[harpseal]

There are certain things we do know which indicate exponential growth which is the normal way the number of cases for a communicable disease such as SARS will increase. We still do not know the rate of growth per se. China's past lies ghave deprived us of good data to determine that. For that matter we do not even know that China is now telling the truth.

[aristeides]

I was alarmed myself back in the early weeks of the outbreak that the growth rate seemed geometric, but since then the spread seems to have more or less come under control in places outside of China, with the numbers of cases increasing only arithmetically or even declining. Now the China figures are more and more outweighing the figures from other places, and, as long as the disease is out of control there, the worldwide figures will more and more resemble geometric growth.