[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Bush Doctrine Unfolds :

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[alnitak]

Thanks Ernest, this article is spot on especially re the implications for Saudi Arabia. Not many people realise it, but the so-called oil-wealth of OPEC is not that large. It takes the US only 10 days of output to equal OPEC's entire annual oil income (circa $275 billion)!

I've posted the table below to oil related articles before, it is part of a longer article I worked up as a refutation of the "war for oil" argument. The operative column is "Annual Per Capita Oil Income (Unadjusted USD)". Note how low the figures for Iraq and Iran are.

In 2001, according to "Statistical Review of World Energy June 2002" by British Petroleum global oil production was 74.5 MBPD (million barrels per day, a barrel is 159 liters). Of this, 30 MBPD (40.7% of the total) was produced by the OPEC countries.

Table 1: OPEC Countries and their Incomes

Country	Date Joined OPEC	Location	2001 Oil Production (MBPD)	2001 Oil Production (% Of World Total)	2001 Population (Million)	2001 Total GDP (Unadjusted MUSD)	2001 GDP Per Capita (Unadjusted USD)	National Oil Income (Unadjusted MUSD)	Annual Per Capita Oil Income (Unadjusted USD)	2001 GDP Per Capita (PPP-USD)
Saudi Arabia	1960 *	Middle East	8.768	11.8	22.8	186,489	8,179	80,063	3,512	10,600
Iran	1960 *	Middle East	3.688	5.1	66.1	114,052	1,725	33,676	509	6,400
Venezuela	1960 *	South America	3.418	4.9	23.9	124,948	5,228	31,211	1,306	6,100
Iraq	1960 *	Middle East	2.414	3.3	23.3	NO DATA	NO DATA	22,043	946	2,500
United Arab Emirates	1967	Middle East	2.422	3.2	2.4	NO DATA	NO DATA	22,116	9,215	21,100
Nigeria	1971	Africa	2.148	2.9	126.6	41,373	327	19,614	155	840
Kuwait	1960 *	Middle East	2.142	2.9	2.0	32,806	16,403	19,559	9,780	15,100
Libya	1962	Africa	1.425	1.9	5.2	34,137	6,565	13,012	2,502	7,600
Indonesia	1962	Asia	1.41	1.9	228.4	145,306	636	12,875	56	3,000
Algeria	1969	Africa	1.563	1.8	31.7	54,680	1,725	14,272	450	5,600
Qatar	1961	Middle East	0.783	1	0.77	16,454	21,369	7,150	9,285	21,200
TOTALS			30.18	40.7	533	750,245		275,590

Sources: List of OPEC countries from OPEC - (*) indicates a founder member . Population figures and PPP GDP estimates from the CIA World Factbook via theodora.com. The unadjusted GDP figures are from the World Bank. The unadjusted GDP per capita is calculated by dividing total unadjusted GDP by the population. Oil production figures are from BP; please note that there are slight discrepancies in some of the percentages; Indonesia has a higher % than Algeria, but a lower MBPD figure, likewise Iraq vs. UAE. I am awaiting corrected data from BP. The errors are slight and do not affect conclusions drawn.

Populations: Several OPEC states have large populations of non-nationals. The population figures above include 5.4 million non-nationals for Saudi Arabia, 1.6 million for UAE, 1.2 million for Kuwait and 0.66 million for Libya. These populations have been included when calculating the GDP per capita figure.

National Oil Income USD: This figure is calculated using the formula Income = Production_in_MBPD * $cost_per_barrel * 365.25. Cost per barrel is set at $25, in line with recent oil prices. Since extraction costs are ignored, the result actually inflates the oil income slightly. The over-estimate is minor for the Gulf states, where extraction costs are $2 to $3 per barrel, but rather more for non-Gulf countries. No allowance has been made for export of refined products rather than raw oil - refined products are more valuable than raw oil. Also, no allowance has been made for domestic consumption. Dividing the figure in this column by the population gives the per capita oil income.

I have highlighted the countries where oil income per person is at a level which I consider significant from a Western perspective. 

