4.1%	8.2%	17.3%
Fri	04/11		61	298	1,059		6.1%	39.2%		15	169	16.0%	2	32	3.0%	17	201	19.0%	44	858	81.0%	11,990		4.2%	7.5%	15.8%
Sat	04/12		49	308	1,108		4.6%	38.5%		46	215	19.4%	3	35	3.2%	49	250	22.6%	0	858	77.4%	12,848		4.4%	7.4%	15.8%
Sun	04/13		42	308	1,150		3.8%	36.6%		8	223	19.4%	5	40	3.5%	13	263	22.9%	29	887	77.1%	13,735		4.8%	7.5%	16.2%
Mon	04/14		40	307	1,190		3.5%	34.8%		6	229	19.2%	7	47	3.9%	13	276	23.2%	27	914	76.8%	14,649		5.3%	7.7%	18.1%
Tue	04/15		42	304	1,232		3.5%	32.8%		14	243	19.7%	9	56	4.5%	23	299	24.3%	19	933	75.7%	15,582		6.0%	8.2%	19.6%
Averages			35	258			17.7%	197.0%		9		11.0%	2		3.0%	11		14.0%	27		88.8%			9.3%	18.6%	40.1%
										Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%
Day	Date		New	Week	Total		One Day	Week		Got well			Dead			Total Gone			Now In Hospitals			Total Hosp Days		Week	2 Week	3 Week
Time			Cases				Increase			Disposition														Dead as % of prior time

[per loin]

fyi

[Support Free Republic]

---

	Donate Here By Secure Server Or mail checks to FreeRepublic , LLC PO BOX 9771 FRESNO, CA 93794 or you can use PayPal at Jimrob@psnw.com
STOP BY AND BUMP THE FUNDRAISER

[Gritty]

I'm a bit thick.

Is your chart saying 75.7% of those who have gotten sick are still in the hospital?

How many are still on respirators, or is that figure available?

If that many are still in the hospital, and SARS gets out among the general population with a high contagion rate, it will quickly overwhelm health services - including available respirators. This means the death rate will skyrocket.

Am I wrong?

[shadeaud]

Saw some idiot family on the perkie today show this morning. The father actually went to the village where the virus is believed to have originated to pick up his newly adopted child. He and the child are now in quarantine in Austin. That's all we need is an outbreak in Texas.

[Petronski]

I might take issue with the word 'skyrocket,' but yes, there are several of us who are convinced that there will be a significant (order of magnitude) increase in the mortality rate once the healthcare facility capacity has been reached.

[per loin]

Is your chart saying 75.7% of those who have gotten sick are still in the hospital?

Yes, the chart says that. I've not got figures of how many are on respirators, but about 120 are in intensive care units. I suspect you are right about what happens if SARS spreads widely through the population.

[Petronski]

I should explain this further. I would think of 'skyrocket' as a current mortality rate of 4% and a new mortality rate of something like 90%. With SARS, just based on instinct alone, I think the real mortality rate will be in the teens or twenties.

Brutal, true, but not 'Captain Tripps.'

[flutters]

Thank you for keeping up with this chart and posting it for all of us. I like your new feature (the descriptions at the bottom). Great work!

[Gritty]

I think the real mortality rate will be in the teens or twenties.

That would be more than "brutal".

People have been comparing this disease to the emergence of the Spanish flu. If I recall, the mortality rate was much less than that. Not only that, but the rehab rate was a lot shorter. You either died or you didn't. You didn't linger long either way.

The picture seems very ominous. It doesn't seem like the disease is being well contained and it isn't burning itself out.

I think I'll run out today and get some surgical masks before the run starts.

[per loin]

It was getting too big to read on a single screen, and the figures are hard to follow if you have to keep scrolling up and down.

[per loin]

Let us know if you find that they are already sold out. Several people have found that so in their areas.

[EternalHope]

SARS killed nine more people on Tuesday and infected 42.

Of the 42 newly infected patients, 11 were health-care workers.

Yesterday's total of 7 was the previous record for the most killed in a single day.

I have to wonder how much longer we will be able to trust the numbers coming from Hong Kong.

[Centurion2000]

The father actually went to the village where the virus is believed to have originated to pick up his newly adopted child. He and the child are now in quarantine in Austin. That's all we need is an outbreak in Texas.

It's already in Texas .... Lubbock, Houston and Collin County all have reported cases.

[Centurion2000]

I think I'll run out today and get some surgical masks before the run starts.

The run has already started. The prices for the masks are increasing.

[per loin]

They have all but admitted that they deliberately played with last Thursday's figures. An attempt to finesse the "1000 stricken" headline into a less prominent position in the weekly news cycle.

The continuing infection of health workers bodes ill for the long run. Are the steps that have been taken for isolation ineffective?

[CathyRyan]

I am worried about the health care workers...How long before they stop showing up for work?

[per loin]

I've wondered that too. These workers have families and friends, and as they see other health workers catching SARS, they have to be worried that they could be bringing the disease home with them to those families and friends. With the death rate now above 5% and rising, many may soon find the risk not worth taking.

[blam]

"I am worried about the health care workers...How long before they stop showing up for work?"

They are braver than me. I would have quit about two weeks ago. The disturbing thing is that health care workers must be smarter and more aware of how to avoid the virus than the general population.....still they are falling. Not good.

I've read that Asians in this country are causing a shortage of surgical masks by sending them to friends and family in Asia.

[riri]

excerpt from yesterdays Pro Med update

According to documents obtained by CTV News that were circulated among health officials on Sunday and Monday, SARS infections have been spreading among "a religious group associated with the Centenary/funeral home case." The "Centenary funeral home case" refers to one of the original SARS infections in Toronto. A person infected with SARS was known to have visited a local funeral home, and people who had visited that funeral home were asked to be on the lookout for symptoms of SARS. Those cases were apparently misdiagnosed when they originally turned up in family medical practices and emergency rooms, rather than being screened through the SARS clinics that had been set up in the past 2 weeks. The misdiagnoses raise the possibility that the infections have spread further into the general population.

"Some of these cases were initially given a diagnosis other than SARS despite multiple visits to hospital emergency rooms," according to a Sunday memo by Dr. Sheela Basrur, Toronto's chief medical officer. "This was due to the apparent lack of a clear epidemiological link to a known SARS case."

This sort of incompetence is astounding to me. If these people were in waiting rooms and god know where else, Toronto could be a time bomb ticking.