After that disastrous meeting with April Glaspie in 1990, I can't imagine Saddam Hussein would be dumb enough to place any trust in the U.S. unless he held a very potent club over our head.
. . . he seemed to actually think he could forestall a war in the UN and/or get us bogged down in a Mogadishu like "quagmire" and come out of it relatively unscathed (tens of thousands of dead Iraqi troops, or so; him, still in power).
He obviously had no plans for a quagmire, since his military forces seem to have vanished from Iraq and he was effectively out of power about 30 minutes into the war.
. . . surely you're not SERIOUSLY questioning the deterrence value of threatening to nuke someone?
Threatening to nuke someone only has a deterrence value if his survival is at stake. If he perceives that he is going to die anyway, then there is no deterrance value. For evidence of this, see the blank page in any law enforcement manual under the sub-section titled "Deterring Someone Hell-Bent on Murder-Suicide."
Clearly you need to "educate" me some more: what on earth are you talking about?
There was a story posted here sometime this morning along these lines. Apparently, that initial "attack on Saddam's bunker" on Day 1 of the military campaign wasn't actually made on a bunker at all. In fact, nobody seems to know who or what the target was.
I have no way of knowing but if you want my wild hunch (and, you seem to) I suspect that he is dead, under the ground somewhere.
Maybe. I think it is just as likely that he is now the proud owner of a new 7-11 franchise in Paterson, New Jersey.
What you can or can not imagine has no bearing on any real-world situation. In any event, this is not about whether Saddam would "trust" the U.S., it's about whether he would prefer being nuked immediately to taking his chances in a bunker against conventional attacks. To review: (1) you're trying to convince me (as I recall the thread of this dumb exchange) that to threaten nukes against Saddam could not possibly deter him from using WMDs against us, because all things considered he really wouldn't mind getting nuked, or something. At the same time, (2) it's not clear, then, just exactly how it is you think we deterred Saddam from using WMDs, if indeed we did, in 1991. And let's remember, (3) your whole purpose for trying to convince me that threat-of-nuke is no deterrent for Saddam is because you think we gave him some appealing carrot for not WMD'ing our troops, but (4) you have no basis whatsoever for saying this and (5) it's not exactly clear what you think this carrot could have been.
Does that about sum it up? Do you really want to continue down this road, or do you see how silly this is starting to sound?
[. . . he seemed to actually think he could forestall a war in the UN and/or get us bogged down in a Mogadishu like "quagmire" and come out of it relatively unscathed (tens of thousands of dead Iraqi troops, or so; him, still in power).] He obviously had no plans for a quagmire,
That is simply untrue, apparently you were asleep for the last three months. Quagmire (and diplomacy) was basically his only "plan", he wanted Baghdad to be like Stalingrad (the "five-ringed" defense of Baghdad, suicide attacks, having his troops view Blackhawk Down and Enemy at the Gates in preparation, etc.)
He obviously had no plans for a quagmire, since his military forces seem to have vanished from Iraq
Uh, the fact that many of his forces chickened out and went home doesn't prove that he didn't want them to stand and fight and give their lives for a "quagmire". Sheesh, you realize how dumb that reasoning sounds, right? You seem to make no distinction between "Saddam" and "Saddam's army"... if "Saddam's army" fails to do something, it just proves that Saddam never intended to do it in the first place, because, uh... Saddam's army is just an arm of Saddam and.. they completely obey him to their death..? But that flies in the face of facts. We know that much of his army stood down and went home.
That doesn't mean this is what Saddam wanted!! The L.A. Lakers lost in the playoffs. Does that prove that Phil Jackson wanted to lose or never had a plan for winning??
Threatening to nuke someone only has a deterrence value if his survival is at stake. If he perceives that he is going to die anyway, then there is no deterrance value.
Slight amendment: if he perceives that he is going to die anyway in the same amount of time.
If I gave you a choice of killing you now or waiting a week, which would you choose? (hint: if you had an extra week, you could run, or hide, or kill me, or get help, or something)
And by the way, what on earth makes you think that he "perceive[d] that he is going to die anyway"? His every action was consistent with a belief that he would be able to survive, somehow.
For evidence of this, see the blank page in any law enforcement manual under the sub-section titled "Deterring Someone Hell-Bent on Murder-Suicide."
Irrelevant unless you can prove that Saddam was "Hell-Bent on Murder-Suicide."
[how we had no intention of killing Saddam] There was a story posted here sometime this morning along these lines.
Ohhhh I see well that explains it all then. Yessir, if there was a "story" (from where? Debka?) posted here, then it must be true. (rolls eyes)
Apparently, that initial "attack on Saddam's bunker" on Day 1 of the military campaign wasn't actually made on a bunker at all. In fact, nobody seems to know who or what the target was.
So then what are you talking about? I thought you were going to explain how you knew that we had no intention of killing Saddam. Yet here you are talking about whether a place we bombed the hell out of was a "bunker" or some other kind of construction. Strange.
[have no way of knowing but if you want my wild hunch (and, you seem to) I suspect that he is dead, under the ground somewhere.] Maybe. I think it is just as likely that he is now the proud owner of a new 7-11 franchise in Paterson, New Jersey.
I'll keep that in mind. What you, personally, think to be likely or unlikely is oh-so-important to me. In fact I'm making a note of it in my diary and I'll be telling all my friends. Toodles,