Posted on 04/23/2003 10:56:31 PM PDT by kattracks
Blair Reaps Benefit of Iraqi War Support
By BETH GARDINER .c The Associated Press
LONDON (AP) - Prime Minister Tony Blair spent month after agonizing month trying to convince Britons that war against Iraq might be necessary. He endured one of the tensest moments of his career just before the bombs began falling, when he faced a major revolt in his own Labor Party.
His decision to lead his country into a war most here opposed was a huge political gamble.
With Saddam Hussein's fall, the gamble appears to have paid off.
Two new polls show support for Blair and Labor bouncing back to the comfortable levels of last summer, before the Iraq debate upended British politics. Backing for the war itself has also soared, according to one survey, with a majority now saying that taking action against Saddam Hussein was the right thing to do.
``He's triumphant,'' said George Jones, professor of government at the London School of Economics.
The surge in support - some are calling it Blair's ``Baghdad bounce'' - leaves Labor in a strong position for local elections being held around England on May 1. Voters in Scotland and Wales will choose representatives to the legislatures in Edinburgh and Cardiff.
While the toughest times for Blair seem to be past, he still faces political uncertainties. If the search for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq is fruitless, it will cast doubt on the justification for the U.S.-led attack. Rebuilding could turn messy, or the war could spark new terror attacks.
``Everything ... will now depend on what happens,'' said Anthony Seldon, a political historian at Brighton College. ``He's got over the first hurdle, which may have been the highest ... but there are four or five other hurdles that he has to negotiate successfully.''
An ICM survey published in The Guardian newspaper this week found that 49 percent were satisfied with the job Blair was doing, and 42 percent were dissatisfied. In February, an ICM poll found only 35 percent of Britons satisfied with his performance, and 55 percent unhappy.
The Labor Party continues to hold a commanding lead - more than 10 points in most polls - over the opposition Conservative Party.
Most remarkably in a country where one prewar poll found only 9 percent backed a war without U.N. endorsement, 64 percent now say they believe taking military action was the right decision, according to a Populus poll published last week in The Times. Twenty-four percent said it was the wrong thing to do.
All the polls had about 1,000 respondents and a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
In an interview with The Sun, Blair said he knew before the fighting in Iraq began that it might cost him his job, and he told civil servants ahead of a major House of Commons vote to prepare for the possibility that he might be forced to step down.
``It was always possible that you could be in that situation,'' he said. ``In the end, if you lose your premiership, well, you lose it.''
Blair won the vote handily but suffered his biggest-ever revolt among Labor lawmakers as 138 voted for an anti-war measure. Some hard-core opponents called on him to step down.
The prime minister seemed far more popular across the Atlantic - where he has now been nominated for a Congressional Gold Medal - than in his own country.
At the very least, said Jones, Blair now has a powerful defense against his opponents' favorite criticism, that he cares only about what is popular, not what he believes is right.
``He's been a national leader, he stood up for British national interests against those who said he was wrong,'' Jones said. ``No longer can people say he's just somebody who follows the focus groups.''
04/24/03 01:27 EDT
Maybe they'll stop calling him Bush's poodle now. Good job Mr. Blair!
With a President now across the pond who doesn't follow focus groups but instead LEADS, Tony is inspired to do the same.
Bravo, Tony, your long national nightmare is over, as is ours.
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