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WHO: Drop in Beijing SARS Cases May Be Due to Misdiagnosis
Doctor's Guide News ^
| May 16, 2003
Posted on 05/16/2003 2:47:13 PM PDT by EternalHope
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Clinicians were also basing their decision to exclude patients as probable SARS cases simply because they had not had any known previous contact with a SARS case a definition used in areas with few SARS cases. Given the relatively large number of SARS cases in Beijing, such a criterion cannot be used, Dr Chin said. In other words, the Beijing numbers are utterly worthless. (As if we didn't already know...)
To: EternalHope
A study of clinical progression in 75 SARS patients, published in today's Lancet by a Hong Kong laboratory in the WHO network, describes three clinical stages in patients from the Amoy Gardens cluster. In the mostly uniform three-stage pattern, the first week of illness was characterized by fever, myalgia, and other symptoms that generally improved after a few days. In the second week of illness, when infectivity is greatest, patients frequently experienced recurrence of fever, diarrhoea, and oxygen desaturation. In this study, 20% of the patients progressed to a third phase, characterized by acute respiratory distress syndrome necessitating ventilatory support. In the first phase patients often seem to be getting better.
The second phase, however, is the most infectious. (The underline and bold is mine.)
Now, considering when SARS is most infectious...
Patients with milder symptoms start off being isolated as suspect cases. But after their condition improves, they end up being sent to general medical wards, where they could infect other patients. Others may be sent home too early. "They may not need to be hospitalized but they could still be infectious," Dr Chin said.
In other words, the Chicoms are sending 'em home or putting 'em with other patients when they seem to be getting better (phase I). If they really have SARS, however, that is just turning 'em loose right before they are likely to become the most infectious.
Meanwhile, the streets are being sprayed with "disinfectant". As nearly as I can tell, the Chicoms are clueless.
2
posted on
05/16/2003 3:04:18 PM PDT
by
EternalHope
(Boycott everything French forever.)
To: EternalHope
And all the death rates are screwed when you compare deaths vs. recovered if you count them as recovered and send them home during the second relapse - and that's when they're at their most infectious. It would seem like the Chinese government is determined to send them home, there's no problem here, they're healed.
3
posted on
05/16/2003 3:27:05 PM PDT
by
xJones
To: EternalHope
Thank you for that very clear explanation. I read your posts often and find them very reasoned.
It seems a recipe for disaster.
Huck
To: I'll be your Huckleberry
Thanks for the kind words!
5
posted on
05/16/2003 8:36:05 PM PDT
by
EternalHope
(Boycott everything French forever.)
To: Judith Anne; Mother Abigail; CathyRyan; per loin; Dog Gone; Petronski; InShanghai; Ma Li; ...
Ping.
To: EternalHope; aristeides
Excellent description of the three stages of SARS, that's the first I've read about those, so clearly put. I appreciate the pings to all the threads, wish I had more time to reply and offer my thoughts...
One thing I am certain of, we can never trust the Chinese numbers. And truthfully, I don't know that we'll be able to trust the numbers from ANY country, because governments seem to have an interest in minimizing the hazard due to economic concerns. That's discouraging, considering it may be here in the fall.
To: Judith Anne
Let's hope SARS is not here already. I was disturbed by that mysteriously deleted thread yesterday alleging there are many cases of what may be SARS in a Northern California hospital. And I have been FReepmailed that there is a case in a D.C. hospital, which to my knowledge the media have not reported.
To: aristeides
Whatever happened to that? I really wanted to read it.
9
posted on
05/17/2003 7:50:21 AM PDT
by
riri
To: aristeides
Oh, well. There will be more articles about that hospital if there is anything to it, I'm thinking.
To: riri
The moderator said there was no source for the thread, but the poster claimed to have spoken to somebody in the hospital on the phone.
To: aristeides
I really liked FR better before all the deletions and hand slapping by moderators. Sure, some BS would make it's way through here but...
12
posted on
05/17/2003 7:59:09 AM PDT
by
riri
To: riri
I wish I could be sure there isn't some policy to suppress the worst news about SARS. Actions like that deletion only fuel such suspicions.
To: aristeides
Really, there's nothing we can do about SARS proactively except be as well informed as possible. Here's hoping research comes up with better treatments, that it doesn't get a foothold somewhere outside China, and that this fall and winter brings the good old-fashioned flu, and nothing more.
To: Judith Anne
It would be a good idea if the person who posted the report about the northern california hospital outbreak would repost it as a reply to this or another new sars thread.
15
posted on
05/17/2003 8:32:41 AM PDT
by
dc-zoo
To: dc-zoo
Agreed.
To: dc-zoo
The poster had a screen name like "watch 123" or "watcher 123". But the system now says there is nobody with either name. More mystery.
To: dc-zoo; Judith Anne; aristeides; riri; Watchman123
It would be a good idea if the person who posted the report about the northern california hospital outbreak would repost it as a reply to this or another new sars thread. The poster was "Watchman123". It was unclear to me if he was saying he personally made the call, or was repeating something he had heard. The thread is gone, so I can't re-read it to be sure either.
It's the kind of info that would be extremely explosive if true. It could also make FR look very bad if it turned out to be nothing unusual.
It could be an internet hoax, or simply a hospital spokesman who doesn't realize how alarming an answer like, "Sorry, that's confidential information," can be.
Personally, I would like to see at least two Freepers make the same telephone call, each of whom would then report what they heard. For that to happen, however, Watchman123 would have to say which hospital to call.
18
posted on
05/17/2003 9:52:53 AM PDT
by
EternalHope
(Boycott everything French forever.)
To: EternalHope
SARS Mortality Rates [reflects treatment] Based on World Health Organization daily tables (Revised: May 17 pm) |
Area |
Recoveries to date |
Deaths to date |
Projected Future** Death Rate |
|
Active Cases still in Danger |
Projected Future Deaths |
Projected Cumulative Mortality |
China |
2009 |
282 |
27.3% |
|
2918 |
798 |
20.7% |
Taiwan |
50 |
37 |
87.9% |
|
221 |
132 |
54.9% |
Hong Kong |
1191 |
243 |
12.1% |
|
276 |
33 |
16.1% |
elsewhere [30 countries] |
429 |
63 |
2.5% |
|
76 |
2 |
11.4% |
World-wide [all 33 countries] |
3679 |
625 |
|
|
3491 |
834 |
18.7% |
Future deaths are a combination of methods formerly used here.................. The 1st method compared 7-day deaths to 7-day recoveries ...................... The 2nd method was based on findings from the Imperial College of London that deaths take 12 days longer on average than recoveries on average and compared TOTAL history of deaths (to date)................................. to TOTAL history of recoveries (as of 12 days ago).............................. ** Newest method compares RECENT history of deaths (12 days).................. to RECENT recoveries (as of 12 days ago).........................................
|
To: blam; Judith Anne; jonathonandjennifer; Mr. Mulliner; Prince Charles; Dog Gone; thinktwice; ...
SARS - Treatment/Containment tables - updated with Friday and Saturday numbers
here
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