A silver lining to Sars crisis for Beijing?

BEIJING - The talk in Beijing now is that America's 'shock and awe' with smart bombs was nothing compared to the shock and awe by the 'smart virus' causing Sars.

For the past half year, Sars, which began in the coastal province of Guangdong, has swept into inland China and across the globe. While at first China tried to restrict its spread without public warning, things got out of control quickly. When people in Hongkong, Singapore and Vietnam began to be infected, Sars became a bona fide domestic and international crisis for the new Chinese leadership, unseen since the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

Like that crisis, Sars also struck at a seemingly improbable time. In 1997, East Asian countries were basking in the glory of the regional economic miracle and looking forward to another decade of robust economic growth. Likewise, China was also in a great mood before Sars struck.

Indeed, just before the 'official' outbreak, the Chinese Communist Party concluded its 16th congress, and a new group of leaders took the reins in Beijing. Economic growth in the first quarter was more robust than most economists predicted. International trade was booming, and foreign direct investment (FDI) continued to arrive. China was looking forward to the next 20 years as a window of strategic importance for its development into an economic powerhouse.

China came out of the 1997 crisis much stronger. By upholding the value of its currency, it earned toasts from its neighbours, the United States, Europe and the International Monetary Fund as the 'bulwark of stability', and shored up its image as a 'responsible great power'. It became the new FDI draw, pulling money from all over the world.

Sars has already struck China's foreign trade and tourism, which now contribute significantly to the country's total GDP. The economic growth rate this year is unlikely to reach the 8 per cent predicted at the beginning of this year. Indeed, the World Bank has already lowered its forecast from 8 to 7.5 per cent, and may go even lower if the crisis cannot be contained within the first half year.

Second, China's image as a 'responsible great power' is in jeopardy. Regional countries are complaining that it did not alert them earlier so that they could have taken precautionary measures. Opinion columns are lashing out that China cannot be a responsible great power and does not know how to behave like one because Beijing has yet to grasp that its policies will have far greater consequence in the age of globalisation.

Third and most important, the crisis underscores the fact that the country's crisis-management system remains extremely inadequate and ineffective. This ineffectiveness is caused not only by the lack of a basic infrastructure but, perhaps more importantly, also by a lack of openness that is absolutely necessary in these ever-connected times.

China's crisis-management experience largely came from its heroic struggle against the great Yangtze flood in 1998. With determination and manpower, it beat back the flood. But to handle Sars, sheer manpower is not enough. It requires the integrated work of experts and organisations, not soldiers, workers and peasants. Most important, it requires an open and transparent government.

All these factors are prompting a serious re-examination of how China should be governed and what role the media should play. With proper attitudes and actions, China can still come out of the crisis in a much stronger position, just as it did after the 1997 crisis.

First, as recent directives from the Politburo indicated, much more openness may emerge in the media. While it may not lead to freedom to criticise the party or the central government, it would give less power to local officials to silence local and national media outlets. The media will remain the voice of the party (and therefore the state), but it will also become its eyes.

Second, the crisis may also lead to a new set of rules for appraising local officials' performance, which is now based largely on good economic growth numbers. Most local officials believe that they will get promoted only if they present good news, not bad news, and so hide budding crises and disasters from the public and the central government.

This was evident long before the Sars crisis. Local officials and governments routinely tried to cover up such incidents as mine explosions and food poisoning that killed scores. The central government now understands that such horrendous disregard of human life is undermining people's trust in it.

If the new leadership does learn the right lesson from the Sars crisis, we may see far more bad news coming from China than before. But that should not be a reason to avoid China or pull out investments. Rather, it should be welcomed as a sign that China is truly becoming a more open and civilised society. Only a government that is responsible for its people will be a truly responsible great power. From this angle, there may be a silver lining. As the Chinese characters for crisis suggest, a crisis is both a challenge and an opportunity.

The writer is deputy director of the Centre for Regional Security Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing. He is also a co-director of the Sino-American Security Dialogue. This personal comment appeared in Asia Times.

... it should be welcomed as a sign that China is truly becoming a more open and civilised society.

Then, why are all web sites (local and international) with SARS related contents blocked?

People are calling it THE GREAT FIREWALL OF CHINA. China will be an open society with iron fist media control in about 500 years. Let's wait.

Then, why are all web sites (local and international) with SARS related contents blocked?

I'd be surprised if that were still the case today, as my contacts in mainland China tell me that the state media is now so obsessed with SARS you wouldn't know they have a ton of other problems. Things can change rather quickly under a dictatorship.

I've got another angle on what China's legacy in all of this will be, and I pray that I am wrong. But IF I'M RIGHT:

Should this indeed turn into a world wide pandemic: Through some mistake in an illegal bioweapons facility, the Chinese allowed the escape of what may possibly turn into the modern equivalent of the Plague. Their ignorant pride and delusionally paranoid need for state secrecy will have sealed the fate of millions of people within their borders, as well as countless others worldwide. Their nation will eventually be quarantined from the rest of the world, and people of Chinese ethnicity who survive this will forever be shunned by the survivors. Just when they thought that the golden moment to become the world's leading power (in their eyes) appeared to be inevitable, one of their assymetric warfare weapons turned on its' makers and destroyed them. Hopefully, they won't take the rest of us with them.

China has lost all of its' honor. I can't imagine a just punishment for these socially and politically infantile, barbaric cretins. This will be the largest case of "Be Careful What You Wish For".

Yes, your local contact is 100% correct.

