Of course his poll numbers are going to go down. The media will see that they do. Anyone remember the poll numbers during Reagan's elections?
I think Reagan's approval numbers were around 56% when he won the huge landslide victory of 1984.
The media and those on the extreme right (some around FR?) might like to think that 2004 will be a repeat of 1992, but it won't. We're dealing with different circumstances, and different players.