The reason we are dependent on oil for about 40% of our energy needs is because it is such a cheap and reliable source of energy, more convenient and cheaper than the alternatives. We will NOT stop using oil when we run out, we will stop using it, WHEN A BETTER ANSWER IS FOUND AND APPLIED.
When oil ceases to be cheaper, we will use alternatives, either with existing or new technology. We can be completely free of oil dependence, using TODAY's technology, ONLY BY CREATING CHEAPER ALTERNATIVES:
1. Convert 80% of our non-nuclear electric generation from coal and natural gas to nuclear power. Use the inherently safe pebble-bed nuclear technology or other new generation nuclear technology (lead-bismuth reactors etc), which also is more efficient and will produce less waste long-term. Add in renewables (wind, hydro) so we have fossil-free electricity generation capability. Bonus with nukes: no greenhouse gas emissions, and long-term lower cost than fossil fuels. It frees up natural gas to be used in a new way: transportation.
2. Switch to hybrid ICE/electrics to triple fuel efficiency, and enable those cars to run on natural gas and also electricity instead of oil. The gas saved in step #1 can be applied to the transport sector, so we won't be increasing use of natural gas.
3. Drill in Alaska, drill off the California coast, drill in deepwater Mexico. Buy local and become energy independent and use our own oil resources BEFORE TECHNOLOGY PASSES THEM BY!
4. Increase cost of oil and keep more of money spent on oil in America: Via oil import fees, oil taxation.
5. Use and encourage use of alternative transportation methods beyond the car. for example, Personal Rapid Transit systems built on electric powered maglev technology could displace cars in urban transit settings.
6. With the above reductions in demand and increases in supply, we can furthermore break the OPEC cartel, working with other energy consumer nations. Net result: more of the money paid for oil goes to our tax base, not theirs. We use less of it and pay less out to other nations for the amount we use. End result - our oil trade deficit declines significantly.
Result: While saving about $100 billion on our energy bill in the US, we can be free of dependence on foreign oil. We import 60% of our oil used, if we increase production 20% and cut our use in half, we will be free of foreign oil.
Let me restate: We will stop using oil when a better solution is found and applied. Oil will never run out. It will simply get more expensive/annoying/societally unacceptable than the alternatives and will get displaced by them. This will happen even though plenty of oil will lie under the ground, in oil shales, etc. IMHO, it will happen in the next 25 years. As stated by another technologist, the Stone Age didnt end for lack of stones.
It will simply get more expensive/annoying/societally unacceptable than the alternatives
Hell, I'm already annoyed!
You have just mentioned a host of technologies that are routinely lambasted by a lot of people. Yet you assert they are the 'optimal' ones. I merely asserted - in my first post - that a) things that people routinely say 'can't work' actually do work, and can be made to do so with the application of...thought! and that b) the real problem is a systems problem, i.e., which approach is 'optimal'? And I would also assert that the verdict - whatever it is - ain't anywhere near to being in. Energy independence? That is the goal. Do it like the military -- any way you can. But you have to know all the ways before you can make that decision. So, you look around. And after looking around, a rather large number of people have decided that...hydrogen based power production is promising. Is it..better than oil? Well, obviously, there's a lot of opinion about that. But we won't know until we try, and we haven't really begun to try. When $16 billion can go to Africa for 'AIDS awareness' but only $1.6 billion towards one branch of energy research, I know the government ain't trying too hard. But, the car companies seem to be, and it doesn't seem to all be political window dressing.