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History's pandemics should prepare us
Denver Post ^ | May 1, 2003 | Penelope Purdy

Posted on 05/01/2003 10:42:41 PM PDT by FairOpinion

Ring around the rosy.

Bubonic plague creates reddish welts on the neck.

Pocket full of posies.

Medieval people thought putting flowers in their clothes staved off death.

Ashes, ashes.

Houses of the dead sometimes were torched.

We all fall down.

Entire families perished.

Some historians believe the common children's rhyme may have been an attempt by children to cope with the long-ago horrors that swept Europe from about 1300 to about 1600. In the first five years that the plague ravaged Europe, it killed at least 25 million people. Millions more succumbed in the pandemic's later waves - dwarfing today's SARS outbreak.

Epidemics create chaos. They wreck human societies, discredit governments, change history. It's a harsh lesson we're having to relearn, even today.

SARS may have done the world a favor by showing how unprepared governments are for a new contagion. It should shake our politicians out of their dangerous complacency. Every U.S. city is more vulnerable to bioterrorism than most political leaders want to admit.

We know much more about contagious diseases than medieval folk did. Scientists have developed near- miraculous vaccines and treatments for diseases that only a few decades ago meant almost certain death. Yet just when we think we've got Nature figured out, a new microscopic bogeyman comes along. Unlike medieval times, when germs spread between villages only as fast as people could travel by horse, in today's world, jet travel enables modern plagues to jump continents in a day.

SARS originated in rural China, but has caused at least 11 suspected cases in Colorado. "One of the things we've learned is just how many people in Colorado travel to China," an astounded public health official said. Colorado, like the rest of the world, was put at risk because the Chinese government wouldn't reveal the epidemic's true extent early on - much as medieval villages often tried to hide a plague outbreak.

Like SARS, many new viral diseases originate in rural China, where traditional agricultural practices still put large numbers of chickens, pigs and humans in close quarters, enabling viruses to jump from poultry to pigs to people. All it takes to ignite a pandemic is for a rural farmer to visit a nearby city and rub elbows with an urban businessman, who gets infected, then climbs aboard an airliner and takes the disease anywhere in the world.

The lessons of medieval plagues underscore the vulnerability of dense human populations to new infections - and humans live in close quarters in both industrial and developing nations. The Black Death provides a classic example.

Most historians believe the Black Death was bubonic plague, because scholars of the time described red welts on victims' necks. But some scientists think the Black Death was an Ebola strain, because it turned victims' internal organs into a mushy mess much like Ebola does. Ebola's calling card. Scientists still aren't sure where the Ebola virus hides between lethal outbursts. If Black Death was Ebola, there's no guarantee it won't return, and there may not be a cure if it does.

Unnerving? Yes. But it's not the only mystery in the history of disease. The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic killed up to 40 million people worldwide, including more than 600,000 in the United States. Some victims felt healthy in the morning, fell ill at noon, and died by sundown. Scientists haven't identified that virus, so there's no vaccine for it - or any reason it couldn't return.

But SARS and Spanish Flu were natural outbreaks. Imagine how quickly a viral disease could spread if intentionally released.

Disease as a weapon of mass destruction isn't new. The plague may have entered Eastern Europe in the early 1300s when Tartars besieging the town of Caffa catapulted diseased corpses into the walled city. The illness infected the defenders, who fled and took the virus home with them.

Five centuries later, on a steamship docked on the upper Missouri River, one crewman fell sick with smallpox. The captain probably knew how contagious smallpox could be, but he still bartered with local Indian tribes, leaving behind trade blankets contaminated with the virus. The resulting epidemic almost obliterated the Mandan tribe.

Smallpox is contagious with casual contact, lives a long time outside its hosts and lingers on common objects such as blankets. It kills 30 percent of its victims, but the toll is higher in populations never previously exposed to it - which describes almost everyone alive today: The last natural smallpox case was in 1979, and the vaccine given to people decades ago probably has lost its effectiveness. So if smallpox reappears, the toll might be devastating. Just one smallpoxcase anywhere in the world today would be a disaster for humanity.

Yet public health officials oppose restarting a mass vaccination program, believing they can contain an outbreak by isolating infected individuals, who only spread the virus once the telltale pustules appear. Trouble is, health officials are thinking like doctors, not terrorists. And terrorists don't need an infected person to spread disease; they just need a 21st-Ccentury version of contaminated trade blankets.

This week, an Egpytian ship's crewman died of anthrax after handling a suitcase contaminated with the bacteria. Police in Brazil, where the man died, speculate the suitcase was part of a bioterrorism plot, Fox News reported.

Ironically, anthrax is a poor weapon of mass destruction because it doesn't easily spread from person to person. Smallpox, however, jumps readily from victim to victim. can be spread, as previously noted, by inanimate objects.

