[Nov3]

but with a 1-in-20 chance of dieing

You aren't even close to the latest "official" figures. They are WAAAY low.

[discostu]

The last official numbers I saw were 5%, which is the same thing as 5/100, which simplifies to 1/20, or 1-in-20. I've seen people doing a bad job of statistical sampling trying to push 15 to 20% but their methods are grossly suspect and their "data" should be ignored.