Only state media (that lies and falsify data) are allowed to report SARS. All other non-state web sites regarding SARS are blocked. The government wants the people to listen to one voice only, be it true or false.

What choice do you have under a dictatorship?

China's had deadly accidents weaponizing chemical weapons in the past, but I'm guessing that most of their suspected CBW sites - none officially exist - would be in the remote northwest, not anywhere near major trade centers along the coast. It's utterly stupid for any government to conduct such deadly research in a densely populated, highly urbanized area like Guangdong province, but especially a paranoid police state like China. So if it were a bioweapons lab accident, it would probably take a massive security failure for it to reach the major coastal cities.

The state media can no longer deny the seriousness of situation. For God's sake the schools are being closed. There's no more wiggle-room for them to lie their way out of the problem. If they're still blocking all foreign coverage on SARS, it's just a waste of energy at this point.

Yes, it is easy for you to talk like this outside China. By blocking all access to foreign media, the people has NO WAY to tell whether the govenment is lying. That's the main reason why they have to monopolize the source of informaction. Got it?

Yes, and the point of the article is that SARS is quite unlike other issues since its effects are so real and so immediate for everyone in the country, not to mention other countries, such that cover-up is no longer possible.

The silver lining is that SARS should have the same effect on China as Chernobyl did on the USSR. It's exposed one of its biggest weaknesses in the post-Mao era: shoddy healthcare. I'm sure even the government is now seriously considering an overhaul.

Regarding your reply to 11B3, here's a scenrio for you to consider:

A microbiogy scientist who works in the bioweapon had a very small accident, like having a punctured biohazard suit without knowing it. He was contaminated and still within the incubation of the virus (up to 11 days) he went back to his home province in Guangdong during weekend and transmitted the decease to his family. His family feel unwell, thought that it was just common flu and went to the local hospital. The family, with or without the scientist, were hospitalized. The entire hospital (doctors, nurse and patients) is contaminated. Without knowing the contagious capability of the virus, the medical workers went on the transmit the decease to their families. The virus is spread to the entire community.

Does it sound impossible to you?

Hey, we are talking about dictatorship here. A dictator always place social stability above human life. The only thing they know is: social unrest brings down the government. Yes, it could be a Chinese Chernobyl in replay but they just don't think telling the truth can benefit their control of the situation.

Let us not argue about the dictator's intention here. And, it is not my job to save their ass.

The fact is, up to this minute, outside web sites with SARS contents are still blocked. A few friends of mine who are running those sites had just confirmed it hours ago.

Sounds plausible, except we can speculate all we want. There's tons of other scenarios one might imagine, but for the time being it's pointless since China officially doesn't have any germ weapons whatsoever, and nobody's going to send inspectors there.

It's still beyond me that any government, even China's, would pursue such a weapon in this increasingly interdependent world.

So let's all hope it's a Chinese Chernobyl, agreed?

Stability is already a relative term in China. Even if you say that the country's highly stable, you might add that they're actually sitting on the edge of a volcano's mouth. To maintain the "stability" of today can only mean an even more spectacular explosion and loss of cohesion in the years ahead. Some kind of catastrophe was needed to convince them to move away from the volcano's mouth, however haltingly, and maybe SARS can be it.

True, we will never have a smoking gun. China will NEVER officially admit to having any such program. So, don't send in Hanz Blix.

China is dreaming to be the world's only superpower and they can having this bio-weapon can help.

The lesson is: If you want just one worm, DON't open the can. Just don't.

Re: #13

Well, I'm not hoping for anything. If the regime doesn't avert from it's present policy, it will surly explode in a more spectacular manner. Then, I hope this crises can teach them a lesson.

If, in the other way round, they continue with the present way of handling this crises, this crises can bring forth a regime change (which is not all that bad for the people).

So, I'm not gloarting, it works for me both ways.

If they have superpower dreams it's okay with me as long as they're just that - dreams.

The real pipe-dream that'll cost them bigtime is to think they can maintain a totalitarian grip on their people when their own economic policies have rendered it impossible.

Re: your #16 &17

The current crises is hurting their economy so bad that, I guess they have to postpone their dream of becoming the world’s superpower for a decade or two. Their tourism and foreign investment is at risk now. The damage can spread to other sectors. If the situation is not handled well, the World Expo in Shanghai and Olympic in Beijing could be jeopardized. In retrospect, these are the reasons why the govt is so scared to reveal the truth in the initial stage of the outbreak. However, these are also the reason why they want to keep things under lid now. Either way, they’re doomed. You’re right, they have very little room to maneuver now.

This crises can lead to other crises. Example: a run of the local banks which are already on the brink of bankruptcy.

Let’s sit and watch how things develop. It won’t be pretty.

1) There are already thousands, not hundreds. And, there could be tens of thousands in China now, who knows.
2) This virus is still under research. Probably they haven't got it right the first time.
3) Biological warfare agents are not designed to mass killing like bioweapon. Mathmatical models have shown that one "curable" patient can decapacitate another 4 persons (medical workers, civil services, supporting sectors). Therefore, if only 20% of the population is affected, the entire country is paralized.
4) Biological warfare agents is design to cause "curable" decease, not lethal decease. So that the enemy's government cannot abandon them and isolate the area to stop it from spreading. Burning bodies and their houses is not an option.
5) Biological warfare agent is design to cause an "economic meltdown". All tourism and commercial activities stopped. No government can withstand such loss for an extended period.

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