Kuwait, UAE and Qatar stand out as societies that generate truly impressive income per person, even by Western standards, however they all have tiny populations. Indonesia, Iran and Nigeria have large populations and correspondingly small incomes per person. Saudi Arabia stands out for combining a moderate population and high oil income, fulfilling its reputation as the 800 pound gorilla of OPEC. Opinion varies as to what is the "natural" market price of oil, i.e. what would the average price be if the international market were fully efficient and free from the distorting impact of OPEC. A figure of $20 is often mentioned, yet the oil price was as low as $10 as recently as 1998. If $10 pertained, then these figures would need multiplying by 0.4. Such a factor would leave only Kuwait, UAE and Qatar as having a significant per-capita oil income! 

One figure not shown in the table is population growth rate, but all the countries have positive population growth. The Gulf States have some of the highest rates in the world - 2-5% - their populations will double in about 20 years at such rates, and all other things being equal their oil income per person will therefore halve during that period. This is not a new trend, it has been in place for many years. Historical data is hard to come by, but Iran's oil income per person income in 1995 was less than 10% of what it was in "the boom years" of the 1970s. According to The Economist's survey of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Saudi Arabia's GDP per head is now half its 1980s peak. This combination of rising populations and declining oil prices constitutes a severe, ongoing and worsening problem for the OPEC countries. 

The per capita incomes for Iran and Iraq are notably low, given the prominence these two countries usually receive as "oil titans". The Iranian figure of $509 is so low as to make it debatable whether Iran should be considered a petro-economy at all. Iraq's production could well double in the next decade as sanctions are lifted, modern technology is introduced and the country seeks to rebuild, but this will still not propel the country into a sybaritic life of pleasure and ease.

[McGavin999]

Knotty problem, but I think the Saudis are aware of it and are going to attempt to do something about it. It's a disgrace that the education system in those countries is so poor since their people have the intelligence to really contribute to the world. The main problem will be to get fundamentalism under control and as far as I'm concerned the best way to do that is to get the population working and producing.

With Iraq out of the way, a lot of money that has been diverted to defense could be aimed at education and investment in the business sector. They need to stop wasting money on things like trying to grow wheat in the desert (just import some of the cheap wheat that is available) and spend the money on things that will utilize their strengths. I'd rather see them exporting good rather than exporting fanatics.

[Mr. K]

You know it drives home the point that, if that dumbass SoDamn Hinsane had used the money to promote the well being of the people and the country, Iraq could have been a world leader...

[BOBTHENAILER]

For now, at least, U.S. policymakers envision Iraq as a swing producer, one that can provide just enough oil to even out world supply and demand and prop up prices. (If there were a truly free market in oil, crude would sell for $12 a bbl. or less instead of $26, and gasoline would go for less than $1 a gal.)

The authors blew this premise completely by not stating any facts to back up this specious claim, then followed it later with their own ammunition to undermine totally the "price fixing fantasy".

But in another scenario, oil prices could be pushed sharply downward, creating instability elsewhere, especially in Saudi Arabia. Which the U.S. will do almost anything to prevent—maybe.

Iraq could produce as much as 12 million bbl. daily, easily making it the world's No. 1 producer. If Iraq goes that route, the political fallout would be widespread. It would mean less money for the Russians, who are just beginning to get their economic house in order, thanks to oil exports. It would mean less money for an unstable Iran, which is suspected of developing nuclear weapons. It would mean less money for Texas oilmen and energy companies everywhere. It would mean less money for other emerging oil producers, which are betting that their more expensive-to-produce oil will be desperately needed. And most significantly, less money for Saudi Arabia.

I read this earlier on Drudge and was struck by the "price fixing fallacy". Other than the editorializing in an otherwise factual article, it makes for an informative and accurate portrayal of what will come.

The authors fail to note that crude prices have been in the low teens in the recent past, due to the only factor that controls prices....the MARKET.

[green team 1999]

good post,lots of info. thanks.

[The Great Satan]

Six months from now, when gas is back under $1/gallon, who is going to give two hoots about WMD or the fate of Saddam? 9/11 already seems like ancient history. You have to keep your eye on the goal, and do what you can to smooth the path from here to there. Even if it means telling a few fibs along the way.