It is in the national interests of the U.S. to stop and, if possible, roll back the proliferation of nuclear states beyond the traditional Big Five.
Promising India that it will have the full protection of the U.S. nuclear umbrella, as do other U.S. allies, in the event of a Chinese nuclear attack would address the concern of such a Chinese attack to a much greater extent than India's own deterrence ever could.
I agree.
Promising India that it will have the full protection of the U.S. nuclear umbrella, as do other U.S. allies, in the event of a Chinese nuclear attack would address the concern of such a Chinese attack to a much greater extent than India's own deterrence ever could.
I disagree with the wisdom of this. In the short run, it would produce the effect you state it would. However, in the long run, we should minimize the number of nuclear guarantees we give. Injecting the US into more and more nuclear theaters on behalf of other nations, at the same time we lack a credible missile defense and are cutting our stategic weapons, is an act of foolish hubris. It will have the long-run effect of uniting our potential adversaries against us.
But only so long as George W. Bush, or any Republican, was President.
But where would a de-nuclearized India be if Bill Clinton, or any Democrat, was President?
So long as other nations cannot count on Americans to elect Presidents who keep the country's word, they will be obliged to maintain the means of their own self-defense.
Actually, as a fellow freeper said, one of the major reasons for India having nukes is China. Pakistan is a (major) additional incentive since it is a volatile nation with a twichy trigger-finger .....but the main baddie in the region is China!
Well, how does this tie up with your post? As follows: India already has a major poli-strategic link with Russia. It is so big it is in effect a symbiotic relationship.
The reason for this is because the biggest danger to Russia is Chinese expansion, currently in terms of population (the Russian population is falling rapidly and large areas of Siberia are being re-populated with Chinese immgrants), but in the future there is the chance of a potential Chinese military attack. In either case the greater military danger to Russia (large scale danger not some Checnyan terror raid) is China .....by far!
Now India also faces danger from China. Major peril! Pakistan has nukes, but it is no match for India (both qualitatively and quantitatively). Pakistan would knock out India's economy for what some estimate to be 2-4 years .....but India would totally decimate Pakistan (pakistan's missiles cannot even hit all of India's industrial centers but India's missiles can strike anywhere in Pakistan they want)! However China is a major danger since it is a regional juggernaut!
Now what has happened is that India and Pakistan have agreed to basically have each others' backs! For example in the event of an India-Pakistan war India relies on Russia to ensure that China does not attack its rear! Antoher example: Russia has been churning out new advanced weapon systems (and i do not mean the Soviet-era 70's vintage BS countries like Iraq and Syria buy but real good stuff) and guess who pays the Russians to do the research? The Indians! They foot the bankroll, and India is the only nation that Russia sells military hardware that is top of the line ......all other sales (even the ones to China) are what are referred to as 'monkey-model.'
The reason Russia does this is by making India into a major power (more major than it already is) then it guarantees itself a strong ally in case the Chinese should decide to create another '1000 year empire.' The Russians (and Indians) could implore the USA for help, but it is more prudent to have an ally who is next door and faces an imminent threat from the same enemy!
Obviosuly China will be a major threat to the US in the future, but Russia (and India) feel that they are in greater peril since they are literally adjacent to the kingdom of Chin!
Thus i find it hard to think India would ever let go of its nukes! Doing such a thing would be foolish for India since:
a) Pakistan is NOT to be trusted!
b)The 'China Factor.'
I think the Pakistanis made this silly offer because they feel threatened by India! After all India is qualitatively and quantitatively ahead of Pakistan and even though they are fanatical the Pakistanis have enough brain juice to try to bring some equilibrium.
I disagree a little here. The "Big Five" meaning US, UK, China, Russia and France? Are you sure that keeping France nuclear armed is a good idea? Their Muslim minority is growing fast and in 30-50 years could approach a majority of the French population.
I also doubt much that a US nuclear umbrella that is on the other side of the world from India/China would be very ideal for India, which shares a border in several places with China.
India does not trust us fully to rely on us for their protection. They play the middle ground between Russia, China and the U.S.. They will stick to owning their own nukes.