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Although you criticize on the basis of history, you have neglected to read what you refer to. Germany had some history of democracy, but Japan had none. Japan had a 1,500-year history of military dictatorships.

As for the size and length of occupation, MacArthur's experience in Japan answers both questions. Truman told Congress that 400,000 troops would be needed. MacArthur said only 200,000 were needed, and he was right. Since Japan then was about three times the size of Iraq now, about 60,000 troops will be required for post-war Iraq.

As for the time required, MacArthur moved Japan from a dictatorship to a fully funtional democratic republic in two years. The major withdrawal of American troops began then, and was completed in six and one half years. It ended at 60,000, which would be about 18,000 in Iraq. (Far less, I note, than the US currently has in Germany where they are neither useful nor properly welcome.)

As for the ethnic diversity in Iraq, which Japan did not have, that is the whole point of Jonah Goldberg's column. So, exactly as I say, combine the history of post-war Japan with 500 years of Swiss history. Throw in a dollop of Philadelphia, circa 1787, and there you have it. (BTW, Germany was not a nation but a collection of tribes, until shortly before 1900.)

History, as often happens, provides ample answers to a current problem. It just requires looking in the right places and asking the correct questions. Jonah was exactly right about the SINGLE subject his column addressed, the accommodation of ethnic diversity in Iraq. I am right about the other aspect discussed above.

Congressman Billybob

You are wrong. Japan did have extensive democratic experience. It's freely elected prime minister was assassinated (by "right wing" types) in the 20's for appearing to "cave in" to US demands. This lead eventually to Tojo and military rule with the emporer as a figure head (though his role in the conduct of the war appears to be much greater than first acknownledged by either us or the Japanese.) Japan had far more exposure to Western culture and even accepted and embraced it and imitatated it than Iraq has ever had.

Iraq is not an Island. It is surrounded by countries that covet it's land and it's allegiance. I would say 100'000 might be an over estimate given modern technology. But we can't get away with less than 30 thousand like in South Korea.

Sorry- he was assassinated in 1930

http://www.ingjapan.ne.jp/miurasn/history/senzen.htm

Germany was not a "collection of tribes" before 1900. It was a system of principalities that made up the bulk of the Holy Roman Empire for hundreds of years. Tribalism had been dead in Germany for about a thousand years by 1900. The Franco- Prussian war of 1871 gave Prussia predominace among the weak states of Germany and unification came about 15 years later (before 1900).

I remember you mentioning the Swiss canton system several weeks ago, before Jonah Goldberg brought it up.

You know your history, and you've studied how constitutions are formed and maintained.

The raw material is there in Iraq to form some sort of stable and democratic government. Telling us it can't be done only makes us try harder.

Truman told Congress that 400,000 troops would be needed. MacArthur said only 200,000 were needed, and he was right.

One thing to consider is that the 1945 Japanese knew that the 1945 Americans had no qualms about Bar-B-Queing 100,000 Tokyo civilians in a single conventional fire raid or killing 120,000 Hiroshima and Nagasaki civilians in nuclear strikes.

The 1945 Japanese knew that, if the 1945 Americans wanted any cr#p out of the Japanese, the Americans would beat it out of 'em.

However, the 2003 Iranian-backed Islamist Shiite Mullahs now trying to turn Iraq into an anti-American, Iranian-style Islamist theocracy believe that they can openly preach "Death to America" with total impunity as they believe that the 2003 Americans seem to fear bad press on CNN more than they feared Saddam's weapons of mass destruction.

Maybe, for appearances sake, this is something that needs to be "contracted out" to Iraqi Kurds and Iraqi Sunnis but something needs to be done about the radical Islamist Shiite Mullahs who now believe that they can preach "Death to America" with total impunity in post-Gulf War II Iraq.