Abu Mazen’s Alternative to Terrorism-Is it a demographic bomb?

Death and destruction aside, what is most disturbing about Tuesday's terrorist attack in Tel Aviv is who has claimed responsibility. The attack was jointly planned by Hamas and the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, according to Agence France Presse.

But the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades are tied to Fatah, and Fatah is the organization of Yasser Arafat — and of Mahmoud Abbas, a.k.a. Abu Mazen. A terrorist attack by the Martyrs' Brigades, in association with Hamas, just hours after Abu Mazen was confirmed as the new Palestinian Authority prime minister, sends an unmistakable message about the chances for Arab-Israeli peace anytime soon.

Perhaps the terrorists underestimate Abu Mazen. Perhaps even now he is preparing a muscular response. In his inaugural address, delivered just prior to the attack, Abu Mazen denounced terrorism "by any party and in all its shapes and forms" — a way of saying "Israel does it, too" (but since even Reuters and the BBC display that sort of moral relativism it would be unfair to expect more of any Arab leader at this point).

Most media reports have said that Abu Mazen "suggested" that his new government will move against terrorist groups — as President Bush has demanded before there can be movement toward Palestinian statehood. But if you actually read Abu Mazen's address you'll see that his "suggestion" was vague at best. "The unauthorized possession of weapons," he said, "is a major concern that will be relentlessly addressed." That sounds more like Sarah Brady than it does an antiterrorist warrior.

No one should underestimate how much courage it will require for Abu Mazen to actually take up arms against Hamas and- perhaps even more — against such groups as the Martyrs' Brigades. But until and unless Abu Mazen does use force to stop terrorism it would be wishful thinking to describe his ascendency as anything but public relations — Araftism with a human face.

Also unclear is whether Abu Mazen's dispute with Hamas and other terrorists groups reflects new thinking — or just new tactics. In other words, has Abu Mazen genuinely come to the conclusion that after more than a half century of warfare it's time for the Arab world to accept Israel and live in peace as Israel's neighbors? Or has he merely come to the conclusion that terrorism is unlikely to achieve the goal of destroying Israel — and that there is a better way to achieve victory?

In his Tuesday inaugural, Mazen emphasized "the importance of the question of refugees … we are speaking of millions of Palestinian refuges around the world." He added that a "solution to the refugee problem consistent with international law (particularly U.N. Resolution 194) will be the basis of peace and coexistence."

That's a reference to the "right of return" which is code for the destruction of Israel by demographic means. Under Resolution 194, "refugees wishing to return to their homes and live at peace with their neighbors should be permitted to do so at the earliest practicable date."

If Israel were to accept that, there would be an influx of — as Mazen says — "millions of Palestinian refugees" demanding Israeli land and citizenship. Israelis would become a minority in their own country. Israel would cease to be a Jewish state — and, in fact, would cease to exist.

It's unlikely that Abu Mazen will have a difficult time persuading the U.N., the European Union, and Russia — three of the four members of the "Quartet" that is meant to orchestrate the peace process — to support this formula. None of those entities have been anything but hostile toward Israel for years. (Significantly, they've been decreasingly cordial to the U.S. as well.)

But it is impossible to imagine Ariel Sharon or any other Israeli leader regarding Abu Mazen's proposal as anything but surrender — not least because roughly half Israel's people are Mizrahis, Jews (or the children of Jews) who fled oppression in the Arab countries they had called home for centuries.

According to early reports, the "Road Map" presented Wednesday to Abu Mazen and Sharon does not mention Resolution 194. Nevertheless, it would useful if President Bush were to make clear to Abu Mazen and the Quartet that if they see Arab immigration into Israel as the path to "peace," they are heading for a dead end.

— Clifford D. May, a former New York Times foreign correspondent, is the president of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a think tank on terrorism, and an NRO contributor.

I think it was William Safire who recently wrote that there wouldn't be democracy in an Arab state until you could lose an election and live. For hundreds of years, political activity in Arabia meant clandestine political activity. You didn't register as a Democrat or a Republican. You joined a conspiracy.

Peace will not come about in the Middle East simply through the creation of another repressive state in which political activity is carried out with the dagger, pistol and bomb. If an insistence on democracy is not made part of the Road Map, what is to distinguish the proposed Palestinian State from Lebanon? Or Syria?

The great tragedy of the Middle East is that no one, especially not the radical Muslims, cares a fig for the people in Palestine. All they want is another gangster state in which to act out their sick pseudo-masculine fantasies. America should know better. We should insist on Palestine for the Palestinians, not the Palestinian thugs.

No state for a non people nowhere, no time. They have all gathered from different near east countries. Let them GO home where they came from. They all already have one
...somewhere. But it ain't Israel.

But Mazen IS a terrorist. He started out with Arafat. This looks more to me like sibling rivalry than a step for peace. Both have the same goals. And both are jealous of each other. Good dueling point.

This looks more to me like sibling rivalry than a step for peace...

You may be right, though I wouldn't rule out the possibility that it's a well coordinated dance. Not many new faces in the "PA cabinet", they just reshuffled the deck (maybe we should have done that in Iraq, I bet Tarik Aziz would have been willing to run the place). And Mazen is younger, and appears to be in better health, so he's got more time to achieve a river to sea solution, his objective.

I think it was William Safire who recently wrote that there wouldn't be democracy in an Arab state until you could lose an election and live.

Before that, people need to be able to vote for the opposition and live. It's no accident tyrants like Arafat and Sadaam win mandates, in Yasser's case about 88% and no more elections.

But Mazen IS a terrorist.

Also, I'm certain Mazeb will stamp out terror since he, like Yasser, doesn't consider resistance terror. They'll arrest the terrorists (Israeli informants and the like) and leave the freedom fighters alone.

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