To: Tarsk
MY LYING $10.00 CALUCATOR
As per your request, I do not shout anymore.
Yes I make up everything which I post with my little $10.00 calculator.
I am sure that the CDC, WHO or the Government is beyond such things. I list below what I made up with my calculator.
It has been reported, and it seems reasonable to me, that there are 50,000 deaths each year in the USA due to Influenza (Pneumonia). If this is the case then this follows by mathematics:
1. I assume that the worlds population is 6.0 billion (probably 6.4 billion, but just increase these numbers by 6.67% if you like).
2. If the worlds population is 6.0 billion, and if the USA has a population of 280 million, than the world has a population 21.429 times larger than the USA.
3. If the 50,000 figure for the USA is correct then:
4. Daily Cases And Deaths USA (Assuming a 5% mortality rate):
Daily: Cases 2739.720 and Deaths 136.986
Period 30 Days: Cases 82,191.600 and Deaths 2,739.720
Annual: Cases 999,997.800 and Deaths 49,999.90 (Rounding Again)
5. Daily Cases And Deaths World ( Assuming a 5% mortality rate). Probably need to increase these numbers by a factor of at least by 2 to 5 since the rest of the world has almost no health system:
Daily: Cases 58,709.460 and Deaths 2,935.473
Period 30 Days: Cases 246,574.800 and Deaths - 88,064.190
Annual: Cases 21,428,952.900 and Deaths 1,071,477.742
6. If as you suggest that the death rate is 0.01% and not the 5% which I choose as representative, then of course the number of deaths remains the same but the number of cases increases by a factor of 500. Therefore, these would be the numbers which my $10.00 calculator reveals for the Cases for the USA and the World:
Daily Cases: USA 1,369.860.000 World 29, 354,730.000
Period 30 Days: USA 41,095,800.000 World 123,287,400.000
Annual: USA 499,998.900 World 10,714.476,450.000
7. There is one unfortunate result if I accept your number of a 0.01% death rate. On an annual basis it would exceed the USA and World population by a factor of 1.785. Thats 78.5% more than the entire population of the USA and the World. Since I have not gotten SARS or Pneumonia recently, a lot of people are in Deep Do-Do if you are correct. In fact they can look forward to getting sick with this stuff a number of times, if my calculator is correct.
8. My suggestion to you all is to see how long you all can hold you breath.
9. Cheer-e-oh, you all.
43 posted on
04/26/2003 12:14:04 PM PDT by
ido_now
To: ido_now
It has been reported, and it seems reasonable to me, that there are 50,000 deaths each year in the USA due to Influenza (Pneumonia). If this is the case then this follows by mathematics:
Influenza and Pneumonia are not the same. The former frequently leads to the latter in the case of bacteriological pneumonia. While influenza and some types of pneumonia are viral, they are different pathogens.
Your calculations don't take into account the "s" curve nature of infection rates as they peak over a broad population, and they assume that people can contract the same disease twice. After peaking, the infection rate will drop off due to the scarcity of previously uninfected victims among the population pool and the decreasing probability of these uninfected pool members contacting each other...
52 posted on
04/26/2003 12:57:06 PM PDT by
Axenolith
(Hey, look at that little critter...Yaaaa! GET IT OFF! GET IT OFF!!!!)
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