Iraq War's Impact Spreads in Arab World

AP | 5/03/03 | PAUL GEITNER

[kattracks]

Iraq War's Impact Spreads in Arab World

By PAUL GEITNER .c The Associated Press

CAIRO, Egypt (AP) - While President Bush has declared major fighting over in Iraq, the repercussions of the war for the rest of the Mideast are just starting to be felt, and it's an open question about whether for better or worse.

Radical regimes in Syria and Iran are suddenly toning down the anti-U.S. rhetoric and urging dialogue. Authoritarian leaders in Egypt and Jordan are talking - with varying degrees of enthusiasm - about democratization, while militants in the streets of Cairo and Amman predict a wave of new recruits to fight the American occupiers and their supporters.

``Announcing the end of the military operations doesn't mean the end of the war,'' said Tareq Masarweh, a prominent Jordanian columnist who foresees ``popular resistance'' as long as the U.S. military remains in Iraq.

How the replacement of Saddam Hussein with a presumably pro-U.S. government in Baghdad will affect regional politics is one of the biggest uncertainties.

Awed by Washington's display of firepower in Iraq, no one looks likely to claim Saddam's mantle as leader of defiance to the West.

Even Syria, which likes to refer to itself as the ``heart of Arabism,'' welcomed U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell this weekend for tough talk about its own weapons program, allegations that Damascus aided Saddam's regime and links to terrorism.

``The U.S. doesn't need to invade any more countries,'' said Iman Hamdi, an expert on Mideast affairs at the American University in Cairo. ``We've got the message.''

Lebanon also has felt the heat because of the presence there of the Syrian- and Iranian-backed Hezbollah guerrilla group, which is on the State Department's list of terrorist organizations.

Beirut regards Hezbollah as a legitimate resistance movement against Israel. But Hezbollah's leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, seems worried too.

``In the end, we are facing a new reality,'' he told supporters after the U.S. victory in Iraq.

Iranian hard-liners are signaling a new willingness to consider the possibility of restoring ties with Washington, cut since the 1979 Islamic revolution and hostage-taking at the U.S. Embassy.

Iran's former president threw his weight last month behind the idea of a referendum on restoring ties - an idea believed to have broad popular support despite official opposition.

After Washington charged Iran was trying to promote an Iranian-style theocracy in Iraq, Tehran was quick to deny it.

``Tehran does not want any friction with Washington over issues concerning Iraq,'' said Hasan Rowhani, secretary of Iran's powerful Supreme National Security Council.

Some have suggested Washington's professed determination to establish a democratic government in Iraq could have a domino effect in the region - depending on how it goes.

``If it fails and Iraq descends into civil strife ... the effect would be devastating,'' said Fawaz Gerges, professor of Mideast studies at Sarah Lawrence College in New York. ``Militant forces would be strengthened. America's vital interests and local allies would be endangered.''

Some of those moderate allies have been taking democratic steps, even if small ones.

Bahrain had its first parliamentary elections in three decades last October. Qatari voters approved their first constitution this week and the first parliamentary elections are expected next year.

In Jordan, which has been without a parliament for two years, King Abdullah II promises elections will finally go ahead June 17.

``That'll get us back on the right track as quickly as possible,'' he said in a CNN interview. ``We're not looking over our shoulder. I mean we're looking to the future and moving.''

By contrast, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak dismissed the notion that ``imposing democracy by force'' in Iraq would result in wholesale reforms in the Islamic world or a lessening of fanaticism.

He said Wednesday that Arab countries were trying to bring democracy ``according to their own standards.''

Mubarak wields ultimate control in Egypt under emergency laws in place since the 1981 assassination of his predecessor, Anwar Sadat, by extremists opposed to the peace deal with Israel.

Saudi Arabia, an absolute monarchy, is also feeling rattled.

Just before the war, the ruling family allowed human rights teams to visit and meet with reformers, a signal that it senses change is the best way to protect its rule.

Mass popular disillusionment with Arab governments after the Iraq war could also undermine the already divided 22-nation Arab League.

Rounds of summitry over the Iraq crisis degenerated into bickering and name-calling. Joint pronouncements against the war were undermined by some members who helped the U.S.-led invasion force, whether overtly or quietly.

