Governor can do no wrong with Florida voters [Miami Herald: New poll on Jeb's approval rating]

The Miami Herald ^ | May 12, 2003 | PETER WALLSTEN

[summer]

Flashback to Nov 2002, as Gov Jeb Bush waves to supporters after becoming the 1st FL GOP gov
to win a 2nd term. And now, from today’s Miami Herald, 5/12/03:

"[FL Gov Jeb] Bush is riding high with some of the most adoring numbers of any second-term governor in the nation."

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Posted on Mon, May. 12, 2003

Governor can do no wrong with Florida voters

BY PETER WALLSTEN
pwallsten@herald.com

TALLAHASSEE - Telephone rates and college tuition may go up, state services could be slashed, and lawmakers are mired in personality feuds -- but through it all Gov. Jeb Bush escapes blame.

Even when his fellow Republicans in the Legislature earn humiliatingly low ratings, Bush is riding high with some of the most adoring numbers of any second-term governor in the nation.

The striking contrast -- 56 percent of registered voters in a Herald poll published Sunday approve of Bush's job performance, while 58 percent object to the performance of his friends in the Legislature – shows that the Florida governor continues to amass enormous political capital.

As a result, when the Legislature returns to Tallahassee today at Bush's demand to finalize a $52 billion budget, the governor will enjoy more power than at any point over the past six months of GOP feuding to force leading lawmakers into a deal.

HAS LEVERAGE

If his good fortunes persist, the Florida governor would again become a leading surrogate next year to help reelect his brother, nationally and in his own politically important home state.

''He has enormous leverage now,'' said Gov. Bush's GOP pollster, Neil Newhouse, referring to the poll results.

The survey is likely to fuel speculation among leading conservatives that the governor is emerging as one of their best hopes to succeed his own brother and retain the White House in 2008 -- a desire expressed most recently in a Weekly Standard column penned by the head of the powerful GOP business group Club for Growth.

The poll of 600 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points, was conducted Tuesday through Thursday for The Herald, The St. Petersburg Times and The Palm Beach Post. It was handled jointly by Democratic pollster Rob Schroth and Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway.

Analysts say Bush's ratings are unusually high for an incumbent governor at a time when most state and local leaders are facing economic -- and political -- turmoil. Typically, voters blame the more recognizable governor -- not obscure lawmakers -- for cuts to services and other problems.

OTHER STATES

In Ohio, half the voters in one poll disapproved of Republican Gov. Bob Taft's job performance, while 55 percent approved of the legislature. The economy has left approval ratings tumbling for other reelected governors, too, like New York's George Pataki, Connecticut's John Rowland and California's Gray Davis.

So what does Jeb Bush have that those other guys don't?

For starters, Bush is a Bush. He is the only governor who can stand with the wartime president in public and share stories about Mom, the popular former first lady. He is the only governor who can meet starry-eyed constituents in his own capital and hear them say, as they often do, ``Tell your brother we support him.''

The president's approval in Florida, according to the poll, stands at 60 percent -- high enough that he defeats Florida's senior U.S. senator, Bob Graham, in a hypothetical head-to-head presidential matchup by nine points.

''The voters remain very loyal to the Bush brand,'' Conway said.

That, experts say, is especially true post-9/11, as President Bush's popularity continues to leave a unique brand of hand-me-down coattails to his younger brother. ''I have always believed that a good deal of [Jeb Bush's] popularity is derived from his brother,'' Schroth said.

The brothers' shared political identity also extends to their polarization of Florida voters. In both cases, more than one in three Florida voters disapprove of their performance, with blacks, seniors and Democrats expressing especially strong negative feelings.

'PRECARIOUS' SPOT

The poll also shows that the public is troubled by two major initiatives backed by Jeb Bush, one that would loosen pollution standards in the Everglades and another that would raise phone rates.

Those negatives, says Schroth, put both Bushes in a ''precarious'' stance going into the 2004 campaign.

Jeb Bush strategists argue that his popularity stems not from his brother's postwar glow, but from his own unique relationship with voters in his state.

''We've seen in the past that Florida voters draw a pretty sharp distinction between Jeb and his brother,'' Newhouse said. ``Whether he's Jeb Smith or Jeb Bush doesn't matter.''

