Women voters making some changes: Polls tilt toward Bush on concerns over domestic security

WASHINGTON, June 10 - With the war in Iraq over and the United States starting to refocus again on domestic issues, will President Bush's popularity in post-9/11 America translate into more votes in 2004? Republicans hope it will mean more women voters. NBC poll numbers show women are more supportive of the president on security issues and war.

JUST ASK CARRIE FRASER. The Michigan mother of two was a staunch supporter of Al Gore three years ago. But that was then.

"I told my neighbor I was considering voting for George Bush, and she gasped because she knows my views," she said. What's turned this Michigan Democrat and 'soccer mom' into a potential Bush voter are her fears.

Martha Burk, who heads the National Council of Women’s Organizations, an umbrella group representing 170 women’s groups, doubts voting patterns will change at all next year, saying by next year women will still judge the president on the economy.

Women aren't that stupid (at least most of them aren't). A booming economy, free healthcare, overfunded schools mean absolutely nothing if your children are dead of smallpox, or an exploding nutcase, or your husband is permanently crippled in a nervegas attack.

This country is fighting for it's life, not just against the terrorists, but against an uncaring europe as well. Women know this and they know that Bush will win, but only if he's re-elected.

Look at the democrats running this year, do you really think any woman with her head screwed on straight would trade Bush for any one of them? Even worse, Hillary?

Consider this:

____Nationwide, there are 9 million more women than men registered to vote

____More women go to the polls than men.

____The percentage of women voters voting for Republican candidates this past season (11/2002) increased more than the percentage of male voters voting Republican.

Take Florida for example. Jeb Bush got 49% of the female vote and John Sununu got 46% of the female vote. Given the voter registration and voting turnout disparity between men and women (above), it is probable that each candidate got more female votes than males votes overall. Given that more women voted Republican than in the past, female votes were decisive in Jeb Bush's reelection. The same happened across the country in other races.

Detailed analysis of voting patterns since the last election (11/2002) show that Republicans did better than usual among female voters and about the same among male voters (compared to past elections). The percentage of males voting Republican remained basically constant. But the percentage of females voting Republican increased significantly. This means women voters were a decisive factor in the so-called Republican "sweep" in Congress and in governorships. There were also some Republican "sweeps" in state legislatures. Women are decisive in any case because more women vote. Women were decisive for Republicans in the last election for two reasons: 1. the percent increase voting Republican was greater among women and 2. more women vote.

Clearly the Republicans should capitalize on their apparent bump in popularity among women if they want the same or better results in 2004.

Also, one thing women don't like is to have their contributions belittled or ignored (not to mention calls for the repeal of the 19th by the Conservative fringe). Republicans should publically acknowledge and thank women for their increased support last time out.

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