China's Countryside Facing "Extremely Serious" SARS Epidemic

Agence France-Presse ^ | Wednesday, May 07, 2003 | Robert J. Saiget

[Dog Gone]

It's a given that some of those people left Beijing with the virus. We're in the period where they should be starting to get sick and spreading the disease in their hometowns.

I don't think we're likely to get any good information on the numbers or extent of the rural illness in the next few months. I don't the Chinese will even have the numbers to lie about if they wanted to.

[!1776!]

...the new study - the first to be based on a statistically sound sample of 1,425 cases -puts the death rate at one in five (20%) of those admitted to hospital.

Not that SARS isn't serious, just wanted to add a little emphasis to the rest of the story...

Note, this bug is new, I doubt anyone would offer a guess as to how many people have been infected and not admitted to a hospital.

Unnecessary and sometimes even necessary panic often leads to poor decision making.

[jerseygirl]

major bump!

[discostu]

Here's the key sentence:
"The basic rural medical facilities are weak, technical capabilities are not adequate (and) the epidemic surveillance system is not sound."

Swap out "rural" and replace it with "Chinese" and the sentence is just as accurate and lets you know why this thing is running rampant in China and everybody else is getting their arms around it.

[WoofDog123]

"Note, this bug is new, I doubt anyone would offer a guess as to how many people have been infected and not admitted to a hospital. "

Or how many people are infected and have such mild symptoms they never even suspect.

[discostu]

I don't think they had a choice. Here's a map (not a good one, near as I can tell there are no good maps of Beijing) http://www.beijinghotelchina.com/travel/beijing_hotels.html
Hard to figure out how to close that all off. Remember they couldn't even manage to close of Tianimen Square. That's one of those things that's very easy to say needs to be done but very difficult to actually do.

[CT]

This story is intersting in several respects.

As a China watcher, I recall a story about 6 months ago that highlighted a coming social problem the Chinese Communists were struggling with. It seems they expected as many as 200 million people would leave the rural parts for the cities. And many then voiced concern that such a move could be a source of social unrest.

Now we still don't really know how the SARS virus developed. However, one should not rule out a "Red Hand" as a possible way this got started.

Tin Foil hat back in the drawer.

[aristeides]

SARS death rate to increase because of specialist shortage .

[aristeides]

Home quarantine for recovered SARS patients extended to 21 days .

[aristeides]

HOW NANJING OFFICIAL'S SELFISH ACT HURT OTHERS: 10,000 quarantined .

[Dog Gone]

It isn't under control in Taiwan, either, and they have better medical facilities. Unlike China, though, I expect they will get it under control. They're being as strict about it as Singapore is.

[discostu]

I lost track of Taiwan in all the shuffle.

[Centurion2000]

Breakout .... this is where it gets away from everyone.

[Centurion2000]

I can believe that it is that deadly but how many deaths are there considering the total number of cases ?

[RightWhale]

One would think that a disease with a low infection rate such as SARS would spread even more slowly in rural areas where the opportunity for infection is less than in highly populated areas and concentrations such as hospitals.

[blam]

"I don't think we're likely to get any good information on the numbers or extent of the rural illness in the next few months. I don't (think) the Chinese will even have the numbers to lie about if they wanted to."

One morning we'll wake up and everyone in China will be dead. ...And when we do, I want to go over there and dig into that big pyramid of the first emperor Chia. (I think was his name). They presently won't let anyone dig in it.

[Dog Gone]

I've never been to China, but I have the impression that rural does not mean lightly-populated. I think the fear is that there is no such thing as an isolation ward outside of the big eastern cities and one sick person in a village could infect far greater numbers than in the cities where quarantines are in effect.

[Poohbah]

SARS has got FR spooked.

Not one person has suggested that the Chinese countryside is facing a "vey series" SARS epidemic :o)

[adam_az]

If this thing spreads this fast outside China, it won't just be Series... it will be

[RightWhale]

There are communal houses in rural China, some fairly large. There, they live in close proximity to each other. There would be low levels of communication between villages, however: rural people tend to not travel a lot.