The league's ``teeth are made of flesh,'' said Ayed al-Manna, a political analyst in Kuwait, which has sharply criticized the league.

Some analysts say the main impact of the war may be to force Arabs and their leaders to address their problems - and the rest of the world - more honestly.

``The only positive thing in the long run is it's going to make people here wake up to all the illusions they have with the West,'' Hamdi said. ``It puts things in perspective and maybe then we can find a way to better serve our own interests.''

05/03/03 10:34 EDT

[kattracks]

While President Bush has declared major fighting over in Iraq, the repercussions of the war for the rest of the Mideast are just starting to be felt, and it's an open question about whether for better or worse.

So, where's the "worse"?

[tet68]

``If it fails and Iraq descends into civil strife ... the effect would be devastating,'' said Fawaz Gerges, professor of Mideast studies at Sarah Lawrence College in New York. ``Militant forces would be strengthened. America's vital interests and local allies would be endangered.''

Are they NOT already?

[BrooklynGOP]

Beirut regards Hezbollah as a legitimate resistance movement against Israel. But Hezbollah's leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, seems worried too. ``In the end, we are facing a new reality,'' he told supporters after the U.S. victory in Iraq.

That says it all.

[cake_crumb]

"Radical regimes in Syria and Iran are suddenly toning down the anti-U.S. rhetoric and urging dialogue. Authoritarian leaders in Egypt and Jordan are talking - with varying degrees of enthusiasm - about democratization, while militants in the streets of Cairo and Amman predict a wave of new recruits to fight the American occupiers and their supporters"

I somehow doubt the terrorists (media militants) are gonna be as prolific as the media hopes. Terrorist attacks last year dropped to their lowest levels since 1968 or '69. Binny's stronger horse. Arab leaders have definitely taken note. Not just of US strength, but of the possiblity that THEY can now begin cracking down on the worst of the Islamakazis in relative safety. The 'Arab street' will simply blame the unjust war on terrorism.

[liberallarry]

``We've got the message.''
``In the end, we are facing a new reality,''
Iranian hard-liners are signaling a new willingness to consider...restoring ties with Washington
``Tehran does not want any friction with Washington over issues concerning Iraq,''
``...it's going to make people here wake up to all the illusions they have with the West...It puts things in perspective and maybe then we can find a way to better serve our own interests.''

Does anyone still wonder about the real purpose of the war?
But there are risks

``If it fails and Iraq descends into civil strife ... the effect would be devastating...Militant forces would be strengthened. America's vital interests and local allies would be endangered.''

[Teetop]

Too bad the Arabs didn't remember what Yamamoto said after the attack on Pearl Harbor, "We have awoken the sleeping giant."

[cake_crumb]

"Too bad the Arabs didn't remember what Yamamoto said after the attack on Pearl Harbor, 'We have awoken the sleeping giant.' "

That would entail taking at least partial responsibility for their actions. The Islamakis prefer to whine, cringe and blame US 'imperialism' for their atrocities.

[stevem]

You honestly have to wonder what dark questions they ask one another in their live meetings in the smoke filled rooms. You have to wonder with greater enthusiasm what they must be asking themselves in the deepest chasms of their evil souls...What happened? What went wrong? These guys were all bark and no bite! Now those weasels in Al Qaeda are dead or quiet or running for their miserable, worthless lives. And here we sit. D--n it, I can't sleep anymore! When will one of those d--n things fall out of the sky and make a giant hole where I'm sitting, or failing to sleep. What happened? Whose terminally stupid idea was to attack the Great Satan, anyway?

It's reminiscent of one of those made for TV Gunsmoke movies when Matt Dillon (Jim Arness) rode into town with three lynching victims slung across horses. Then he went into a saloon and killed two other guys. One of the town's people went to the deputy and said Dillon had to be arrested. The deputy said, "Hold on there. He came into town trailing three dead bodies. He's just accounted for two more, and it ain't even noon yet! You want him arrested, you arrest him!"

[LS]

Uh, sorry, but "Tora, Tora, Tora," said that, not Yamamoto. He never made the statement. But your point is well taken.

