The issue is within the business community. Most larger corporations lease their computers w/ 3 year leases, and rarely, if ever, buy out the lease. So every 3 years, they get new computers. When MS phases out Win2K, like they did with Win9x, there simply won't be a choice. They'll be forced into either XP or the later versions, just like now, they're offering Win2K on business machines as a special order.Or they'll go Linux. A lot of companies are already revolting against Microsoft for the years of monopolistic BS they've pulled like the stuff you note above (neither of my parents' companies have ever officially moved beyond Win98SE); who knows how much better Linux might be two years from now.
Till the John Q. Public learns how to use Linux and it can run the Office Suite no one is going to pack up and move.