[harpseal]

The 16% people is taken from the number of people which are finished with the disease. Thus if 200 people are infected and 16 have died and 100 people are still suffering from the disease at present and 86 have recovered then the mortality rate is 16%. The question is how many of the people who have been infected will die from the disease. Thus we get
mortality rate - m
number dead from disease - d
number who have fished disease and survived - s
Thus:

m = d/(d+s)

I am making no statement if this is the best way to calculate probable mortality but I note that China has a vested interest in minimizing the danger of the disease.

[pepsi_junkie]

I agree with your formula 100% (and I calculate that correctly too). The article ues the formula m=d/s, definitely going to overstate the number due to the divisor being smaller. But nevertheless, I think it was Mark Train who said there were three kins of falsehoods: lies, damn lies, and statistics. Always look at stats with a suspicious eye.