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To: Lessismore
The probability that one or more of you will die is 68%.

That would only be if you actually got the disease... LOL! Otherwise, if it were 68% for all of us the environmentalists would be thrilled as it would help get the world population down to 1 billion where they think it should be!!!

19 posted on 04/27/2003 8:58:53 AM PDT by Kay Ludlow
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To: Kay Ludlow
That would only be if you actually got the disease... LOL!

I was assuming a household of 4, living together, who all came down with the disease and each had a probability of 25% of dying from it.

In reality, there is a pretty good chance that if one person in a family living together gets SARS, the other ones will get it as well. It is like flu or measles or chicken pox in that regard. However, it is true that not all would come down.

Age has a big impact as well. If it is a pair of parents in their 30s with two small children, the children are very likely to survive and the parents have only a 1 or 2 percent chance of dying, assuming they aren't immunosupressed or have other medical conditions.

If it is adult children (50s) living with aged parents (70s or 80s), the odds are pretty good that both aged parents die and that at least one of the children dies as well.

Loosed in a senior citizen's home, SARS would empty the place.

20 posted on 04/27/2003 9:40:24 AM PDT by Lessismore
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