Posted on 05/04/2003 5:56:40 PM PDT by adamyoshida
The Fall of Canada - Part 5 of 5 written by Adam Yoshida
2003-05-05
Canada is not a strong nation. Throughout all of our history, even when we were at our best, our fate has been dictated by events in outside of our control. We are a country at the mercy of waves, always at risk of running aground where we saw no ground. It is with this in mind that I assert that, if and when it comes, the final act of Canada's history will come at a time and place not of our choosing.
We have already examined the question of what the fate of the West and of Canada itself could be. Yet it seems that we have come to the conclusion without answering the all important question of "how". For this reason I will, briefly, attempt to sketch for you a scenario of just how Canada could, in the very near future, fly apart at the seems. It might be realistic, though it might not. Only time will tell that much.
The rise of Canada occurred due to American actions, so it seems only fitting that the fall of Canada would occur because of such actions as well. Let us suppose that, a decade from now, relations between the United States and the European Union have grown steadily worse, with international spats having already destroyed NATO and the United States using the model of the Iraq War against other enemies such as Iran and North Korea. The core states of the European Union (France and Germany) have moved in an increasingly anti-American direction, there is widespread fear of a 'New Cold War".
Obviously this sort of development would have fundamental effects on Canada. There would be immense pressure upon our government to 'choose sides' within the new struggle but, predictably, our political leaders would waver and hedge: hoping to, once more, find a 'Third Way'. However, despite our valiant aloofness, relations between the US and Europe continue to sour, with many of the smaller European states becoming restive over the actions of Paris and Berlin. The world economy slows as the trade links across the Atlantic begin to fray and snap.
Finally, as an open trade war erupts, one of the smaller and newer EU states (let us, at random, say that it is the Czech Republic) decides that it has had enough. It elects a new government which declares its intentions to leave the EU and sign a free trade agreement with the United States and her trading partners. The President of the European Union (who, under the planned constitution of that organization would have real power and authority) denounces the new Czech Government and declares that they will not allow a government to renounce the Union on the grounds that such a move would violate various humans rights standards set by the EU (if you think that's far-fetched, recall the response of a weaker EU to the election of a right-wing Austrian Government which did not even plan to leave the organization). The President of the United States declares that he will protect the sovereignty of the Czech Republic. The Atlantic Alliance is now definitively and totally broken- the United States and the European Union are now, at the very least, 'strategic competitors' and perhaps even enemies.
The Prime Minister of Canada now finds himself in a tough spot. From Quebec, he is personally sympathetic to the European Union, but fears American retaliation if he takes their side in the dispute. Polls show that people in the West support the Americans and many in the East support the Europeans. Being a Liberal, the Prime Minister remembers very well who elected him and who keeps on electing members of his party. Many senior members of his Party are rabidly anti American. Polls in Quebec show that 85% of the people support the European position on the matter. Finally, reluctantly, he speaks out on the matter- denouncing the American position and offering his services as a mediator between the US and EU.
So far as such statements go, it is relatively mild. However, when added upon the many, many, many anti-American comments made by members of the Government, and the staunchly anti-American tone of the CBC, all of which have gained wide notice in conservative American circles which never forgave Canada for its actions during the Iraq War and in the years that followed, it proves to be the straw that broke the camels back. A combination of conservative Republican and protectionist Democrats pass a number of trade measures designed to hurt the Canadian economy. Because they are attached to important bills, the US President signs them.
The country is bitterly divided as the effects of the changes are felt. Many are furious at the government for bringing calamity upon Canada while, at the same time, anti-American hate spreads more widely than it ever has before. Many of the more moderate members of the Liberal Party attempt to persuade the Prime Minister to reverse course. However, he is now set in his ways. As the economy slips into a nasty recession, thirty-six dissident Liberals announce their intention to vote for a motion of no confidence being brought by the opposition. The Prime Minister, bold when his own future is at stake, calls a snap election and refuses to sign the nomination papers of the dissidents.
