An enduring majority: Voting patterns favor the GOP

Washington Times ^ | Thursday, June 5, 2003 | Gary J. Andres

[JohnHuang2]

The dusty volume with yellowed pages sat innocuously on the gray metal shelf of a small local library. Who knew it could decipher 25 years of American political history — well almost.

In 1969, Kevin Phillips wrote a prophetic book called the "Emerging Republican Majority," predicting a major political realignment in America, resulting in significant gains in the GOP's political strength. Mr. Phillips argued that conservative voters, particularly in the South and West, would shift allegiance from the Democrat to Republican Party, serving as the core of a new and potent electoral coalition.

[JohnHuang2]

Thursday, June 5, 2003

Quote of the Day by Senator Pardek

[jehosophat]

This is all fine and good until we vote ourselves out of office in a flood of immigration.

[KC_Conspirator]

In 1969, Kevin Phillips wrote a prophetic book called the "Emerging Republican Majority,"...

I rememebr some idiot liberal professors wrote a recent book which proclaimed an emerging democrat majority, yet the 2002 elections already proved this wishful thinking false.

[fporretto]

The ticket-splitting matter is particularly important, as it cuts across one of the old verities of federal electioneering: "Voters vote their convictions for President, but their pocketbooks for Congress."

For a while the Democrats had the electorate persuaded that the principal function of a federal legislator was to secure a big chunk of the federal treasury for local use. The Contract With America, coupled with a realization that Robert Byrd-style politics was spending the country broke, seems to have changed that. Thank God!

But watch out. Just now we have some galvanizing issues before us, and a not-terribly-vibrant economy in which much of the middle class feels little or no stake. If things get fat and happy again, or if the electorate concludes that the Bush Administration is somehow responsible for our economic doldrums, the tide could turn toward the redistributionist politics of the Democrats once more.

Freedom, Wealth, and Peace,
Francis W. Porretto
Visit The Palace Of Reason:
http://palaceofreason.com

[GraniteStateConservative]

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0743226917/102-6847727-3084166?vi=glance

Demographic trends still support a shift around 2008. The country is becoming less white-- and so, less Republican. Also, we didn't really change many minority voter minds last year-- they just didn't bother to show up and vote. The presidential election will probably raise turnout among minority voters.

[KC_Conspirator]

Party registration has dropped from 39% to 37% for democrats and gained for Republicans from 32% to 33% in the in the past 30 years (while I think that 1% more list themselves as independent). That is the trend. These jokers totally ignore Republican gains since Nixon in their book.

[Lorianne]

Consider this:

____Nationwide, there are 9 million more women than men registered to vote

____More women go to the polls than men.

____The percentage of women voters voting for Republican candidates this past season (11/2002) increased more than the percentage of male voters voting Republican.

Take Florida for example. Jeb Bush got 49% of the female vote and John Sununu got 46% of the female vote. Given the voter registration and voting turnout disparity between men and women (above), it is probable that each candidate got more female votes than males votes overall. Given that more women voted Republican than in the past, female votes were decisive in Jeb Bush's reelection. The same happened across the country in other races.

Detailed analysis of voting patterns since the last election (11/2002) show that Republicans did better than usual among female voters and about the same among male voters (compared to past elections). The percentage of males voting Republican remained basically constant. But the percentage of females voting Republican increased significantly. This means women voters were a decisive factor in the so-called Republican "sweep" in Congress and in governorships. There were also some Republican "sweeps" in state legislatures.

Women are decisive in any case because more women vote and male/female is the largest block split of the population. Women were decisive for Republicans in the last election for two reasons: 1. the percent increase voting Republican was greater among women and 2. more women vote.

Clearly the Republicans should capitalize on their apparent bump in popularity among women if they want the same or better results in 2004

[CPT Clay]

bttt

[rightofrush]

There's always a chance that they may be satisfied with Atzlan and let us keep the rest of the country.