[summer]

Jeb Bush strategists argue that his popularity stems not from his brother's postwar glow, but from his own unique relationship with voters in his state.

''We've seen in the past that Florida voters draw a pretty sharp distinction between Jeb and his brother,'' Newhouse said. ``Whether he's Jeb Smith or Jeb Bush doesn't matter.''

I agree. I think this is one time the "stragegists," as quoted above, are actually correct. And, it comes as no surprise to me that a new poll would show FL voters continue to "adore" FL's favorite gov, Jeb Bush! :)

That said, there is more good news in FL, this time for the governor's brother, GW. I must say I found such news, below, somewhat of a surprise, as I thought Graham would be stronger. However, a recent FL poll shows that right now:

US Senator Bob Graham is nowhere near beating GW in FL.

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Graham trails Bush in Florida

A state poll shows more Floridians would vote for President Bush over Sen. Bob Graham.

By ADAM C. SMITH, Times Political Editor
© St. Petersburg Times
published May 12, 2003

Sen. Bob Graham says he has the best chance of defeating President Bush, but a new poll shows Florida's most popular Democrat can't even beat him in his home state today.

...A strong 60 percent of Florida voters approve of President Bush's job performance, which is slightly less than national polls have found and about the same approval Bush enjoyed in a similar poll last October. The president's brother, Gov. Jeb Bush, enjoys similarly high approval ratings....

To see the rest of the above St. Petersburg Times article, click here.

[summer]

I meant to type: "strategists"

[summer]

FYI. :)

[votelife]

as a Floridian I thank you for keeping us up to date on Jeb!

[summer]

My pleasure, votelife. Thanks for your post here. :)

[Cicero]

It's much to early to talk about a successor to Bush, but we certainly don't want to return to politics as usual after he retires. The war against Islamic terrorism will not be finished before 2008, China will still be a threat, and the damage done to our judiciary and our society by the leftist scum of the 60s will still need undoing.

I like Jeb Bush, and so far I don't see any equally attractive alternative.

[rvoitier]

Hey Terry 'Don't use that landing in a photo-op' McCauliffe:
Why not overspend in Florida again next year to take Jeb out. Bwaahhh!

[summer]

I respectfully disagree with your assessment there, though I have heard it from a handfull before. Gov Bush is a deserving candidate to consider, if he chooses to run for president in 2008. He did not choose his last name.

[summer]

OK, I can not type at all today, as I meant to type: </i>handful</i>

[summer]

OK, I can not type at all today, as I meant to type: handful

[summer]

FYI. :)

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Gov Bush is a deserving candidate to consider, if he chooses to run for president in 2008. He did not choose his last name."

---

I agree. I think Jeb would be the frontrunner for 2008 if his brother wasn't president right now. He's an extremely popular "compassionate conservative" governor of a large, politically crucial state from a region that the GOP must pretty much sweep in order to win the presidency in 2008. And the fact that he speaks unaccented Spanish and is married to a Mexican will surely be helpful not only in Florida, but in New Mexico, California and other states in which Hispanics could cast the deciding votes. And he certainly has the connections to fundraise with the big boys. If his name was Jeb Prescott, he'd be tough to beat in 2008. As Jeb Bush, he's still our best candidate.

[summer]

RE your post #13 - I think it definately will be Senator Hillary Clinton as the Dem presidential candidate in 2008. And, since her last name is "Clinton" it won't matter at all to voters that her [potential] opponent's last name is "Bush."

[summer]

Thanks for your post here. BTW, while all the "professional pundits" were saying throughout the FL gov race that Gov Bush might "lose," I kept saying on FR: Bush is going to win in a LANDSLIDE.No one else predicted that, but I did, and I don't mind pointing out here that I was right. I don't mention this fact to boast, but to predict yet again: If it is Gov Bush in 2008, then, IMO, you are going to see yet another landslide victory for the GOP. Because Gov Bush is an appealing and attractive candidate to many voters who in the past have voted Dem (Hispanics, women, etc.) -- even though Gov Bush is more of a conservative than GW or his father.

[summer]

FYI.

[summer]

FYI - Jan 2002 -- How you can help re-elect Jeb in a landslide....

:)

[jalisco555]

Hey, Summer, can you maybe talk Jeb into moving to New York? Please?