Picture a madman spraying smallpox-laden liquid on the turnstiles of a football stadium before the Super Bowl. Or visualize terrorists contaminating a train car full of consumer goods - toys, pajamas, etc. Either way, within weeks, smallpox could erupt in several U.S. cities simultaneously.

A "pocket full of posies" won't save us. Better planning and prevention might.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Extended News; Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: anthrax; bioterrorism; epidemics; pandemics; plague; sars; smallpox; spanishflu
Note her menition that Ebola turns people's internal organs to mush. Wasn't it reported that the Egyptian sailor's organs were turned to mush? (That's the guy on the Egyptian ship going from Brazil to Canada, who was first thought to have died of anthrax, than then reported it wasn't anthrax, but they didn't know what it was yet.)
1 posted on 05/01/2003 10:42:41 PM PDT by FairOpinion
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To: FairOpinion
Interesting article - and quite chilling in the pictures it leaves behind.
2 posted on 05/01/2003 10:49:01 PM PDT by txzman (Jer 23:29)
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To: FairOpinion
And just why is it that we can't go to a nurse practitioner and get a smallpox shot?
3 posted on 05/01/2003 10:57:00 PM PDT by Iconoclast2
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To: FairOpinion
As far as I am concerned, the ideal transmission medium is illegal drugs, especially cocaine. Note that Venzeula's Chavez has reportedly moved a Cuban bioterror lab into Colombia to work directly with FARC.

The drug pipeline is well established, widely distributed, and the means of infection is extremenly efficient. Transmission to nearly every population center in the nation would be virtually immediate. People would be snorting it for more than a week before anybody was the wiser.

It's a natural. I can't imagine that this hasn't occurred to terrorists, either.
4 posted on 05/01/2003 11:14:18 PM PDT by Carry_Okie (There are people in power who are truly evil.)
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To: Carry_Okie
If this is true (regarding Chavez and Cuban bio labs) Chavez AND Castro should be "dealt with" inside of a month.

This is the neighborhood outside our back door. When the opportunity presents itself, break out the Predators.

5 posted on 05/02/2003 12:38:40 AM PDT by happygrl
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To: Carry_Okie
Maybe that's what was in the suitcase of the Egyptian sailor: tainted drugs.

BTW there is another mysterious sailor death on a ship leaving Brazil. This one DIDN'T die of SARS, but, as with the first guy, no idea, what he DID die of.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/904303/posts
6 posted on 05/02/2003 12:43:39 AM PDT by FairOpinion
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To: Iconoclast2
//And just why is it that we can't go to a nurse practitioner and get a smallpox shot?//

Well, just think about it. Lots of reasons:

A person who gets the shot can unintentionally spread smallpox to others. It can be contagous for about two weeks.

The infected spot on a person's arm can cause blindness if just a little bit gets in the eyes.

Nasty side effects: Some people get severe organ damage, some people die from it.

It's an insurance nightmare that the government doesn't want to even think about.

Having the smallpox vacine available in large quantities also means that it could be more easily acquired by terrorists. They could experiment with it and come up with something even worse.

Yikes. No thanks, I think I'll pass on getting the shot unless I really, really need it.

7 posted on 05/02/2003 12:46:55 AM PDT by powderhorn
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To: FairOpinion
Ring around the rosy...I think I read something different about the meaning of this. One of the effects of bubonic plague is really, really serious diarrhea. So the reddish rash would be a ways away from the back of the neck.

Pocket full of posies...Ah, perhaps to stave off death, but also to ward off some of the unpleasant smell.

8 posted on 05/02/2003 1:00:59 AM PDT by powderhorn
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To: powderhorn
A person who gets the shot can unintentionally spread smallpox to others. It can be contagous for about two weeks.

I'll stop you right here. You are a victim of misinformation. The smallpox vaccine does NOT contain the smallpox virus, only a mild virus named vaccinia. This can be harmful to people with compromised immune systems, however, they had done tests and developed 100% effective bandages, that keep the virus in, so as long as you keep the bandage on, you and those around you are perfectly safe.

9 posted on 05/02/2003 1:09:03 AM PDT by FairOpinion
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To: FairOpinion
//...only a mild virus named vaccinia. This can be harmful to people with compromised immune systems,...//

OK. I'll consider myself as stopped in my tracks. But I'll still wait a while before getting in line for a shot.

10 posted on 05/02/2003 1:21:36 AM PDT by powderhorn
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To: powderhorn
Lots of reasons:

All of the reasons not to vaccinate that you give are very weak.

I was born in 1945 and when I grew up everyone was vaccinated against smallpox. The vaccination was always given on the outside of the arm, right near the shoulder.

