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Oh good, here's another comeback for the Emerging Democratic Majority types who say that Republicans are hosed because the minorities are coming to get us.

Maybe not.

This war was fought and won by young men and women who will return as heroes in their communities. They work at the mall, the police station, the local insurance agency. They will become an inspiration and role model for others of their generation.

This is true.

The "Emerging Democratic Majority" was stupid about many things and smart about a few things.

The stupidity was to suggest that suburban, middle class voters were trending permanently Democratic. Although some of the bread and butter Republican suburbs (Long Island in New York, Orange County in LA) have lost their Republican hegemony of late, many other faster growing suburban and exurban areas are powerfully conservative. To the extent that Clinton and Gore made gains among suburbanites, it was because they co-opted (or managed to appear to have adopted) some of the key Republican issues for the suburbs, especially regarding crime. There is also the prosperity effect ... moderate Democrats seemed like they had the economy under control. All of that stuff is temporary -- Republicans can and will come back in the suburbs where they've retreated, especially if the Democrats make a move left.

The smart thing though was to point out ethnic demographics -- there are too many white liberals for Republicans to remain a majority party while getting abysmal percentages of the Hispanic vote and allowing the share of Asian vote to fall. The Hispanic vote issue is a long-term project, but the Asian vote issue should disturb Republians greatly. There is no reason, none, for Asians to vote Democratic in the increasing numbers that they do. This matters in the states where Asians are numerically significant in the electorate, and matters even more in the fact that Asians are so economically successful. Asians can and will in the first third of the century assume the disporportionate power in finance, law, banking, and media that Jewish Americans had in the second half of the 21st century (people of Jewish descent will retain disporporiationate social status, but due to accelerating assimilation, those individuals will have less than influence as a self-conscious demographic.)