[DB]

There would have to be 13.5 billion people that got infected on the planet at a 4% death rate to kill 540 million people.

[reformedliberal]

Think about how small the world is today. I live in a rural midwestern county. I have come in contact w/people who work in Hong Kong (investment banker on vacation) and in mainland China (oil company workers who maintain residence and have family here). Relatives in a nearby urban area are senior med staff, one of whom works extensively w/immigrants. Another relative travels frequently to Asia and to Europe on business.

I don't think a pandemic is far fetched and I think it will happen quickly compared to previous ones. OTOH, I will bet that existant research into cold vaccines is becoming intense. However, this virus evidently mutates quickly, so I don't see how a vaccine can stop it.

[aristeides]

It's beginning to look as if the death rate is a lot higher than 4%.

[FrogMom]

Yep.

Spanish Flu (1918-1919) infected 20% of the population, killing 2.5% of those.

If you use those figures for infection rate, that's 1.2 billion sick (1,200,000,000!) and, with the SARS mortality rate running 4.5%, that equals 54,000,000 (not 540, sorry - well not really) dead.

A couple of things to keep in mind.
1) We travel farther much faster than in 1918. SARS may do so as well.
2) Infection rates in at least one "hot spot" are running into the 90% (HK hotel).
3) If the medical establishment becomes overwhelmed, the death rate could go MUCH higher.

We REALLY need to quarantine sick people.