Let's ALL go back to the forcing down of that American plane in China, shall we? Remember all the conservative hawks were clamoring for war and "making China pay?"

Bush quietly, almost embarrassingly, spoke of the Chinese as our "friends" and that this issue would be resolved. It finally was.

Then Bush dropped the other shoe. He sold a slew of weapons (although not Aegis class anti-missile ships) to Taiwan, but even more important, he announced that any attack on Taiwan would initiate immediate American involvement in defending Taiwan! Buh=bye "one China" policy. Attention, "friends": you do not screw us and get away with it.

[ChadGore]

Re: ``Announcing the end of the military operations doesn't mean the end of the war,''

Their boy Saddom lost bad, really bad, and it's time they realize this. This "victory through defeat" argument they try to pump into their people is a looser, and people are seeing it live.

[MightyMouseToSaveThe Day]

This is my favorite line in that article:

``The U.S. doesn't need to invade any more countries,'' said Iman Hamdi, an expert on Mideast affairs at the American University in Cairo. ``We've got the message.''

[cake_crumb]

"Ditto for French diplomats."

Yep. All socialists, really.

[NetValue]

IMHO World War IV ended with the cessation of combat operations in IRAQ. Historians will say this was the turing point. Henceforth the rational self-interests of the Arab states came into focus; they developed real economies, they educated all their young, they even abandoned festering, centuries-old hatreds.

And America showed once more that conquest was not on its agenda but rather showing the world a path to new levels of peace, progress and wealth.

God, please make it so.

[Teetop]

I fear all we have done is awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.

Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto, upon learning of the success of the attack on Pearl Harbor
http://worldwar2history.info/quotes/

Fleet Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto - December 7, 1941
"I fear that all I have done is awakened a sleeping giant and filled him with a terrible resolve."
http://www.nhhouserepublicanalliance.org/notable_quotes.htm

http://if_i_could_only_fly.tripod.com/makotribute/id9.html

Yamamoto attended the Naval War College during the "teens" and later studied at Harvard University. As a Captain, he served as Naval Attache to the United States in 1925-28. In the late 1920s and during the 1930s, he held a number of important positions, many of them involved with Japanese naval aviation.
http://www.history.navy.mil/photos/prs-for/japan/japrs-xz/i-yamto.htm

Isoruko Yamamoto was the one who said this. He knew what America's power was from being in America for so many years. Just because it was also quoted in a movie or two, doesn't change the fact he actually said it.

[Filibuster_60]

Then Bush dropped the other shoe. He sold a slew of weapons (although not Aegis class anti-missile ships) to Taiwan, but even more important, he announced that any attack on Taiwan would initiate immediate American involvement in defending Taiwan! Buh=bye "one China" policy. Attention, "friends": you do not screw us and get away with it.

Actually Bush quickly retrenched and declared there hadn't been a change in our China policy. He only said that the US will do "whatever it takes" to keep Taiwan safe, which doesn't quite kill the ambiguity over what we'll do if China attacks. And after 9/11 he had to go back to talking to China as if it were our partner.

The decision not to sell AEGIS radar - even though Taiwan had requested it - was yet another compromise made to limit the damage to US-China relations.

On top of that, Taiwan's expected attack submarines haven't materialized because Germany and Holland have refused our request to construct the boats on Taiwan's behalf - we no longer build diesel-electric subs ourselves. Have we punished Germany and Holland for placing China's interests before ours?

[toddst]

Thanks for sorting the Yamamoto quote out so quickly. I was sure he did say it but hadn't come up with good sources.

[LS]

I see this much differently. "Whatever it takes" is nothing short of "we'll go to war." It is a UNIVERSE away from the Reagan/Bush/Clinton policy on China.

[LS]

You have cited "pop" sources, but these are WRONG. Virtually every serious history of the war in the Pacific, especially Japanese sources, attribute nothing of the sort to Yamamoto. The closest ANY Japanese leader came to saying this was Nagumo, but even then it isn't really a direct quote. This is quite a myth, though. (And, being from Dayton, I well know Yamamoto visited Wright Field).

[denydenydeny]

``In the end, we are facing a new reality,'' he told supporters after the U.S. victory in Iraq.

Schadenfreude bump.