My parents were both born in 1920 and they were both vaccinated. My mom had a scar the size of a quarter on her arm, my dad's scar was much smaller, but still noticeable--better vaccine.

I never saw anyone's arm who had not been vaccinated. By the time I was vaccinated the technique was better still and my scar is very inconspicuous, but everyone I ever saw in the entire US had a vaccination scar. I can still remember watching movies and seeing scars on all the actors--even extras playing primitive tribesmen.

I am certain there were side effects, and deaths, but the numbers were very low.

Like it or not, the US is a target of very evil people, and this is one of the easiest civil preparedness measures the nation could take.

You may not want to be vaccinated, and that is your right. But the medical establishment is trampling all over my right to be vaccinated if I want to be.

By the way, the vaccinations were given to kids who are always rubbing their eyes and I never even heard of anyone going blind from eye contamination, much less meeting anyone with that problem.

The vaccine is not made from smallpox, but from a related bacteria. If there is a contageous period it would not be actual smallpox that was transmitted.

11 posted on 05/02/2003 1:27:51 AM PDT by CurlyDave
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To: powderhorn
I think people should be screened, because there are people who would react adversely even to this virus, I am all for doing that and making informed decisions.
But also remember, that the vaccine used to be mandatory -- yes, this very same vaccine -- and there were no major casualties from it.

I think the vaccine should be made available, so those who want it, can discuss it with their doctors and get it, if they so choose. And those who choose to not take it, would be able to opt for that too.

The main issue is, that if we do have a terrorist attack, it won't be like a natural spread, where one person gets it, but there will be hundreds, even thousand coming down with it all at once, so trying to vaccinate everyone everywhere will be totally impossible, just think, regardless of what they are claiming.

But if a large fraction, as in most people have already been vaccinated, that would stop and slow down the spread, and protect to some extent, even those who aren't vaccinated.

Also, if someone is likely to have a problem as a result of a vaccine, the best time to have it is when there is no panic, and they could have extra medical attention ( they also have specific immune globulin against vaccinia, which would help the immune systems of those having a negative reaction). If someone has a negative reaction to the vaccine, when thousands of people are coming down with real smallpox, I don't think they will get all the care they need, just because it won't be physically possible.

=====
How dangerous is smallpox?
Historically, smallpox killed about 30 percent of those infected. The mortality rate varied with age (with small children and the elderly proving the most vulnerable) and with the strength of a person’s immune system (with preexisting illness or malnutrition making one more susceptible). Less frequently, complications such as encephalitis (an inflammation of the brain) and blindness also resulted. Smallpox is one of the most devastating diseases known to humankind, having killed between 300 and 500 million people in the twentieth century alone.

From: http://www.terrorismanswers.com/weapons/smallpox.html
12 posted on 05/02/2003 1:55:08 AM PDT by FairOpinion
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To: powderhorn
With all due respect, I think you're falling for government propaganda. We had smallpox vaccinations in this country for decades and none of these things happened to any significant degree.

When you say, "no thanks, I think I'll pass on getting the shot unless I really, really need it", you don't seem to recognize that you no longer have the freedom to make that choice. It is now up to the government to decide if you really, really need it, and given the way the government works, a great deal of people will probably have to die before the government will even make the choice.

13 posted on 05/02/2003 5:45:24 AM PDT by Iconoclast2
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To: powderhorn
A person who gets the shot can unintentionally spread smallpox to others.

This is false. The virus in the vaccination is vaccina, after which the process was named. Our parents had us get vaccinated. How many problems were there then?

14 posted on 05/02/2003 7:16:51 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (There are people in power who are truly evil.)
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To: Carry_Okie
//This is false. The virus in the vaccination is vaccina, after which the process was named. Our parents had us get vaccinated. How many problems were there then?//

Yes, the current version of the smallpox vacine is vaccina. The previous version was real smallpox in a weakened form cultured from infected cows. The problem with the old variety was that it was difficult to maintain quality standards, so it was often totally ineffective.

The new stuff sets a much higher standard for quality, but it has more side effects.

15 posted on 05/03/2003 12:03:30 AM PDT by powderhorn
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To: CurlyDave
//I was born in 1945 and when I grew up everyone was vaccinated against smallpox. The vaccination was always given on the outside of the arm, right near the shoulder.//

I was born in 1947. Yup, I too remember waiting in line as a second grader for that shot. And I got another one in 1966, just before going to Vietnam.

But that wasn't the same stuff that is being used today. It was real smallpox in a weaker form cultured from infected cows. It had a very low range of side effects, but it also had a lower range of effectiveness.

16 posted on 05/03/2003 12:14:53 AM PDT by powderhorn
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