Millions to tackle China's SARS threat

Military commanders in the countryside surrounding Beijing have mobilised 5 million reservist soldiers and militia members to run health checkpoints and alert villagers to a rising threat from severe acute respiratory syndrome.

The World Health Organisation has added Hebei province's 68 million people to its travel advice list, warning against non-essential travel to the northern region of farmland and industrial towns because of a sudden doubling in SARS infections to nearly 200 cases, including eight deaths.

The United Nations health agency has also cautioned that an apparent drop in new SARS cases reported from Beijing may be due to misdiagnosis rather than containment of the disease. Beijing reported 28 new probable SARS cases at the weekend. Saturday was the seventh consecutive day that the city has reported fewer than 50 probable infections. This follows weeks in which cases jumped by 100 a day.

The WHO believes mild cases of SARS are not being included in reported figures. Doctor Daniel Chin, leading the WHO team of specialists investigating SARS in Beijing, said any misdiagnosis could be because of "confusion over the case definition, not because clinicians were trying to hide cases".

Villagers around Beijing have formed local watchgroups since the central Government abandoned a cover-up of the extent of the SARS epidemic in the capital on April 18. In one village, lookouts have been ringing a temple bell when a car with Beijing number plates comes in and loudspeakers warn residents to don masks.

In others, vigilantes turn back Beijing cars or order them to drive through village limits without stopping.

The disease has spread anyway. According to the official Xinhua news agency, the Hebei Military District has organised more than 5 million reservists and militia members to "earnestly throw themselves into the fight against atypical pneumonia", by forming propaganda groups to spread knowledge about SARS in 50,000 villages.

Other teams are taking daily checks on the state of health among Hebei's peasants, their whereabouts and people with whom they are in contact. The reservists and militia members are also helping run 1200 checkpoints to monitor the temperatures of travellers.

The WHO has issued travel warnings for seven other Chinese regions: Taiwan, Hong Kong, Beijing, Guangdong, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Tianjin. A worrying trend is that more farmers are getting SARS, accounting for about 10 per cent of cases in northern Shanxi province, the third worst affected area after Beijing and Guangdong, say epidemiologists.

Taiwan is reeling from a sudden upsurge in SARS cases, which led to the resignation on Saturday of its health minister, who took responsibility.

Taiwan yesterday reported its biggest one-day jump in new cases and said five more people had died. The new figures take the island's death toll to 41 and the number of its SARS infections to 344.

A department store in Taipei was shut down and a hospital in Kaohsiung suspended outpatient and emergency services after 110 of its staff were put in quarantine with SARS-like symptoms.

New health minister Chen Chien-jen, a leading epidemiologist, immediately called on people to be more honest. "Sick people have been hiding their symptoms and starting outbreaks at hospitals," Dr Chen said.

Hong Kong may be coming out of the epidemic, which has taken 247 lives over the past eight weeks. It reported only four new cases yesterday, the 15th day it has reported single-digit increases. The WHO's head of communicable diseases, David Heymann, told Hong Kong's Cable Television from Geneva that the eight-week outbreak "has come under control in Hong Kong and that soon there will be no new cases".

Meanwhile, Beijing contiues its farsical issuing of numbers that show SARS to be nearly defeated. I suspect that they will announce a "zero new cases in Beijing" day within the next four days. Below is what I believe to be their pre-decided, announced number of new cases in Beijing.

The Chinese Five / Five Cure for SARS in Beijing
	Five 1	Five 2	Five 3	Five 4	Five 5
Day 1	152	69	48	39	7
Day 2	101	98	54	27
Day 3	122	70	42	28
Day 4	96	97	48	19
Day 5	114	94	48	17

Averages	117	85.6	48	26

SARS Mortality Rates [reflects treatment] Based on World Health Organization daily tables (Revised: May 20 am)
Area	Recoveries to date	Deaths to date	Projected Future** Death Rate	Active Cases still in Danger	Projected Future Deaths	Projected Cumulative Mortality
China	2148	289	25.0%	2799	700	18.9%
Taiwan	55	40	85.3%	249	151	55.5%
Hong Kong	1213	251	11.3%	250	28	16.3%
elsewhere [30 countries]	437	63	2.1%	70	1	11.2%
World-wide [all 33 countries]	3853	643		3368	731	17.5%
** Future deaths are based on findings from the Imperial College of London...... that deaths take 12 days longer on average than recoveries on average..... = (12-day recent deaths) / (12-day recent deaths + prior 12-day recoveries)

Taiwan's high death rate is because they only report 'probable' cases when they are in CRITICAL condition.
Taiwan maintains 'probable' and 'suspected' categories, AND ALSO a 'pending' category (409 patients), where they wait to see the severity of the symptoms before calling a patient a 'probable' case. Even their 'suspected' case counts are unusually high (367 patients)
Taiwan's 'probable' count is most likely several hundred higher by WHO standards.
China's numbers also seem underreported.

Trend - Active Cases Still in Danger [reflects containment]
Date	China	Taiwan	Hong Kong	elsewhere 30 countries	World-wide all 33 countries
May 4 (est.)	2507	75	532	113	3227
May 5	2641	83	520	114	3358
May 6	2735	81	495	112	3423
May 7	2854	88	466	115	3523
May 8	2945	92	445	106	3588
May 9	2993	110	442	101	3646
May 10	3029	128	427	99	3683
May 11 (est.)	3049	133	413	97	3692
May 12	3068	138	399	95	3700
May 13	3061	153	374	89	3677
May 14	3046	170	343	85	3644
May 15	3034	196	309	78	3617
May 16	2969	193	297	79	3538
May 17	2918	221	276	76	3491
May 18 (est.)	2870	254	263	73	3460
May 19	2799	249	250	70	3368
May 20	...	268	...	...	...
(includes new daily cases... excludes cases resolved by death or recovery) (some tables are supplemented with government data when WHO data is missing)

I believe China's numbers are highly fictional, and Taiwan's count should be hundreds higher.
Taiwan's day in the green on the 19th was a one-day fluke. I peeked across the date-line for the 20th, and Taiwan was up again (268)
Taiwan's active cases are still exploding, and most of these are in critical condition.
May 20 (268) active cases
Apr 30 (41)

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