[per loin]

I've become a bit suspicious of Hong Kong's figures. Until April 15, they each day listed new admissions to the hospitals. Since that day they have listed "patients confirmed to have atypical pneumonia following admission to public hospitals earlier". Then two days ago they began to list "suspected cases" who were already hospitalized, but not carried in the confirmed list. They do not say when they began admitting these "suspects". Nor do they state whether their number of "suspects" given each day is a total or the number of new admissions. I'm now carrying the suspects in my chart, in a separate column, and assuming that they are new admissions for each day.

[Judith Anne]

Good morning. Fox's doctor was on this morning, Dr. Rosenfeld--is that his name?--and he was saying the same things that we've concluded:

No accurate test

No effective treatment

Unknown if patients can get it more than once

Serious matter of concern

[EternalHope]

I've become a bit suspicious of Hong Kong's figures.

Good observations.

You might also note that Hong Kong, although technically a "separate" administrative region, is still part of China. The Chinese sent a "medical expert/advisor" to Hong Kong about the time you noted a change in the way Hong Kong was reporting numbers. It is quite possible that Hong Kong was ordered to make their numbers look better.

It should also be noted that Hong Kong had reached the practical limit of their medical system by mid April (duly noted on FR, by the way). They changed their treatment protocol at the same time. Deaths immediately went up, but so did the number of people released. This had the apparent effect of lowering the number of reported SARS victims in the hospital.

Your excellent observation about the change in the way they were classifying patients, combined with a change in treatment that may have been designed to free up beds even if it meant more people would die, may be quite significant.

I continue to hope that the Hong Kong numbers do, in fact, mean what they seem on the surface to mean: Hong Kong is gradually getting SARS under control.

However, if they have messed with their reporting enough, then we may be seeing nothing more than a change in strategy. In that event, the reported numbers do not tell us anything meaningful.

[CathyRyan]

So I may have been feeling better over numbers in cooked books?

[CathyRyan]

You would think as careful and afraid as people are in HK there would be no new cases. The place is like a ghost town and yet they still have new cases. People are limiting contact and woe be unto you if you cough in public. I would expect for the number to be lower really. imho