For a month Canada's political parties fight what is universally seen as the most brutal election in all of the history of confederation. Both the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition call each other traitors. The Tories and the NDP sit on the sidelines and echo the same sentiments, while the Bloc Quebecois scrambles to hold on to something.
When it is over the Alliance has returned its best performance ever, winning 102 seats in the 301 seat House of Commons. The Liberals have even lost their majority, winning just 147 seats, four shy of those needed to form a government. However, the remaining seats are divided between nineteen Progressive Conservatives, thirty New Democrats (the NDP, as it always does, reaps great rewards from the revival of anti-Americanism) and a few Bloc members (increased support for the Liberals within Quebec destroyed what was left of that party). Even if the Alliance and the Tories could agree to sit together (which they cannot) they do not have enough seats to form a government. The NDP agrees to sit in a Liberal minority government on a single condition - that the new government scraps NAFTA. The Prime Minister readily agrees and pulls out John Turner's notes from 1988.
It is here where the worst problems come. After Canada's sudden and unexpected withdrawal from NAFTA, the US Congress passes a number of tariffs upon Canadian goods. The already-troubled Canadian economy dives even deeper into recession, bleeding off tens of thousands of jobs each day. There is immense pressure upon the government to retaliate against the Americans.
The Minister of Finance develops a plan to revive the Canadian economy and to hurt the Americans. The Federal Government, he declares, will nationalize all energy producers and cease exports to the United States. It will then sell power to Canadian consumers at rates far below the world cost and far below the costs to the average Canadian consumer. The plan, essentially, in the son of the National Energy Plan, only much worse.
At this point the Premier of Alberta steps into the Provincial Legislature and announces that he will not allow the Federal Government to destroy the prosperity of Alberta (which, to date, has been largely shielded from the effects of the failing economy). He declares that he will not allow any Albertan company to be nationalized, but does not specify how he will do so.
The Prime Minister is furious. He calls Parliament into session and rushes through his energy bill. When it is passed he orders the RCMP to take possession of all energy facilities in Alberta without delay. However, when they arrive at many locations, the RCMP is met by armed radicals and, deciding that discretion is the better part of valor,turns away. The Prime Minister responds by ordering armed troops to the scene, authorizing the use of force. In the clashes that follow five Albertans and one Canadian Forces Sergeant are killed. Rumors (untrue ones, as it would happen) rapidly spread of a 'massacre'. The Premier of Alberta calls for a referendum on secession while the Premier of British Columbia calls his own cabinet into a special session. As it becomes clear that the Federal Government cannot be opposed from within Parliament many Western members begin to leave Ottawa and head for home.
I will stop here, because I am not writing a techno thriller and because I believe that I have made my point. Where things would go from the point in anyone's guess but, suffice it to say, I am certain that it would not be terribly pleasant.
What is most frightening about the above scenario is just how much of it is drawn from what we have already seen in our history. We have seen a Prime Minister who would endanger our relations with the United States for the sake of domestic politics, more than one in fact. We have already had a National Energy Program and, by most accounts and by their actions, senior Liberals would be happy to impose another if they could.
The worst thing is the feeling that there isn't anything we can do to stop something like this from happening because, really, those of us in the West can't. Our choice is between electing Alliance members who will sit in futile opposition and Liberal members who will serve Eastern interests and Eastern interests alone, even if they're elected from Maple Ridge, British Columbia or Medicine Hat, Alberta. Altogether I believe we're better off electing members of the Alliance, though I don't know what good it will do.
The fate of confederation is not in our hands. Rather, it is in the hands of a select few who will do as they like and the most we can do about it is plan to deal with the consequences of their actions. That is what this series has been about- dealing with the reality that we are all unwilling to face. The Canada that we once knew is dead. We can cry, we can mourn, and we can grieve but, in the end, we must finally face that fundamental fact. While we can pray for a rebirth of a New Canada, we cannot count on it. Instead we must move onwards, into a hostile future and towards eternity.
Amazingly clear, for someone higher than a kite. Canada will not fall until the US falls. The saviest dude north of the border, Don Cherry, understands this. It's all about hockey after all....
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.